Stormtrooper8 NFL 2023

[stormtrooper8]

Rest of Week 1 (no write ups)

Bucs +5.5 -108
Dolphins +3 -104
Cowboys -3 -114

 

[stormtrooper8]

In summary for Week 1:


Texans +10 -107
49ers -1.5 -115
Bucs +5.5 -108
Dolphins +3 -104
Cowboys -3 -114


Good luck

 

[stormtrooper8]

Don't remember the last time I had a winning Week 1. Always sucks for me

Takes a little of the Burrow sucking sting out


BTW: I will be pounding the Bengals and Chiefs in Week 2. Don't even need to look at the lines

 

[Wagerallsports]

Good day so far and will end ahead regardless

 

[stormtrooper8]

In summary for Week 1:


Texans +10 -107
49ers -1.5 -115
Bucs +5.5 -108
Dolphins +3 -104
Cowboys -3 -114


Good luck

4-1 +2.93 Week 1

4-1 +2.93 overall

 

[Wagerallsports]

Very nice job

 

[airforceblue]

Good start--congrats!

 

[BMR Genie]

4-1 +2.93 Week 1

4-1 +2.93 overall

Great job, Storm!

 

[Tanko]

49ers -1.5 -115

This has quietly emerged as one of my favorite plays of Week 1. I originally leaned Pittsburgh on first glance. But after further review, pendulum has swung all the way to feeling strong about San Francisco.

I think the 49ers offense matches up well with the Steelers defense. Watt is going to be a bit to handle obviously, but 49ers have the personnel and scheme to neutralize him a bit. There is some skepticism about Purdy still, but with the tools at his disposal healthy and ready to go, I think he is going to have a solid first game.

The main reason I like the play though is on the other side of the ball. Pittsburgh is so limited on offense -- their offense has been way overhyped for some reason. I don't think Pickett sucks, but he obviously hasn't show much upside to this point and he hasn't ever faced a pass rush this good. The weapons also just not very good on the Steelers. I just think they aren't going to be able to score much here.

I think SF can win this game without a gem offensively mainly because their defense should be able to dominate here. Week 1 means anything can happen, but unless there is some weird turnover outlier like that year's Week 1 for the Steelers then I have trouble seeing them win this game to be honest

Nailed it.

 

[Tanko]

Doing the every game ATS picks again. Should be posted every Wednesday -- based on Westgate-style contest I am in

Will be interesting to see how it goes this year.


ATS overall record: 0-0

View attachment 18639

Wow. 11-4 on these. Incredible.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Wow. 11-4 on these. Incredible.

10-5 I believe, but thank you. Very surprised for Week 1

 

[stormtrooper8]

Week 1 Survivor Pick

Commanders

Survived, on to Week 2

 

[stormtrooper8]

Doing the every game ATS picks again. Should be posted every Wednesday -- based on Westgate-style contest I am in

Will be interesting to see how it goes this year.


ATS overall record: 0-0

View attachment 18639

Results from Week 1....

10-6

 

[Tanko]

After last nights performance, I'm starting to agree with you that Josh Allen may not be as good as everyone thinks.

 

[Wagerallsports]

After last nights performance, I'm starting to agree with you that Josh Allen may not be as good as everyone thinks.

Yeah he has his moments but seems to always struggle against good defenses

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 4-1 +2.93
Week 1: 4-1 +2.93



Week 2

Steelers +120

I feel like the action may start to go the other way on this one. Line is currently 2.5 as well. So this is my early bet of the week as moneyline upset.

I enjoy bounce-back opportunities in Week 2 after the clusterfuck that is Week 1, and I believe this fits the criteria. I faded Pittsburgh in Week 1, and am happy I did obviously. I think they went against a juggernaut, perhaps one of the best teams of the last several years when they're healthy. They were flustered after getting punched in the mouth, and I think they were just off after such a poor start. Big picture, they are still a middle of the pack team that has a lot to play for. They have great pieces on defense, and are extremely well-coached. This is a good opportunity for them.

When Pittsburgh has the ball, I expect them to have a nice running attack in this one. Cincinnati was all kinds of dysfunctional, but Mixon actually looked pretty good when they gave him action. Cleveland looks to be improved from a pass-rushing perspective, but I still think they can be exploited on the ground. Najee is good at running through contact, and once he gets past that initial defender he could make some nice plays. Pickett may struggle a little bit just because of the match-up, but I do think he will end up having a solid game overall as long as he gets adequate protection (or adequate enough).

