2-team 6-pt teaser: Michigan -1.5 & Ohio State +13 +100
The line for TCU/Michigan is tough, so I decided to approach this game a little bit differently.
TCU has been a really nice story this year, and they have proven over and over again that they aren’t a team that’s going to roll over. So I’m not confident that Michigan can simply blow them out like the line suggests. However, I do have a bit of confidence that Michigan will at the very least find a way to win.
Michigan’s defense is going to be a test that TCU simply has not come that close to confronting all year long. While there are soft spots on the perimeter, and think TCU has the playmakers to move the ball a bit through the air, it is extremely hard to execute against Michigan. You saw Michigan not long ago be content with letting Ohio State’s speed and talent at WR have its way at times between the 20s, but the Wolverines each time were able to clamp down and make plays in the red zone. They’re VERY good at doing that. TCU doesn’t quite have the speed and skill Ohio State does, so I think the odds of them consistently penetrating Michigan’s defense and, more importantly, executing consistently in the red zone is pretty low.
TCU showed some progress defensively as the year went on, but it’s no secret that they are flawed on that end of the field. I really don’t like how their front 7 matches up with Michigan’s offensive line. We have seen all year long how stellar the run blocking scheme of Michigan has been, and they truly have the ability to wear down pretty much anyone. I think in this particular case, because of the mismatch, you could see Michigan control a lot of the clock. It’s possible that the Wolverines are a little slow out of the gate offensively, but as the game wears on and fatigue sets in a bit, I expect Michigan’s offensive line to really have its way and make things frustrating for TCU. The passing game from Michigan is far from lethal, but you could see them at certain points have some big play opportunities off play action because of how good their run game performs.
The hesitance of laying 7.5 is that Michigan is the type of team that is content with playing an old school, junkyard type of ball game (side note: maybe take a peak at the under here as well). I also don’t fully trust Harbaugh in these types of games, though he is starting to restore some faith in his name. Plus, TCU has been resilient all year long and has found ways to come back when seemingly dead. They are well-coached and will play to the final whistle, and also have the explosiveness and speed to make some big plays when you least expect it.
All that said, there are plenty of arguments to really like Michigan. So them essentially winning the game outright — what we need for this teaser — seems like a solid approach to this game
Obviously I’ve hashed out reasons to like Ohio State at 7, so at 13 I’m going to really like them. Hopefully they do their job and we cash this one
Good luck
