Stats Theory on Covering CFB Spreads

[Tanko]

@quantumleap mentioned an interesting stat in the Satruday all-day football spread.

Teams that outrush their opponents by 125 yards or more cover the line more than 80% as long as their opponent's average passing ypg is less than 220.

Navy averages over 300 rushing ypg. UAB is giving up almost 200 ypg rushing so Navy should have no trouble controlling the rushing attack.

I love testing these things.
This week we have 5 games that meet this criteria (highlighted below).


Temple @ Uconn -14
UCLA @ Penn St. -27.5


EDIT: I've updated the list of games that met the criteria after find out the data from Team Rankings is inaccurate. Only two games met the given critieria.

 

[Tanko]

These are not my official plays. I'm just checking the system out.

 

[charliebrown]

Looks like a decent system

 

[Tanko]

Looks like a decent system

I'm hoping QuantumLeap comes in and comments on it.

 

[quantumleap]

@quantumleap mentioned an interesting stat in the Satruday all-day football spread.



I love testing these things.
This week we have 5 games that meet this criteria (highlighted below).

UCF +1.5 @ FLA
Army -10 @ Tulsa
Temple @ Uconn -14
Louisiana -14 @ S. Miss
UCLA @ Penn St. -27.5

Hopefully we win 4 of them.

It's harder than it first looks. During that Navy game they didn't rush for 125 yards more than their opponent but they covered anyway. I used to do this with more games than I should have and didn't get good results so I now limit my games to the ones that are most lopsided like I thought Navy would be. It turned out OK and Army which also covered.

I've found that this works for NFL as well although the spread only has to be 75 yards. Teams that outrush their opponents by 75 yards cover the spread 80% of the time.

So I figured Baltimore would rush for more than 75 yards more than Buffalo tonight. I know this is past-posting but Buffalo still can come back and cover. Baltimore has the top rushing team in the league and Buffalo has a decent rush defense but Baltimore's rush defense is the best in the league and Buffalo's passing yardage isn't all that great so there's little danger they will switch to passing the whole game.

 

[quantumleap]

@quantumleap mentioned an interesting stat in the Satruday all-day football spread.



I love testing these things.
This week we have 5 games that meet this criteria (highlighted below).

UCF +1.5 @ FLA
Army -10 @ Tulsa
Temple @ Uconn -14
Louisiana -14 @ S. Miss
UCLA @ Penn St. -27.5

Hopefully we win 4 of them.

At first glance, all those all look good except for UCF. They were soundly beaten at home last week to Colorado and the reason was because Colorado had such a good passing team. The average passing yards for Florida exceeds the number of yards (220) that I like the opponent to have. This is how good rushing teams are beaten.

On a related note, this Florida -1.5 seems just like the most ridiculous trap I've seen in a long time! As mentioned above, UCF just got blown out by Colorado at home and now they go on the road to Florida who just beat Miss State 45-28 on the road. The squares will be all over this line.

 

[Tanko]

At first glance, all those all look good except for UCF. They were soundly beaten at home last week to Colorado and the reason was because Colorado had such a good passing team. The average passing yards for Florida exceeds the number of yards (220) that I like the opponent to have. This is how good rushing teams are beaten.

On a related note, this Florida -1.5 seems just like the most ridiculous trap I've seen in a long time! As mentioned above, UCF just got blown out by Colorado at home and now they go on the road to Florida who just beat Miss State 45-28 on the road. The squares will be all over this line.

ESPN has Florida at 278 ypg passing but Team Rankings (who I use) has Florida at 216.... Strange they are so far off.

I'll take UCF off the list.
TBH I didn't like that play out of this list at all. If I was playing this system I would have probably passed on it anyway.

Thanks for for commenting on this QL.

 

[quantumleap]

ESPN has Florida at 278 ypg passing but Team Rankings (who I use) has Florida at 216.... Strange they are so far off.

I'll take UCF off the list.
TBH I didn't like that play out of this list at all. If I was playing this system I would have probably passed on it anyway.

Thanks for for commenting on this QL.

View attachment 43509

Yeah, I was using ESPN numbers. I went to the Florida Gators website and they list 278.5 ypg passing.

2024 Football Cumulative Statistics - Florida Gators

The official 2024 Football cumulative statistics for the Florida Gators Gators

floridagators.com

I see Circa now has it UCF -1. It's a normal bet at +1 for me now.

