After the massive $1 profit last week, we start a new week..
Alabama St. @Southern Univ --> Southern -4.5 -108
I'm estimating the EV on this line at -4.5 is just shy of 10%. Southern is on a roll of late, winning their last 5 in a row and 8 out of their last 10. No losses at home during that run. As a matter of fact, they have no losses at home this season.
For Ala St. this is the best team they've faced by quite a margin since Dec 29th. They are 1-3 in their last 4 and 6-4 in their last 10 games vs oppenents much weaker than Southern U. Those 4 losses were by 6, 11, 1, and 10 points.
Southern is better than Alabama St in most key metrics. Southern will likely be outrebounded by this Ala St. team but everything else indicates Southern should cover at home.
Season 160-139-11 54% $1179