Raptors fresh off a 141 point performance last night in a game that went to OT which saw the starters play 40+ minutes and now play today on the BTB.
Magic fresh off a comeback victory in a game that also went well over the total scoring 127 points with 80 of them coming in the 2H of the game as they caught fire facing a very bad Nuggets defense.
Let us keep this as simple as possible. If you wanted a fast paced game you are looking at the wrong one with the Raptors being one of the slowest paced teams in the league. RJ Barrett is able to take this team up a notch offensively but will still be on a minutes restriction for the time being. Also a decent chance they could sit him on the BTN with him still being questionable, like this regardless.
Both of these teams in December rank 26th and 27th respectively in ORTG and both are top 15 in
DRTG with both teams not playing fast. Magic are healthier at key defensive positions and l expect a defensive battle. Raptors thrive on second chance points being 10th in the league in OREB% while the Magic rank 7th in DREB%.
This is absolutely getting hammered by sharps due to the Raptors being fresh off a 170 point OT game where starters will be tired, and Magic traveling up to Canada after a huge offensive performance against a weak defense.
Some crazy RLM on this on this one with the whole world backing the Nuggets to not lose 2 times in a row. The heat were cold for a good 8 game stretch but when this offense gets goin they are very tough to stop and they get another favorable matchup facing what we already know to be a very bad Denver defense.
We also get the revenge angle for losing by 10 in Denver earlier in the season but now get to play on the home turf. This Heat defense ranks 4th in DRTG on the season and limit 3s at a top 5 rate where the Nuggets thrive being 1st in the NBA in %.
Something interesting | found are the Nuggets are just 4-8 ATS on the season when facing teams that rank inside the top 10 in pace. Heat run the fastest pace in the league and will move the ball around on this banged up Nuggets team.
In the previous matchup Bam went down just 8 min into the game, which led to the Nuggets out rebounding the Heat by 30... yes 30 and that was also with Gordan and Braun in the lineup. They now are missing Braun, Gordan and Johnson and will struggle to guard this heat team.
Have a ton of sharp signals on this one, and with all the money on the Nuggets this line continues to fall.
This one is pretty simple and its the fact that the Rams goal is to get healthy and the Falcons are still adamant about competing and winning football games. They get to be at Home in this one which will be huge.
Rams will once again be without Adams, and will have no Dotson on the line. They also have Alaric Jackson and Braden Fiske listed as Questionable as they prioritize their playoff health.
Sharp money has drove this line down from 8.5.
Expecting a good game from Cousins attacking a banged up defense and one that has been bottom 10 in passing yards allowed on the season. Kirk Cousins with O expectations is when you want to back him.
Will attach some systems backing this in a little bit.
The Pick: My 60 Dime winner is the Atlanta Falcons.
The Line: The current line is +7 1/2 at the majority of books in Vegas and offshore as of 8:10 am EST. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.