I think I'm going to start a thread here about it.

 

[Tanko]

I used Team Rankings data to filter thrugh the games to find the ones that met the criteria.
THEIR DATA IS NOT ACCURATE.

I went back and used ESPN data (after x-checking it with NCAA.COM data) and found it to be accurate.

I've updated the list of games that met the criteria.
Only two games met the given critieria.


Temple @ Uconn -14
UCLA @ Penn St. -27.5




I am shocked Team Rankings data is wrong by a lot. Thought they had better systems in place to assure there weren't errors.

 

[quantumleap]

I used Team Rankings data to filter thrugh the games to find the ones that met the criteria.
THEIR DATA IS NOT ACCURATE.

I went back and used ESPN data (after x-checking it with NCAA.COM data) and found it to be accurate.

I've updated the list of games that met the criteria.
Only two games met the given critieria.


Temple @ Uconn -14
UCLA @ Penn St. -27.5




I am shocked Team Rankings data is wrong by a lot. Thought they had better systems in place to assure there weren't errors.

I still kind of like Louisiana over Southern Miss. They only average about 190 rushing ypg but So Miss has been giving up over 220 rushing ypg. Add in the fact that So Miss are only averaging just over 80 rush ypg and I think the Rajin' Cajuns can outrush them by 125 yards.

I'm starting to have second thoughts about Penn State though. UCLA has a rather good rushing defense coming in at 110 ypg. Their problem is that they have very little for their run game. I may still go a little bit on Penn St.

Army has such a great rush offense and rush defense that I think they can outrush any one of their scheduled opponents by 125 yards. The issue I see is that Tulsa has a middling rush game. But I think Army's rush defense can limit them and of course their rushing offense will get the more than 125 yards.

 

[quantumleap]

Just a note again that I've been playing these bets far less than I did in the past. In years past I would have played Sam Houston St to win over UTEP tonight. In fact, I think I'll put just a little bit down for action.

SH St is rushing over 200 ypg and UTEP is giving up 225 ypg so far this season so SH St should get over 200 rush yards tonight. They aren't all the dominant of a passing team so there's little chance they will switch to their passing game.

UTEP is about 10th to last in rushing ypg offense at 80 and SH St's rush defense is relatively decent only giving up 130 ypg so they should get less than 100 rushing tonight. The only concern is that UTEP averages 240 passing ypg this season but that is just above the threshold of 220 passing ypg so I'll take a chance with the -14.

 

[Tanko]

Just a note again that I've been playing these bets far less than I did in the past. In years past I would have played Sam Houston St to win over UTEP tonight. In fact, I think I'll put just a little bit down for action.

SH St is rushing over 200 ypg and UTEP is giving up 225 ypg so far this season so SH St should get over 200 rush yards tonight. They aren't all the dominant of a passing team so there's little chance they will switch to their passing game.

UTEP is about 10th to last in rushing ypg offense at 80 and SH St's rush defense is relatively decent only giving up 130 ypg so they should get less than 100 rushing tonight. The only concern is that UTEP averages 240 passing ypg this season but that is just above the threshold of 220 passing ypg so I'll take a chance with the -14.

Don't worry QL.... This isn't about hanging you out to dry if it doesn't play out....
I just like testing new "systems". Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't.

Regardless of how it turns out, it gives people more ideas on what to look for capping games. I always view these as a a good educational tool.

 

[quantumleap]

SH St is rushing over 200 ypg and UTEP is giving up 225 ypg so far this season so SH St should get over 200 rush yards tonight. They aren't all the dominant of a passing team so there's little chance they will switch to their passing game.
.

Looks like we might have a similar case as with the Navy game. Both Navy and Texas St are good rushing teams but Navy turned into a passing team when I picked them and now Texas St is putting up some yards through the air.

I guess that's alright as long as they cover.

 

[jjgold]

you can get lucky with trends for a while but have to know when to get off them
Keep an eye on %'s

 

[quantumleap]

you can get lucky with trends for a while but have to know when to get off them
Keep an eye on %'s

Isn't that the truth, jj??

Trends can go south in a heartbeat. That's why I like to play trends that have stood the test of time and are valid for at least the last 4 years, like this one.

Like I mentioned before, the hard part is predicting which teams will outrush their opponent by 125 yards. In this game Texas St eventually did outrush Troy by 125 yards and covered.

