Tanko - 2024 MLB Plays

[JDS]

I agree. The Cardinals look good lately (don't let Flyingillini hear me say that). I wouldn't bet against them for damn sure right now. +158 looks enticing TBH.

I just hate betting into Verlander and Houston at home (I'm a homer). It just doens't feel right and I know I don't read their games in an impartial manner.

Verlander is real hit or miss this year, I’m not entirely impressed with his work. The Astros only 3-5 when he starts and 0-2 at home. Astros offense is very mid right now anyway. Jose Abreu what a disaster he has turned into for them.

 

[Tanko]

Verlander is real hit or miss this year, I’m not entirely impressed with his work. The Astros only 3-5 when he starts and 0-2 at home. Astros offense is very mid right now anyway. Jose Abreu what a disaster he has turned into for them.

THIS!
They sent him down to minors for 3 weeks to start May. He's back and he STILL SUCKS. Avg 0.200 since his return. They need to move on from him.


He was hitting AVG 0.117 before being sent down.

 

[Tanko]

1-0 +100 Yesteday. Baltimore bats came through and pitching wasn't half bad.
YTD 136-118-11, 54%, +$1543 (15.4 Units ), ROI 5.6%

 

[BMR Genie]

1-0 +100 Yesteday. Baltimore bats came through and pitching wasn't half bad.
YTD 136-118-11, 54%, +$1543 (15.4 Units ), ROI 5.6%

Great win, Tank!

Get it again today!

 

[Tanko]

NYY RL -1 -121
ARI -114

 

[Tanko]

2-0 +$200 yesterday

YTD
138-118-11, 54%
+$1,743 (17.4 Units )
ROI 6.3%

 

[flyingillini]

Great thread!

 

[BMR Genie]

2-0 +$200 yesterday

YTD
138-118-11, 54%
+$1,743 (17.4 Units )
ROI 6.3%

Another winning day!

Great thread!

Check this out Fly:

MLB 2024 Poster Records - Table

 

[Tanko]

I do not like much today.... These aren't loved by me but they'll do (barely).

CIN -124
SD RL -1 -117

GL all.

 

[JDS]

I do not like much today.... These aren't loved by me but they'll do (barely).

CIN -124
SD RL -1 -117

GL all.

Tanko how often would you say you push on that -1 RL this season ?

 

[Tanko]

Tanko how often would you say you push on that -1 RL this season ?

Let me look....

 

[Tanko]

Tanko how often would you say you push on that -1 RL this season ?

13-9-4 this year on RL -1 plays.
~ 7% ROI on these plays so far.

I usually pull this trigger instead of going RL -1.5 when:

• I feel the team will likely win but don't like to pay the high juice on the ML (>-150).
• The team appears likely to cover the -1.5 RL when looking at their margin of victory (either Hm or Away).

Also, I build the RL -1 via two plays. ML play and a RL -1.5 play on the team.
Some books offer RL -1 options but don't offer the better odds that I can get building it on my own for the same bet.

Finally, I only count it as one bet even though its two. My actual W/L and units would be higher if I counted the ML and RL-1.5 odds separately but that's not how I posted the play so I keep it as 1 play.

 

[BMR Genie]

I do not like much today.... These aren't loved by me but they'll do (barely).

CIN -124
SD RL -1 -117

GL all.

Good luck, Tank.

 

[JDS]

13-9-4 this year on RL -1 plays.
~ 7% ROI on these plays so far.

I usually pull this trigger instead of going RL -1.5 when:

• I feel the team will likely win but don't like to pay the high juice on the ML (>-150).
• The team appears likely to cover the -1.5 RL when looking at their margin of victory (either Hm or Away).

Also, I build the RL -1 via two plays. ML play and a RL -1.5 play on the team.
Some books offer RL -1 options but don't offer the better odds that I can get building it on my own for the same bet.

Finally, I only count it as one bet even though its two. My actual W/L and units would be higher if I counted the ML and RL-1.5 odds separately but that's not how I posted the play so I keep it as 1 play.

