Sharp money moves line on lightly bet Raiders-Chiefs season finale
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Just lose, baby.
That’s what the Raiders need to do against the Chiefs in Sunday’s regular-season finale at Allegiant Stadium to secure the No. 1 pick in April’s NFL draft.
Kansas City, which has dominated the series, winning nine of the last 10 meetings and 19 of 23, is a consensus 5½-point favorite over the Raiders and the consensus total is 36½. The Chiefs are -5 at the South Point sportsbook and the total is 36 at the South Point, Circa Sports and the Westgate SuperBook.
The Westgate took a sharp bet on the Raiders +6½ on Monday when it opened the line and the number has been at 5½ since then.
“The Raiders are trying not to win and Kansas City’s starting arguably one of the 10 worst quarterbacks ever to start in the league (in Chris Oladokun). It’s just a tough game,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “The Chiefs have been playing good defense, at least. (Coach) Andy Reid keeps talking about that they want to close the season right and win, and the Raiders, I’m sure, are happy to lose because that’s what they’re trying to do.”
Salmons said the betting public has “zero interest” in the game and neither do bettors at Boomer’s Sportsbook.
“No action whatsoever yet,” Boomer’s director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said Saturday afternoon. “Hopefully there is some (Sunday) so we’ll have a decision on the game but right now, betting on that game is nonexistent.”
There is some action at STN Sports, where the Chiefs account for 74 percent of spread bets and 62 percent of bets on the total are on the under.
Kansas City (6-10, 6-9-1 against the spread) crushed the Raiders 31-0 in the first meeting in October but has lost five straight and seven of its last eight overall while going 1-7 ATS. The Chiefs are on a 9-1 under run.
“I believe we will be Raiders fans when the game kicks,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said.
The Raiders (2-14, 6-10 ATS) have lost 10 straight and are on a 2-5 spread skid. They’re on a 4-1 over run.
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Westgate SuperBook vice president of marketing Jay Kornegay, who leads the Las Vegas Review-Journal NFL Challenge (47-36-2 ATS), made the Raiders +5½ one of his five plays this week.
“I can see a low-scoring game here,” he said. “After years of playing meaningful games, the Chiefs understandably are uninspired. Additionally, the Raiders know what’s on the line. I can see the points coming into play.”
On the flip side, legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger (on a 19-10-1 ATS run in the RJ Challenge) and pro handicapper Doug Fitz (on a 7-3 ATS run in the RJ Challenge) took the Chiefs.
“The Chiefs should close an otherwise disappointing season with a win and cover on a relatively short number,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “There’s incentive to play hard for Travis Kelce, perhaps playing his last game. The Raiders clinch the No. 1 draft pick with a loss and there’s no good reason for them to put forth much effort. The Chiefs should win rather convincingly.”
A former radio play-by-play voice for the Raiders, Musburger now has season tickets for the Silver and Black.
“As a Raider season ticket holder, I’m all in on guaranteeing the No. 1 pick in the draft by losing to the Chiefs, who happen to be 6-0 in Allegiant Stadium,” he said. “I’m also hoping Taylor Swift drops by to watch Travis Kelce bow out with a touchdown and a victory.”