I also called Navy's cover last week. Let's see how long this goes.

 

[quantumleap]

OK, I hope I'm not getting too overconfident but I'll just have a little fun with this one.

Teams that rush over 250 yards per game cover the spread 78% of the time. Sam Houston has 140 yards rushing in the 1st half so I think they can end up with 250 yards. The game line is -10 and they are up by 10. The 2nd half line is -3.5 so it's not exactly lined the same as the game line. It's 3.5 points off.

But the nice thing about this game is that UTEP only scored on a scoop-and-score fumble near their own end zone. Other than that they have been completely shut down. This skews the 2nd half line because it's based partly on score and UTEP's offense did nothing to score these points.

Sam Houston on the other hand has been moving the ball. They were stopped at the end of the half on the 2 yard line so they settled for a FG. This game could have easily been 21-0 at the half.

So I'm taking Sam Houston -3.5 2nd half based upon how well they are running the ball and how horrible UTEP is on offense.

 

[quantumleap]

OK, I hope I'm not getting too overconfident but I'll just have a little fun with this one.

Teams that rush over 250 yards per game cover the spread 78% of the time. Sam Houston has 140 yards rushing in the 1st half so I think they can end up with 250 yards. The game line is -10 and they are up by 10. The 2nd half line is -3.5 so it's not exactly lined the same as the game line. It's 3.5 points off.

But the nice thing about this game is that UTEP only scored on a scoop-and-score fumble near their own end zone. Other than that they have been completely shut down. This skews the 2nd half line because it's based partly on score and UTEP's offense did nothing to score these points.

Sam Houston on the other hand has been moving the ball. They were stopped at the end of the half on the 2 yard line so they settled for a FG. This game could have easily been 21-0 at the half.

So I'm taking Sam Houston -3.5 2nd half based upon how well they are running the ball and how horrible UTEP is on offense.

Well, that was....interesting. Sam Houston scores 3 easy TDs in the 3rd. Easy 2nd half win, right?

Not so easy. UTEP scores a TD in the 3rd. Then another in the 4th. Sam Houston's drive stalls and they kick a FG so they've outscored UTEP 24-14 in the 2nd. UTEP gets a late drive and momentum...but a personal foul call goes against them so they get 1st and 25. They fail to convert and Sam Houston covers the 2nd half.

I should know better than to bet 2nd halfs on the last game of the night.

 

[Tanko]

Well, that was....interesting. Sam Houston scores 3 easy TDs in the 3rd. Easy 2nd half win, right?

Not so easy. UTEP scores a TD in the 3rd. Then another in the 4th. Sam Houston's drive stalls and they kick a FG so they've outscored UTEP 24-14 in the 2nd. UTEP gets a late drive and momentum...but a personal foul call goes against them so they get 1st and 25. They fail to convert and Sam Houston covers the 2nd half.

I should know better than to bet 2nd halfs on the last game of the night.

A winner is a winner.
We've all lost a lot of these because of crazy bounces or bad calls so when we get a winner.... CELEBRATE.

Nice hit QL.

 

[quantumleap]

OK, one more stats thing I'll put out since we're having some success here. In games where dogs outpass their FBS opponents by more than 175 yards, the total goes over 72% of the time. Syracuse is averaging 373 passing ypg while UNLV is giving up 226 passing ypg.

UNLV is a good rushing team so I'm thinking their passing yardage will be much less than Syracuse. Syracuse/UNLV have a relatively low total at 55.5 which I think is in part due to UNLV's run game which has a tendency to slow down the clock. I think they'll get a couple scores from it though.

Syracuse/UNLV over 55.5

 

[JDS]

OK, one more stats thing I'll put out since we're having some success here. In games where dogs outpass their FBS opponents by more than 175 yards, the total goes over 72% of the time. Syracuse is averaging 373 passing ypg while UNLV is giving up 226 passing ypg.

UNLV is a good rushing team so I'm thinking their passing yardage will be much less than Syracuse. Syracuse/UNLV have a relatively low total at 55.5 which I think is in part due to UNLV's run game which has a tendency to slow down the clock. I think they'll get a couple scores from it though.

Syracuse/UNLV over 55.5

Keep the info coming QL I love to hear it especially when it is matched up to multiple winners 🫡