Indian Cowboy NFL
G LAC -130
E CAR +3.5
C GB +7.5
C CHI +6.5
E-Unit Play. #458. Take Panthers +3.5 Over Patriots (Sunday @ 1:00 pm est)
We are backing the Panthers as home dogs. This is a tough spot for the Pats as they come in off an outright win on the road as +3.5 dogs against the Chargers. Not sure I am comfortable laying points with the Pats on the road as favorites as they likely have a let down here. All signs are pointing to no Darnold out with concussion and in comes PJ Walker which we are fine with. Who did Walker play for? Temple. Who was his coach at Temple? Matt Rhule. These two have chemistry and familiarity with each other. Walker I think actually poses different challenges for the Pats. Belichick said "Walker appears to be more elusive than Darnold, whose status isn't likely to be resolved until the weekend. The New England coach said Walker's arm strength has been evident, even referencing what he has seen by reviewing Carolina's preseason games." So I think we actually get an upgrade at QB for the Panthers with Walker. Add in the fact that news out of camp is that it is quite possible that McCaffrey might go this week which will add another weapon and dynamic for the Panthers and Walker on offense extending drives. CB Gilmour will play against his former team since being cut and traded a few weeks ago to the Panthers and I expect him to be motivated and have an impact on the defensive side. This line opened Pats -2.5 with the public all over them but at -3.5 we have value with the home team here and the points. I would not be surprised to see the Panthers win outright at home but we will take the points. The Patriots are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win. Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
C-Unit Play. #469. Take Packers +7.5 Over Chiefs (Sunday @ 4:25 pm est)
We roll with the Packers here as I think this is a big overreaction to the Rogers news being out with Covid. The Chiefs cannot cover against anyone these days and could not cover as -10.5 favorites at home against the Giants so how are they going to cover against the Packers even without Rogers. Jordan Love will make his first start and lets not forget he was drafted in the first round for a reason. He has been with this team for a few years and is learning under Rogers. This is not a new system or team for him and will have all week to prepare. If there is anyone motivated here it's Jordan Love to prove to Packers brass that when his time comes he can and will take over for Rogers and what a better signature win then to do so over the Chiefs. The Packers will likely get Adams back this week who was out last week with Covid. We saw this last week with the Packers when Adams and Lazard were out that there was a big over reaction and they managed to win outright against the Cardinals. Given the state of the Chiefs right now this is simply too many points for them to be laying here against a well oiled machine like the Packers. We will gladly take the points here with the Packers and this over reaction and expect them to hang tough and keep this within a FG type game. Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win. Chiefs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.
G-Unit Play. #467. Take Chargers ML (-130) Over Eagles (Sunday @ 4:05 pm est)
We love the Chargers here in this spot. The Chargers were in the drivers seat for the division but now come off back to back losses. They need a win here to keep up with the Raiders for top spot in the division. One question is who are you going to back in this spot Herbert or Hurts. No question we back Herbert in this spot and the weapons he has available. What I dont understand is the sudden love for the Eagles? This line opened Chargers -3 but money has come pouring in on the Eagles which makes no sense. They come off a game where they beat up the Lions who were coming in on a letdown after laying it all out there against the Rams and we were on the Eagles for that game last week. The big question here is how are the Eagles going to stop Herbert and the Chargers. The Eagles gave up 33 points to the Raiders, 28 to the Bucs, 42 to the Chiefs, and 41 against Dallas. Hurts and the Eagels cannot trade points and they will not be able to keep up with the Chargers. The Chargers cannot afford to take this game likely as they need this win and on deck they have the Vikings another non conference opponent so this is not a look ahead spot for them. I trust Herbert and the Chargers more off back to back losses over Hurts and the Eagles. We saw what happened a few weeks ago when the
sharps took the Eagles from +3 to -1 against the Raiders and got destroyed. I will gladly take the more talented team here in the Chargers on the ML to just win the game. If you look at the Eagles losses they all came against elite teams in or bound for the playoffs. If you look at their wins they all came against teams .500 or below. They will struggle here again today and we like the Chargers to bounce back.