Michael Alexander
MLB, 04/13 7:05 PM Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles 157 for 2 Units
John Means pitched really well in his opening start of the season against the Rays and he faces a similar team today in that they platoon with all righties to face him. Well, the Brewers were ranked just 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Means also gives up more power to righties which is understandable, but he actually gives up a lower BA against righties than lefties. That is the effect of a changeup pitcher.
We also saw how the Brewers bats struggled against Justin Steele and Bruce Zimmermann this season, both lefties who shut them out. Of course their bats could all of a sudden wake up this game, but they also pitched their top relievers in Josh Hader and Devin Williams two out of the last three days. That doesn’t mean they are unavailable, but if they do come in, they will be pitching their 3rd game in 4 nights for probably the first time this year.
The Orioles had the worst bullpen in the league last season so they are always capable of blowing it. However, Corbin Burnes also struggled a bit in his first start allowing 3 ER and walking 3 batters in just 5 IP. I like the value on the Orioles at home here.