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Tanko - 2024 MLB Plays

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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,547
CIN -125
  • Green (CIN) is pitching better than Fedde (STL) since Fedde was traded from the lowly CHW. Fedde's has a tendency to pitch much worse on the road.
  • The options for CIN out of the bullpen are much better than STL.
  • CIN-Hm Fav vs STL-Rd Dog performance is over 1 rpg delta.
  • Slight edge for CIN on momentum (6-4 last 10 vs 4-6 for STL).
  • CIN +13 run differential vs STL -14 over the last 10 days.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,547
BOS -137
This is picking the better of two struggling teams.
  • Urena (TEX) is in a bind tonight. He hasn't pitched over 4 innings since early June and the Ranger bullpen is used up from last night's 10 inning game. They need him to pitch into the 6th. I don't think he can do it effectively.
  • Crawford (BOS) has been dinged up his last 4 outtings so there is risk but 3 of those games were on the road. At home he does perform slightly better so we're banking on a decent game tonight. If he doesn't the Sox bullpen can cover. They aren't excellent but they are not as used up as the Rangers.
  • BOS-Hm Favs only win ~45% of their games. But, TEX-Rd Dogs are pitiful winning only ~30% of their games. Again we're picking the better of two "bad" teams.
  • Texas last 10 are 3-7 and 4-12 in their last 16. They are on a slide. Boston isn't a lot better but they are breaking even at 8-8 over the same period.
 
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