Super Bowl best bets: Experts pick side, total, props in Chiefs-Eagles
LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION
Pro sports bettors must have missed the memo about not betting against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.
The sharps are backing the Eagles over the Chiefs as 1-point underdogs in Super Bowl 59 on Sunday in New Orleans.
“The metric model I use has a clear advantage for the Eagles,” said pro sports bettor Cris Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “I feel the Eagles overcome Kansas City’s playoffs mojo.”
Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons and VSiN host Matt Youmans bet on Philadelphia in the preseason to win it all — at 22-1 and 16-1, respectively — and are doubling down on the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
“The Eagles have the best rushing offense in the NFL and the No. 1 defense. You never find that combination as an underdog,” Salmons said. “The Eagles have been the better team all season. We think the wrong team’s favored.”
Youmans (@mattyoumans247) also is banking on Philadelphia’s vaunted rushing attack to help ruin the Chiefs’ bid to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
“In August, I bet Philadelphia at 16-1 odds to win the championship, and I’ll stick with that pick,” he said. “The Eagles’ edge in this matchup should be the running of Saquon Barkley behind a dominant offensive line.”
Pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw wagered on the game to go under 50. The consensus total has dropped to 48½ after Salmons said a sharp bettor at the Westgate on Thursday placed a wager on under 49.
“Both teams have good defenses,” Whitelaw said. “I think Philly will do a lot of running and, with Philly’s defense, Mahomes will have a lot of short passes and the clock will run a lot.”
Here are seven Super Bowl prop best bets. Football best bets in the Review-Journal are on a 64-51-5 ATS uptick.
Jalen Hurts to score a TD, -120
Whitelaw and Youmans made Hurts to score a touchdown one of their best bets.
“Philadelphia’s quarterback has scored in two of three playoff games this year, and he had three rushing touchdowns against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl two years ago,” Youmans said. “Hurts to score two touchdowns is also worth a shot at +500.”
Saquon Barkley to score a TD, -190
Whitelaw recommends betting on Hurts and Barkley to score a touchdown.
“They’ve both been scoring in the playoffs, and they’ve both been getting the ball down at the goal line,” he said. “It’s one of those things that you can win both, but it’s very unlikely that you would lose both.”
Eagles team total over 23½ points (-140)
“Philadelphia has a 15-1 record since Week 6, scoring 24 points or more in 12 of those 16 games,” Youmans said. “In the four games the Eagles fell short of this team total, they scored 20, 20, 22 and 22 points. When these teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, the Eagles led 24-14 at halftime.
“Philadelphia has a better offense now, and that’s due mostly to Barkley, who is likely to put up big numbers against Kansas City’s mediocre run defense.”
Total number of Eagles to have a reception under 5½, -130
“The Eagles only went over the 5½ one time this season,” Whitelaw said. “They don’t really use a lot of guys. They basically have the five guys that they throw to.”
Total number of Chiefs to have a rush attempt under 4½, -130
“It’s the same thing with the Chiefs. You’re going to have Mahomes, (Kareem) Hunt, (Isiah) Pacheco and they may or may not run a reverse with (Xavier) Worthy, and there’s your four,” Whitelaw said. “If they’re going to run another reverse, why would you run a reverse with anybody other than Worthy, who is the fastest player in the NFL.”
Harrison Butker over 1½ field goals, -160
“Obviously, they’re playing in a dome,” Whitelaw said. “Kansas City moves the ball, and they’re not as wild on fourth down as Philadelphia is, and Butker’s very, very solid.”
Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes, -120
“This simple prop is one of my go-to plays,” Youmans said. “It hit in the Chiefs’ past two Super Bowls and is 8-3 in the past 11.”
