Stats Theory on Covering CFB Spreads

[quantumleap]

Keep the info coming QL I love to hear it especially when it is matched up to multiple winners

38 points scored in the 1st half. Only 18 points left to go for the over.

 

[JDS]

38 points scored in the 1st half. Only 18 points left to go for the over.

Looking very solid

 

[quantumleap]

Looking very solid

Over with 0:28 left in the 3rd.

Smoke 'em if ya got 'em!

 

[quantumleap]

Here's what I'm taking based upon the team outrushing their opponent by 125 yards. I decided to go with Louisisana even though they only rushed for 190 ypg on average. Southern Miss' rush defense is 8th from the bottom.

yes) UCF +1 over FLA (be earlier in the week, posted in Post #8)
yes) Army -14 over Tulsa
yes) Uconn -19 over Temple
yes) Louisiana -17 over S. Miss
no) Penn St. -28 over UCLA

 

[quantumleap]

Here's what I'm taking based upon the team outrushing their opponent by 125 yards. I decided to go with Louisisana even though they only rushed for 190 ypg on average. Southern Miss' rush defense is 8th from the bottom.

yes) UCF +1 over FLA (be earlier in the week, posted in Post #8)
yes) Army -14 over Tulsa
yes) Uconn -19 over Temple
yes) Louisiana -17 over S. Miss
no) Penn St. -28 over UCLA

Army in the bag.

UConn and Temple coming up next.

 

[BigJay]

I used Team Rankings data to filter thrugh the games to find the ones that met the criteria.
THEIR DATA IS NOT ACCURATE.

I went back and used ESPN data (after x-checking it with NCAA.COM data) and found it to be accurate.

I've updated the list of games that met the criteria.
Only two games met the given critieria.


Temple @ Uconn -14
UCLA @ Penn St. -27.5




I am shocked Team Rankings data is wrong by a lot. Thought they had better systems in place to assure there weren't errors.

Too many Penn State FG and slow start looking like will cost them what should have been a cover

 

[Tanko]

Here's what I'm taking based upon the team outrushing their opponent by 125 yards. I decided to go with Louisisana even though they only rushed for 190 ypg on average. Southern Miss' rush defense is 8th from the bottom.

yes) UCF +1 over FLA (be earlier in the week, posted in Post #8)
yes) Army -14 over Tulsa
yes) Uconn -19 over Temple
yes) Louisiana -17 over S. Miss
no) Penn St. -28 over UCLA

I'm curious why you ruled out Penn St. Good call but was there something that you didn't like about them covering?

 

[Tanko]

@quantumleap so your process is....

1. Apply the yards rushing filters to games (these are the ones you mentioned hit 80% win rate).
2. Then walk through the games to peel out those that don't look right/good or tweek it a little to include a couple that are close to meeting the criteria.
3. Then make bets on what's left.

Is that right?

 

[quantumleap]

I'm curious why you ruled out Penn St. Good call but was there something that you didn't like about them covering?

They have been under-performing with large spreads.

 

[quantumleap]

@quantumleap so your process is....

1. Apply the yards rushing filters to games (these are the ones you mentioned hit 80% win rate).
2. Then walk through the games to peel out those that don't look right/good or tweek it a little to include a couple that are close to meeting the criteria.
3. Then make bets on what's left.

Is that right?

I just compare the rushing offense stats with their opponent's rush defense stats. If I think they have a good chance to outrush their opponent by 125 yards then I take a look.

 

[quantumleap]

I've found another one, although it's a bit borderline so I'm betting it small. In the past I've said I was only going to bet the big rushing difference games. It seems I'm having better success this year so here goes.

South Alabama -3 over Arky St.

I've been high on South Alabama before but they go beat big at LSU last week. I think they bounce back against a much weaker opponent this week. South Alabama rushes for an average of 211 rushing ypg while Arky St gives up 6th worst 234 rushing ypg. All other rushing stats are about even.

 

[JDS]

I've found another one, although it's a bit borderline so I'm betting it small. In the past I've said I was only going to bet the big rushing difference games. It seems I'm having better success this year so here goes.