Thanks for explaining so 4 pushes through 26 games not bad.

 

[Tanko]

13-9-4 this year on RL -1 plays.
~ 7% ROI on these plays so far.

I usually pull this trigger instead of going RL -1.5 when:

• I feel the team will likely win but don't like to pay the high juice on the ML (>-150).
• The team appears likely to cover the -1.5 RL when looking at their margin of victory (either Hm or Away).

Also, I build the RL -1 via two plays. ML play and a RL -1.5 play on the team.
Some books offer RL -1 options but don't offer the better odds that I can get building it on my own for the same bet.

Finally, I only count it as one bet even though its two. My actual W/L and units would be higher if I counted the ML and RL-1.5 odds separately but that's not how I posted the play so I keep it as 1 play.

If you want to build your own RL -1 plays you can use this site to do the math for you quick.
I get tired of thinking through the math sometimes so I just use this.

Runline Calculator

Select American Lines
Put the amount to wager in and it will spit out how much to bet on the ML and RL -1.5 to get an equivalent RL -1 play and the odds for it.

 

[RRsilver]

I'm leaning Texas today. What you think Tanko?

It almost looked like the Rangers were about to turn things around after winning 5 of 6 games, but then Detroit came to town and the Rangers have now dropped the first 2 games in this series, scoring just 2 total runs.

Tigers: Kenta Maeda, who is 2-2 this season with a 6.25 ERA. In Maeda’s last start against the Red Sox, he went 4.2 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 8 hits. The last time Maeda faced the Rangers was back in April, when he gave up 5 earned runs on 7 hits in just 2.2 innings pitched.

Texas: Jose Urena to the mound, who is 1-5 this season with a 3.74 ERA. In both games against Detroit this year he gave up just 1 earned run on 4.2 innings pitched.

 

[Tanko]

I'm leaning Texas today. What you think Tanko?

It almost looked like the Rangers were about to turn things around after winning 5 of 6 games, but then Detroit came to town and the Rangers have now dropped the first 2 games in this series, scoring just 2 total runs.

Tigers: Kenta Maeda, who is 2-2 this season with a 6.25 ERA. In Maeda’s last start against the Red Sox, he went 4.2 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 8 hits. The last time Maeda faced the Rangers was back in April, when he gave up 5 earned runs on 7 hits in just 2.2 innings pitched.

Texas: Jose Urena to the mound, who is 1-5 this season with a 3.74 ERA. In both games against Detroit this year he gave up just 1 earned run on 4.2 innings pitched.

It might be a winner...

• You're right on the pitching. Urena pitches well at home but I'm not completely confident in his ability as a starter yet but he's getting there. Maeda on the road is 10.8 ERA.
• The bull-pens are about even but DET used up their best reliever, Faedo, yesterday (44 pitches) and Texas' has everyone that's worth a dime available.
• I stayed away because on the batting side, it looks even.
  Over last 10 days
  WRC 90 vs 86.
  Avg 0.296 vs 0.287
  Run Differentials 16 vs 15

Trendwise Det has slight edge.
> Texas is just below 50% at home. Det is just above 50% W/L on the road.
> Det has 3 gm streak going. Texas lost the last two to Det.

The odds have Texas at -127. I think its closer to even BUT, one caveat is that it is very hard for a road team to sweep home teams in a series. It does happen but more often it doesn't.

The batting data and trends are why I laid off this play.
GL RRsilver.

 

[Tanko]

Probably more giberish in that reply than you wanted RRsilver but, I can't help but try to be thorough.

 

[phantom888]

I do not like much today.... These aren't loved by me but they'll do (barely).

CIN -124
SD RL -1 -117

GL all.

Be lucky Mr. T!!

 

[phantom888]

Probably more giberish in that reply than you wanted RRsilver but, I can't help but try to be thorough.

That was awesome!
I read it all
Thanks Mr.T!