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SUNNY IS HERE

jamesy2422

jamesy2422

Joined
Jun 1, 2025
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4,163
I took the points with NE but everyone I talk to is telling me Seattle is going to kill them.
what i find funny is all of these people say the seahawks will dominate but the line stopped moving. for all of the people sure about the pats not being in the same class, darnold finally reaching his potential, the seahawks defense the best since the steel curtain, etc. and the line doesn't move more towards the seahawks. it actually went backwards a little and now hovers around 4.5 to 5. i thought with all the seahawks love it would reach 6 last week.

this kind of reminds me of the pats against broncos when all early action was on pats and then the broncos got the buy back.

the seahawks can easily win and i would not be surprised though.
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
61,158
what i find funny is all of these people say the seahawks will dominate but the line stopped moving. for all of the people sure about the pats not being in the same class, darnold finally reaching his potential, the seahawks defense the best since the steel curtain, etc. and the line doesn't move more towards the seahawks. it actually went backwards a little and now hovers around 4.5 to 5. i thought with all the seahawks love it would reach 6 last week.

this kind of reminds me of the pats against broncos when all early action was on pats and then the broncos got the buy back.

the seahawks can easily win and i would not be surprised though.
Seems like you could make a case for both sides, in that spot for a bettor you should lay off the game. Maybe just throw some action at some props for entertainment purposes.
 

Pimike

Pimike

Joined
Oct 30, 2021
Messages
12,142
JDs is a pervert

This is what BMR wants?
 
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phillyflyers

phillyflyers

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Aug 8, 2024
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11,100
what i find funny is all of these people say the seahawks will dominate but the line stopped moving. for all of the people sure about the pats not being in the same class, darnold finally reaching his potential, the seahawks defense the best since the steel curtain, etc. and the line doesn't move more towards the seahawks. it actually went backwards a little and now hovers around 4.5 to 5. i thought with all the seahawks love it would reach 6 last week.

this kind of reminds me of the pats against broncos when all early action was on pats and then the broncos got the buy back.

the seahawks can easily win and i would not be surprised though.
I think you meant to say the Patriots can easily win and I agree.

Vegas holding the line because they want to keep the money flowing on Seattle.
 

justlooking

justlooking

Joined
Apr 9, 2022
Messages
333
what i find funny is all of these people say the seahawks will dominate but the line stopped moving. for all of the people sure about the pats not being in the same class, darnold finally reaching his potential, the seahawks defense the best since the steel curtain, etc. and the line doesn't move more towards the seahawks. it actually went backwards a little and now hovers around 4.5 to 5. i thought with all the seahawks love it would reach 6 last week.

this kind of reminds me of the pats against broncos when all early action was on pats and then the broncos got the buy back.

the seahawks can easily win and i would not be surprised though.
You are way way overthinking things.

No one knows for sure why the books are holding the line at 4.5 to 5.

One reason could be because they don't want to get middled and they could still get middled since the opening line was -3.5 and it's now at -4.5/-5 and games do end in 4 points.

You do know that it's the sharp bets that moved the line from opening of -3.5 to -4.5/-5 immediately, right? Sharps do lose, but do you really want to go against what sharps are betting? I certainly don't.

Besides, from what I read, the spread bet is almost irrelevant in $$$ volume because of the prop bets. In other words, books aren't going to lose that much regardless of who covers on spread bets so they probably don't really care to move the line. And another thing, the public almost always love the over and I'm sure the books will make money on that if the game goes under.

They are laughing at the public that's thinking all this and that instead of keeping it simple and bet the better team which in this case is Seattle.

Also, I read that there's a lot of New England moneyline bets, so the best outcome is for Seattle to win but not cover, so they probably do have more $ bets on Seattle at the moment, but I'm sure that's all going to change by the kick off.

As a matter of fact, the bet percentage is already moving towards New England as it's now 66 to 34 at ActionNetwork. It's even less at Scoresandodds (63 to 37).

I certainly don't know where the majority of the public is siding with but at the Covers forum, there are more New England backers than there are Seattle backers.
 

Pimike

Pimike

Joined
Oct 30, 2021
Messages
12,142
You are way way overthinking things.

No one knows for sure why the books are holding the line at 4.5 to 5.

One reason could be because they don't want to get middled and they could still get middled since the opening line was -3.5 and it's now at -4.5/-5 and games do end in 4 points.

You do know that it's the sharp bets that moved the line from opening of -3.5 to -4.5/-5 immediately, right? Sharps do lose, but do you really want to go against what sharps are betting? I certainly don't.

Besides, from what I read, the spread bet is almost irrelevant in $$$ volume because of the prop bets. In other words, books aren't going to lose that much regardless of who covers on spread bets so they probably don't really care to move the line. And another thing, the public almost always love the over and I'm sure the books will make money on that if the game goes under.

They are laughing at the public that's thinking all this and that instead of keeping it simple and bet the better team which in this case is Seattle.

Also, I read that there's a lot of New England moneyline bets, so the best outcome is for Seattle to win but not cover, so they probably do have more $ bets on Seattle at the moment, but I'm sure that's all going to change by the kick off.

As a matter of fact, the bet percentage is already moving towards New England as it's now 66 to 34 at ActionNetwork. It's even less at Scoresandodds (63 to 37).

I certainly don't know where the majority of the public is siding with but at the Covers forum, there are more New England backers than there are Seattle backers.
Great post!
 

Pimike

Pimike

Joined
Oct 30, 2021
Messages
12,142
In big games like the super bowl id have to say dogs mostly cover
One thing that is a fact, the points mean nothing most of the time the favorite covers or they lose outright so you just pick who you like
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
81,203
New England a tremendous play if you could get 5 or 5.5
5 & 9 are one of the most irrelevant numbers in football. I might hit Seattle -5.5 +110 in-fact.
But has anyone checked the updated numbers the past couple of years with coaches throwing a wrench into things with all of their analytics & trying to make up for lost scoring opportunities?
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
61,158
But has anyone checked the updated numbers the past couple of years with coaches throwing a wrench into things with all of their analytics & trying to make up for lost scoring opportunities?
Good question Wags took the liberty to check this out myself manually and not rely on AI and their bullshit data "some times". Well in the playoffs this year there has not been one single game ending in 5 or 9 points. As far as the season goes with nearly 300 games played there was only 8 games that ended in 5 or 9. That's less than one half of 1%.
 
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