Overall record: 55-42 +12.38
Week 1: 4-1 +2.93
Week 2: 3-2 +1.07
Week 3: 3-2 +1.03
Week 4: 4-1 +2.84
Week 5: 5-0 +5.00
Week 6: 3-2 +0.64
Week 7: 4-1 +3.05
Week 8: 4-1 +3.00
Week 9: 2-3 -1.23
Week 10: 1-4 -3.18
Week 11: 4-1 +3.00
Week 12: 2-3 -1.18
Week 13: 2-3 -1.08
Week 14: 3-2 +1.07
Week 15: 2-3 -0.50
Week 16: 3-2 +1.02
Week 17: 2-3 -2.02
Week 18: 1-4 -3.40
Wild Card: 1-3 -2.20
Divisional: 2-1 +2.52
Conference Championship
49ers -7 +102 (from above)
This is a bounce back game for the 49ers. They've been waiting for this game since the flukey NFC CG last year. Deebo is an incredibly valuable player, but even if he's gone I still think this is a somewhat comfortable win for them.
Goff is a solid QB, but he's kind of a statue -- doesn't bode well against that pass rush. If SF remedies the run game at all and forces Goff to make plays, it could be tough sledding for Detroit's offense.
I also don't buy Detroit being that great against the run. I think they can neutralize it against mediocre teams, but 49ers have unique talent in the run game and an incredible scheme that I don't think they can contain fully. And even if they try to, they are extremely vulnerable on the back end. I think in nicer weather Purdy is going to to be able to find some big plays down the field.
The best team in the NFL gets to the Super Bowl from the NFC.
Chiefs +151 (from above)
There continues to be great value in the Kansas City Chiefs. Yes Baltimore has been great, and the deserve to be favored at home, but people continue to sleep on the Chiefs.
Their offense has been playing a lot better than people realize -- they've been moving the ball consistently well for several weeks, though settling for too many field goals. I think in a spot like this, they will be able to finish off drives and put pressure back on the Ravens.
And that's the thing -- like last week in Buffalo, ALL of the pressure is on the home team. There is no pressure on the Chiefs whatsoever. Mahomes and Reid with no pressure on them, as an underdog, is pretty scary.
I'll take the team with better QB and coach, who has been there and done that, as everyone continues to underrate them
Good luck