South Alabama -3 over Arky St.

I've been high on South Alabama before but they go beat big at LSU last week. I think they bounce back against a much weaker opponent this week. South Alabama rushes for an average of 211 rushing ypg while Arky St gives up 6th worst 234 rushing ypg. All other rushing stats are about even.

I’m telling you this is a fuckin’ lock, they buried me on a big bet last week.

 

[quantumleap]

I’m telling you this is a fuckin’ lock, they buried me on a big bet last week.

I was on the bet as well for the same reason, rushing yards. Time to get our money back.

 

[quantumleap]

Alright, last night I made an over bet on a game where I thought the underdog would pass for more than 175 yards than their opponent. I found another game like that with a ridiculously low total except that the passing team is favored by 1. So I ran the numbers and numbers including spreads of -2 are good for the over.

Washington/Michigan over 39

Michigan is the 5th worst passing team in the nation while Washington averages 296 passing ypg. Michigan's pass defense gives up an average of 250 passing ypg.

Let's tear up this over!

 

[Tanko]

I've found another one, although it's a bit borderline so I'm betting it small. In the past I've said I was only going to bet the big rushing difference games. It seems I'm having better success this year so here goes.

South Alabama -3 over Arky St.

I've been high on South Alabama before but they go beat big at LSU last week. I think they bounce back against a much weaker opponent this week. South Alabama rushes for an average of 211 rushing ypg while Arky St gives up 6th worst 234 rushing ypg. All other rushing stats are about even.

I had them on my list to begin the week but S. Ala had a horrible start to the year losing to N. Texas and Ohio, who are really bad teams. So, I was worried about how well they would play.

 

[quantumleap]

OK, one more passing trend. Last night and today I showed when a team that outpasses their opponent by 175 yards as a dog (or even -2 favorite), the game usually goes over.

Well there's another scenario for outpassing your opponent by 175 yards. If you're favored by 11.5 points or more the passing team covers spread almost 78% of the time. Miami, FL is favored by 10.5. I'm saying that's close enough.

Miami FL -10.5 over Cal

 

[quantumleap]

Alright, last night I made an over bet on a game where I thought the underdog would pass for more than 175 yards than their opponent. I found another game like that with a ridiculously low total except that the passing team is favored by 1. So I ran the numbers and numbers including spreads of -2 are good for the over.

Washington/Michigan over 39

Michigan is the 5th worst passing team in the nation while Washington averages 296 passing ypg. Michigan's pass defense gives up an average of 250 passing ypg.

Let's tear up this over!

Over with plenty of time to spare. Took a turnover to do it but that's ok.

I'm really starting to like these passing differential overs. I hope my passing differential ATS with Miami FL comes through as well. I may have to concentrate on passing teams next week.

 

[quantumleap]

I had them on my list to begin the week but S. Ala had a horrible start to the year losing to N. Texas and Ohio, who are really bad teams. So, I was worried about how well they would play.

Nice call Tanko. At least South Alabama showed up to the game They just couldn't get it done.

 

[quantumleap]

Here's my record for this thread and the 1 Navy pick Tanko mentioned in the other thread. I'm really intrigued by the overs where one team is a much better passing team and they are either favored by less than a FG or are an outright dog. This is a small sample size though of course.

I think I'll continue this in my CFB thread in that forum.

W) Navy (from other thread)
W) Sam Houston (full game)
W) Sam Houston (2nd half)
W) Syracuse/UNLV over
L) UCF
W) Army
L) Uconn
L) Louisiana
L) South Alabama
W) Washington/Michigan over
L) MIami FL

 

[Tanko]

I only see one game meeting the original criteria this week: UCLA at Rutgers. UCLA barely meets the < 220 ypg passing.

• Teams that outrush their opponents by 125 yards or more cover the line more than 80% as long as their opponent's average passing ypg is less than 220.

Rutgers: rushing 200 ypg
UCLA: rushing 60 ypg
UCLA passing 213 ypg