Tanko - CBB Plays 2024-2025

[Tanko]

1/22/25

UNC Asheville vs Garner Webb

Over 161.5 -110

These teams have decent tempo 68 and 70 and they don't play defense (#246 and #329 in Def-eff).
UNC Ash vs similar opponents (Winthrop, USC Upstate, N. Florida) the totals were 177, 185, & 176.
Gardner vs similar opponents (USC Upstate, Winthrop, G. Southern) the totals were 165, 182, & 167.

When the tempo is higher than the typical NCAA game and the defense is non-existant, its time to take the over.

GL all.

 

[Tanko]

UIC vs Evansville

UIC -4.5-105

Illinois Chicago should cover this spread and increase their streak AST from 9 games to 10. Evansville is struggling this year. They are 4-6 ATS in last 10 games. They did play Belmont well in their last outing and scored 82 points at home but that's not the norm. This teams scores in the mid to low 60s on average. They are #345 in Off-eff (bottom 5%). They can play defense but typically give up around 70 points to team similar to UIC.

UIC scores in the 70+ range and when playing teams similar to Evansville reach 75+ (e.g. Valpo, Murray St, Seattle).

I can easily see a 75 - 65 game as the result tonight.

 

[Franz555]

BOL with the card today

 

[Tanko]

The little run is definitely over.

1-1 -$10 yesterday.

The Gardner-webb/ UNC Ash over wasn't even close. They only scored 114 points. It was only 9-9 at the 10 minute mark of the 1st half. These teams shot 15-20% below their normal FG average. The game tempo ended at 65 and was estimated to be 72. Everything about this game was a disaster. Both team should take the "L".

 

[BMR Genie]

The little run is definitely over.

1-1 -$10 yesterday.

The Gardner-webb/ UNC Ash over wasn't even close. They only scored 114 points. It was only 9-9 at the 10 minute mark of the 1st half. These teams shot 15-20% below their normal FG average. The game tempo ended at 65 and was estimated to be 72. Everything about this game was a disaster. Both team should take the "L".

And in their last 5 games, it was all ended up in Over. They forgot to play. tsk tsk.

Hopefully, today is the day, Tank.

 

[Tanko]

1/23/25
Middle Tenn vs Sam Houston

Middle Tenn -1.5 -108 Bookmaker

Finally found a half-decent play today. Middle Tenn (MTSU) should cover this game on the road.

• MTSU 5-2 ATS on the road vs SH 1-3 ATS at home.
• MTSU 7-2-1 ATS over last 10 vs SH 3-7 ATS.

Although the game will be high scoring, I see the difference between these two teams on the defensive side. MTSU plays much better defense (#114) than SHSU (#253) so they should be able to hold the Bearkats in check. Also, SHSU Lives on the 3-pt line (#23) and is good from that range but ,the Blue Raiders 3-pt defense is stout (#22) so I see them keeping the Bearkats opportunities down.

MTSU is beating everyone ranked worse then them and only losing to better ranked teams. I like the consistency. Simlarly, SHSU loses to teams they should lose against (i.e. better ranking).

The only concern is the FT shooting. MTSU 69% vs SHSU 71%. Not a big difference but since this expected to be a close game FT shooting could become a factor. IMO I think it will be a bigger win for MTSU (5-6 pts) than the line indicates offsetting this issue.

 

[Tanko]

Utah Valley vs Cal Baptist

Utah Valley +3.5-110

Utah Valley is on an 8 game run and 9-1 ATS. Cal Baptist isn't bad but they have been stumbling lately 3-7 ATS. Utah Valley beat this team at home already this season on Jan 11th by 6 points. I can't see a 9 point swing occurring with the momentum Utah Valley has going.

Utah Valley against similar opponents to Cal Baptists recently (Weber, Idaho St, Jax St) is 2-1. The loss was to Jax St on the road by 4.

 

[krit]

GL buddy.

Right before all the tourneys start I will have to get in here more often. I used to bet cbb so much, not anymore. But will probably tap in during conference tourneys and then the ncaa tourney.

 

[Tanko]

This one might be a little bit of a stretch so beware.
Morehead St. @ Eastern Illinois

Morehead State ML -185

Everything tells me Morehead State will beat Eastern Illinois but I'm a little worried about how E. Illinois has been able to keep games close at home AND Morehead St. not having a tendency to bury bad teams. That's why its a ML play instead of the spread.

Morehead St. has big momentum heading into this one: 8-1 SU and 7-3 ATS vs Div 1 opponents. E. Illinois has been struggling since injuries took down a couple of players in early January, dropping their last 5 and 2-6 ATS.

