No lack of motivation in this one with the Saints winning 4 games in a row including beating the the Bucs and Panthers and now look to split the season series with the Falcons. Saint will be down Olave, but Shough has proven to be efficient and they will find ways to scheme up open looks for Pettis and Austin Jr under Kellen Moore.
Falcons are off a high energy game where they beat the at the time Superbowl favorites and everything was coming up Falcons with Bijan running for over 200+ yards. I see a huge letdown spot and potentially a game where we see some turnovers trom Kirko.
This Saints defense over the last 4 weeks has been impressive ranking 2nd in success rate, 4th in Pass EPA/Play and 8th in Rush EPA/Play. In the last 4 weeks the Falcons have been better against man, which is something that the Saints have run at the 2nd lowest rate.
Line is holding firm on this 3.5 despite thee injuries to the Saints on offense. Falcons defense is nothing special being middle of the pack in all defensive analytics and thrived on TOs last week.
This one is pretty simple, we have the Steelers who will once again be without D.K Metcalf which is a such a huge loss to this offense. In the previous game between these 2 we saw the total close at 43.5 and they scored 47 total points, now we get a freezing cold late divisional where winner takes all AKA points coming at a premium.
Lamar just has not been the same since his early season injury and has not been using his legs, which will be crucial in a game where the Steelers are getting T.J Watt back. The defense truly is a different animal with him in the lineup and they have overall been much better at home.
In the last 4 weeks we have seen the Steelers actually rank 2nd in EPA per rush but will be facing the Ravens front that ranks 5th in EPA per rush. On the other side even without T.J this Steelers defense has ranked top 5 in Rush EPA allowed Taking away the run from the Steelers will be huge.
Steelers and Ravens both rank top 6 in the league in redzone defense, and Ravens have struggled mightily in the redzone this season ranking 29th at finishing drives
I expect each team to try to to establish the tempo in this one and for the Ravens to heavily rely on the run and Derrick Henry to wear down the Steelers defense. Just 2 good defenses playing each other
**NFL**
1pm: Chase Brown 50 rush, Justin Jefferson 50+ rec -133 (5u) max
- both need 53 to get to 1000
1pm: Myles Garrett Sack, Bears Win -107 (5u)
1pm: Pollard o66.5 (3u)
1pm: McCarthy INT -140 (3u)