Probably my favorite spot of the week once again backing the Ravens and fading the Patriots. Ravens are in must win mode and Lamar is 1-3 in Primetime this season compared to 18-5 SU in his career before this season.
Something that I think plays a factor here is the fact that the Patriots do not even need this game to clinch the division, they can beat the Jets and Dolphins and lose this one and still win the East.
Ravens are in a MUST win situation at home.
After starting the season ranking bottom 10 in Rush
EPA per play they now rank top 5 in the last 4 weeks and will now face a Patriots defense that ranks almost dead last in the league facing the run since Milton Williams went down. Patriots thrive through big plays through the air and now face a Ravens defense that defends them at a top 5 rate. Lamar continues to look healthier and healthier each week.
99
Just a horrible matchup for a Patriots team that still ranks dead last in SOS and has plenty of luck on their side through the 11-3 start. Patriots also once again will be without Spillane and Campbell who are 2 major pieces to this team. Barmore, Jones, Davis and Landry also show up as questionable which could be catastrophic to this already struggling defense that just allowed 5 straight touchdowns to the Bills. I do expect them to play but they will not be full strength.
Last but not least the sharper money is clearly on the Ravens with the Public hammering the 11-3 dogs and the line moving in favor of the Ravens.
The Pick: My 150 Dime winner is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Line: The current line is +3 1/2 at the majority of books in Vegas and offshore as of 7:55 am EST. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.
Note: If your line is anywhere from +3 to +4 1/2, I advise you buying the 1/2 point up on the Jags.
Biffs Almanac: 53-21-1 record
BUF-10 BAL-2.5 LAC+2.5 JAX+3 DET-6.5
Seans Dolphins1: 48-26-1 record
TB-2.5 LAC+2.5 DEN-3 DET-6.5 IND+6.5
Leroy Jones: 47-26-1 record
CLE+10 KC-3 DAL-2.5 ATL-2.5 DET-6.5
2Dye4: 47-26-2 record
SEA-1 BAL-2.5 TB-2.5 DET-6.5 CIN-4
Fearless2: 46-28-1 record
NE+2.5 KC-3 DEN-3 PIT+6.5 CIN-4
Taft69: 46-28-1 record
CLE+10 NYJ+4.5 CAR+2.5 DAL-2.5 DET-6.5
ALL spreads are decided earlier in the week and they make their picks based off what is posted for that week. Their official picks are due on Saturdays by 5p.
Erin Dolan (On the Consensus Report she has been Red-Hot)
Cowboys QB Prescott to throw a INT (this INT Prop she has only lost twice all year)
Ravens RB Henry anytime Touchdown
Jaguars Team Total Under 21.5