Both teams plays slow (tempo ~65). E. Illinois hasn't won a game with a tempo below 70 all year. Morehead St. wins slow tempo games. Over the last month and a half, the 3 games they lost were when the tempo was 69 or higher. I see this game having a tempo aroun 65.

Morehead is #1 in Ohio Valley standings at 7-1 and E. Illinois is last at 1-6.

 

[KVB]

Morehead State will always have a special place in my heart, lol. I think every guy here would have loved to attend Morehead State.

On another note, back in the day we had a local radio disc jockey his name was Craven Morehead.

lol

 

[Tanko]

On another note, back in the day we had a local radio disc jockey his name was Craven Morehead.

lol

Legenday name.

 

[Tanko]

3-0 +$300 yesterday
It was a good day.

	W-L-P	%	$	ROI
Week (Mon-Sun):	7-3-0	70.0%	+$382	ROI 35.4%
Season Total:	89-86-2	50.9%	-$-198	ROI -1.0%

 

[BMR Genie]

3-0 +$300 yesterday
It was a good day.

	W-L-P	%	$	ROI
Week (Mon-Sun):	7-3-0	70.0%	+$382	ROI 35.4%
Season Total:	89-86-2	50.9%	-$-198	ROI -1.0%

 

[keithrichard]

I been tailing you a bit as I have a big rollover to complete. Thank you sir.

 

[Tanko]

I been tailing you a bit as I have a big rollover to complete. Thank you sir.

Good to see you around KR.

I'm feeling the pressure to come through now.

 

[keithrichard]

Good to see you around KR.

I'm feeling the pressure to come through now.

I'm like this guy when it comes to college basketball so....https://youtu.be/UmzsWxPLIOo?si=ctj__fm5j_9N-1jQ

 

[keithrichard]

 

[Wagerallsports]

3-0 +$300 yesterday
It was a good day.

	W-L-P	%	$	ROI
Week (Mon-Sun):	7-3-0	70.0%	+$382	ROI 35.4%
Season Total:	89-86-2	50.9%	-$-198	ROI -1.0%

Excellent

 

[Tanko]

1/24/25
Kent St @ Ohio U

Kent St. pk

So this play is a little more about betting AGAINST Ohio U than it is betting for Kent St. Ohio U has two key players out tonight, AJ Clayton and Aidan Hadaway. That's about 30% of their offense on the sideline. Elmore James returns after being away from the team this week so he may be a little rusty as well.

A combination of 2 of these 3 players have been out during their last 2 games and it showed. They lost to a very bad E. Michigan team by 7 and a decent Akron team by 12. If two or all three were playing tonight the line would be favoring Ohio. Kent St meanwhile is coming off a win vs Toledo by 9, a team similar in pace and performance to a Ohio U team (when they don't have injuries).

Additional factors to consider:

• When Ohio U faces slower teams (w/out injuries) the games are close (e.g. C. Mich - a 2 pt game).
• Momentum: Ohio is 4-6 ATS in last 10 while Kent St is 7-3 ATS.

Even without the injuries to Ohio U, Kent St is the slightly better team this season on paper. Ohio has the better offensive stats but Kent St. has the much better defensive stats.

	Stat	Kent St.	Ohio
Data	Tempo	64.9	70.3
	KP Scr	69	71
	KP Rank	137	173
Offense	AdjOE	102.0	108.6
	eFG%	45.5	53.8
	TO%	16.4	15.9
	OR%	34.2	26.3
	FTRate	26.3	32.9
	3P%	26.8	34.3
Defense	AdjDE	99.7	108.8
	eFG%	47.5	53.2
	TO%	20.9	18.6
	OR%	28.2	28.3
	FTRate	42.4	35.9
	Adj Eff Margin	2.3	-0.2

Again, I'm basically playing the injury card here. It would be a tight game without the injuries to Ohio U. but, with them, there seems to be a clear edge for Kent St.

Of course sometimes teams step-up with key players are out, but Ohio did not do so the last two games so......

 

[Tanko]

0-1 -$110

Wow did Kent St. fail to show up last night. They lost by two but its clear why....
Stats from last night....

• FT 56% (season avg is 73%)
• FG% 35% (season avg is 45%)
• 3-Pt% 15% (season avg is 28%)
• Turnovers 19 (season avg 11)

The worst part is it wasn't that Ohio played good defense, they didn't. Kent St just played like crap. If they showed up in even one of these area they would have easily won the game.


On to today's massive slate of games.