I think the defense is what will win really win them the game. It's simply a better unit than it showed on Sunday. While there are some soft spots in the middle of the defense, I think they'll make adjustments to try and at least slow down Chubb a little bit (as much as you can -- he's really good). They will dare Watson to try and beat them, and despite Cleveland's success overall in Week 1, I don't think Watson is going to ever be that upper tier guy again. I think Watt will be able to get to him. Browns were solid in run-blocking, but they have some issues in pass-protection. I think they could force a few turnovers here.

I think this is a nice bounce-back spot, like mentioned. Browns feeling good about themselves after winning their Super Bowl, combined with Steelers feeling angry after a shitty performance makes this a good value play.

 

[stormtrooper8]

ATS overall record: 10-6
Week 1: 10-6

 

[samsncharge99]

Overall record: 4-1 +2.93
Week 1: 4-1 +2.93



Week 2

Steelers +120

I feel like the action may start to go the other way on this one. Line is currently 2.5 as well. So this is my early bet of the week as moneyline upset.

I enjoy bounce-back opportunities in Week 2 after the clusterfuck that is Week 1, and I believe this fits the criteria. I faded Pittsburgh in Week 1, and am happy I did obviously. I think they went against a juggernaut, perhaps one of the best teams of the last several years when they're healthy. They were flustered after getting punched in the mouth, and I think they were just off after such a poor start. Big picture, they are still a middle of the pack team that has a lot to play for. They have great pieces on defense, and are extremely well-coached. This is a good opportunity for them.

When Pittsburgh has the ball, I expect them to have a nice running attack in this one. Cincinnati was all kinds of dysfunctional, but Mixon actually looked pretty good when they gave him action. Cleveland looks to be improved from a pass-rushing perspective, but I still think they can be exploited on the ground. Najee is good at running through contact, and once he gets past that initial defender he could make some nice plays. Pickett may struggle a little bit just because of the match-up, but I do think he will end up having a solid game overall as long as he gets adequate protection (or adequate enough).

I think the defense is what will win really win them the game. It's simply a better unit than it showed on Sunday. While there are some soft spots in the middle of the defense, I think they'll make adjustments to try and at least slow down Chubb a little bit (as much as you can -- he's really good). They will dare Watson to try and beat them, and despite Cleveland's success overall in Week 1, I don't think Watson is going to ever be that upper tier guy again. I think Watt will be able to get to him. Browns were solid in run-blocking, but they have some issues in pass-protection. I think they could force a few turnovers here.

I think this is a nice bounce-back spot, like mentioned. Browns feeling good about themselves after winning their Super Bowl, combined with Steelers feeling angry after a shitty performance makes this a good value play.

i agree. Take the home dog in divisonal match up

 

[stormtrooper8]

Broncos -3.5 -106

This may be the only time I actually put money on them this year. It's no secret that I am lower on the Broncos than most people, and have been since Russ joined the team, but I do think this is a good spot for them.

Despite losing at home to start the season, I do think there were some signs of encouragement offensively. I think they at least showed some flashes of a balanced attack - they were able to run the ball a bit and Wilson, even though not a ton of action down field, looked a little bit better managing the game and was a little crisper on shorter to intermediate throws. Las Vegas doesn't exactly have the stiffest defense, but divisional games are always gonna be tough. 260 yards doesn't seem like a lot, but the game was just kind of strange. 6 drives/58 plays total isn't a ton.

I think defensively they look pretty solid. They held the Raiders in check for the most part, especially Jacobs. The Raiders aren't perceived to be a great team obviously, but I think they are little bit better than people think and they at least have some competent weapons. This bodes well against a Washington team that I think is going to be pretty bad. They're 1-0, but they really had to grind just to beat a horrible Arizona team at home. Howell looks pretty shaky, and not only lacks the ability to pick apart a defense, but also appears to be pretty mistake-prone. I think the Commanders are going to have a lot of trouble sustaining drives against the Broncos defense.

And while their defense is pretty formidable, it's not quite the level that many people think. Chase Young is probably going to miss the game, and at best going to be not 100%. He really is what makes them good.

Feels weird to lay more than a field goal with Denver, but I think this is their spot to get it done

 

[samsncharge99]

good write up, against you here