I'm going with Baylor tonight.
Baylor +4
Baylor is on a nice run of late and Texas has shown a tendency to have very close games against KenPom top 25 teams, losing 3 of 5. Baylor is #14 on KenPom and has been steadly climbing KenPom ranks.
Looking at these top 25 matchups for Texas since Jan 1st
- Texas has lost 3: #1Tennesee, #17Iowa State, #25K-State with the K-state game being at Texas.
- They've won against close games #20W. Virg (by 8 but it was a 2 pt game with 3 min left), and #15TCU (won by 4).