12 Super Bowl predictions: Pro sports bettors pick side, total, props
LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION
Tom Brady said he doesn’t “have a dog in the fight” in Super Bowl 60.
Unlike Brady, the Las Vegas Raiders minority owner who won six Super Bowls during his 20-year run as New England Patriots quarterback, our collection of professional sports bettors have many dogs in the fight, starting with the betting underdog in Sunday’s NFL title game.
The Patriots are 5-point underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl, and pro bettors Cris Zeniuk and “Dr. Alan” Dumond made New England their best bet.
“The narrative seems to be Seattle names its victory margin,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “My model has the Pats with good value at anything over a field goal. Seattle is young, and mistakes are to be expected. The Pats defense should focus to limit the run and cause disruption for Sam Darnold’s dropbacks.
“Seattle wins 23-20, but the Pats cover.”
Dumond, 4-1 against the spread on his playoff best bets in the Review-Journal, is backing the Patriots largely because of their defense, which ranks second in the NFL in scoring (17.3 points per game allowed) to the Seahawks (17.1 ppga).
“The Patriots defense has given up 26 points in three playoff games (8.7 points per game) and 46 points in their last five games (9.2 points per game), which makes the Patriots a defensive ’dog,” Dumond said. “Taking +5 points is a value play.”
Pro bettors Jeff Whitelaw and Chuck Edel like the game to go under 45½, though Whitelaw likes the first half under 22½ more.
“They’re playing on grass, which is a little bit slower of a surface, and they both have great defenses,” Whitelaw said. “I just think, especially in the first half under, the defenses will be more in sync than the offenses early in the game.”
Whitelaw also bet both team totals under (Seahawks 25½, Patriots 21½).
Pro bettor Scott Pritchard’s best bet is on the first quarter under 7½.
“In their three playoff games, the Pats have not been world killers, only scoring one offensive touchdown versus Denver on a 12-yard drive,” said Pritchard (Pritchardspicks.com). “In a big game like this, you cannot win it in the first quarter, but you can lose it by turning the ball over. Both teams will be conservative in the early going.”
Here are six more Super Bowl prop best bets:
Drake Maye under 221½ passing yards
“Maye has played against some bad defenses this season,” said Edel (@chuckedel). “When he has gone up against top defenses, his passing yards have been under 200 for the most part. Seattle’s pass defense has given up 199½ yards per game.”
Drake Maye under 44½ passing yards, first quarter
Pro bettor Steve Fezzik bet this prop under 46½ yards over the counter at the Westgate SuperBook on Super Bowl prop release night.
“Drake Maye has been very shaky in the playoffs, and you’ve got to expect (coach Mike) Vrabel to go conservative and hand the ball off to (Rhamondre) Stevenson,” said Fezzik (@FezzikSports). “I would be shocked if New England was winging the ball all over the place in the first quarter. If Seattle starts with the ball, it’s going to take a minor miracle to beat us. If New England starts with the ball, they’ll probably get two possessions, and it’s close to a coin flip.
“Super Bowls always start slow. We always love the first quarter under anyways. This is a derivative way of betting on a slow-starting Super Bowl.”
Kenneth Walker III under 2½ receptions, +105
“(Running back George) Holani is getting a lot of pass down work for Seattle, so I like Walker’s under,” said pro bettor Bill Krackomberger (@BillKrackman).
Mack Hollins under 2½ receptions, -160
“I really like this one,” Krackomberger said. “Could be mixing in more of the rotation of others since coming back from injury.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 93½ receiving yards
“I think New England will focus on trying to shut him down,” Whitelaw said. “(Bill) Belichick always tried to take away the top weapon, and I think that’s what Vrabel will do, being a disciple of Belichick. That’s a lot of yards.”
Shortest touchdown under 1½ yards, -130
This prop has cashed in five of the past six Super Bowls.
“I play that almost every year. It happens a lot more than you think,” Whitelaw said. “If there’s a pass interference call in the end zone, you get the ball at the 1. Both teams are good running teams, and when they get down there first and goal at the 4 or 5, they’re probably going to run.”
