Joe Gavazzi
NFL PLAYOFFS – DIVISION ROUND
Sunday, Jan 18th
3% Houston Texans (+3.5) 3:00 PM ET
A weather forecast of mid 30’s with possible wintery mix on a Sunday afternoon in January in Boston should be a walk in the park for Houston QB Stroud who had numerous problems handling the ball in his last outing on MNF in Pittsburgh where the temperature was in the teens. Yet I heard no one in the broadcast booth make a reference to the frigid conditions as being a possible reason why QB Stroud, who has rarely played in sub-freezing temperatures, was having problems handling the ball. The Texans entered the 4th quarter leading only 7-6 because they were -3 Net TOs. That all evened out in the 4thquarter when Pittsburgh committed 2 turnovers and Houston scored 23 points for a 30-6 final that was far more competitive on the scoreboard for much of the game. That was not true, however, on the stat sheet where Houston totally dominated with a yardage edge of 408-175. Following that embarrassing Pittsburgh loss, Mike Tomlin resigned after 19 seasons as HC of the Steelers and will now be hunting for his next HC position which will pay him $20 million dollars/year, the amount that recently hired former Baltimore HC Harbaugh signed for with the NYG. But I digress. Little to complain about a New England team who went from 4-13 SU last season to 15-3 SU, 14-4 ATS and enters on a 4 game win streak after their 16-3 victory vs. the Chargers last Sunday on this field, a game in which they held a 381-207 edge. Key to the turnaround has been 1st year HC Vrabel, a former Patriot player who turned around the culture of this team and benefited from the 2ndyear improvement of QB May. They are a slightly superior offensive team to the visitor BUT, as we all witnessed on MNF, HOUSTON IS THE BEST DEFENSIVE TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. That includes a +17 Net TO margin, 2nd only to the Bears in what figures to be a highly competitive contest. Even though New England holds the situational advantage in terms of rest and site, my opinion still lies with Houston as underdog in a game that could well go down to the final play. In that regard, PK Fairbairn is a most reliable weapon. Hidden advantage for Houston in this one is the stats that were accrued against the #4 schedule vs. the #32 SOS of New England.
3% LA Rams (-3.5) 6:30 PM ET
Each team has 8 days’ rest with Chicago benefiting from a home/home scenario vis a vis the Rams playing consecutive road games. We faded the Rams last week as the Panthers covered the double-digit spread which now means Wild Card Playoff home dogs are 37-15 ATS. They certainly did not expend as much energy as Chicago did in yet another comeback vs. Green Bay. Staying true to this year’s MO, the Bears trailed the Packers 3-21 at halftime. True to form, however, the Bears rallied for a 31-27 win when QB Williams connected on a 4th down TDP with 5 minutes remaining. Even more remarkable is that they overcame a -2 Net TO disadvantage to get the victory. Aided by their league-best +22 Net TO margin and win chills which may approach negative degrees, there are clear reasons why the Bears could build on their record of 7 wins by 6 or less points and winning 7 games when trailing at the 2 minute mark. The Rams, however, are clearly the better statistical team holding a 1.2 Net YPPL differential, easily qualifying in all 4 categories of the defensive metrics. Those numbers are against the hardest schedule in the league vis a vis the Bears who had a #24 SOS. They will certainly be prepared for the Bears in the 2nd half.
