NFC Divisional Round
49ers +7.5 -108 (1.5 units)
I have Seattle rated as the top team in the NFL, and obviously wouldn't be surprised if they win this game, but I think this is too many points.
I think the 49ers are a good example of an edge I have found historically in football at times-- coaching being undervalued. The Wild Card win was a prime example of that, given how big of an advantage San Francisco had -- not only at head coach, but also at the coordinator level. I don't think the coaching advantage is quite as big as this time (nor does any sane observer), but I do think Kyle and Saleh's efforts with the squad are underrated. This team is mentally tough and plays with an edge -- starting from Purdy and CMC and going all the way down the roster.
There's also the misconception here about Seattle's home-field advantage. They've been good everywhere this season for the most part (f***, they're 14-3) but they've tended to perform better on the road (for the last 2 seasons). Gonna be a loud stadium, but Niners have arguably the best traveling fan base in the league. There's gonna be a lot of 49er Faithful in the stands.
Then you have Sam Darnold in a playoff situation. We have to give credit to the guy where it's due -- 28-6 in the last two regular seasons. But big-game shaky-ness is a thing, and he is definitely one of those guys that needs to prove it on this level. There's always going to be that skepticism. Even in their 1-seed clinching win, he got away with some very shaky throws. Think you have to figure he's gonna give a feisty Niner team some opportunities, even if Niners struggle to rush him.
The market I think is overvaluing the Week 18 game. Seattle won that soundly, but it's hard to beat a team twice in three weeks - plus it being a divisional rival on top. Seattle is a better, healthier team -- don't need to elaborate on that much -- but think this is too many points. I actually think San Francisco wins this outright, but at minimum it's a close Seahawks win.
