Slugger of the Day 2023

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Paredes shat his diaper yesterday.

I’ll go with this today:

Diggity: 3-9, +0.00

MAX MUNCY (LAD) +250

 

[Tanko]

Paredes shat his diaper yesterday.

I’ll go with this today:

Diggity: 3-9, +0.00

MAX MUNCY (LAD) +250

Wow. Muncy was my 2nd choice of the day...
I hope you hit it Diggity.





I hope I didn't fk'n "mush" you.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

I think the bums I picked the last two days went a combined 0 for 8 at the plate.

embarrassing

 

[Tanko]

I think the bums I picked the last two days went a combined 0 for 8 at the plate.

embarrassing

I feel you. I had Yordan Alverez two days in a row against pitchers offering up HRs.... 2 for 8 at the plate. Only 1 hit was close to a HR. SMH.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Diggity: 3-10, -1.00

WHIT MERRIFIELD (TOR) +600

 

[KVB]

KVB: 0-0, 0.00

Charlie Blackmon +500

 

[Leisure]

1-3 0.00

Brandon Lowe TB +300

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

KVB: 0-0, 0.00

Charlie Blackmon +500

I almost picked Charlie today.

He was +600 earlier this morning

I only know that because I was looking at him

 

[KVB]

I just used BOL, didn't even think about line shopping. BAS basically uses BOL, but I know, for example, bet105, if you can get down, has Blackmon OVER.5 HRs at +747.

I can also get Blackmon at +600 at Bovada.

For some reason I was thinking we had to use BOL.

Can I change my odds?

 

[Tanko]

I just used BOL, didn't even think about line shopping. BAS basically uses BOL, but I know, for example, bet105, if you can get down, has Blackmon OVER.5 HRs at +747.

I can also get Blackmon at +600 at Bovada.

For some reason I was thinking we had to use BOL.

Can I change my odds?

Not sure if we are required to use BOL or if Diggity just stated that's what he uses.
GL KVB.

Jerky, I’ll be using BetOnline.

 

[KVB]

KVB: 0-0, 0.00

Charlie Blackmon +500

Ok, then I request to officially change my pick to:

Charlie Blackmon +600
Bovada

If I shouldn't do it, tell me now.

From now on I'll line shop these but say the book. I won't use bet105, it's a little too exclusive, low limits, and not widespread.

Even DK has Blackmon at +600 and BetMGM has over .5 HRs at +700.

Gimme the +600 today and I'll be better about posting the book going forward.

Those OVER .5 HR props are interesting, gives you and idea of the vig being charged, and then when you see the any HR prop at less, like +500 or +600, you can see a little more of the costs being applied.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Yeah, use the best odds you can find.

I’m not stating a book because as Tanko said I’m only using BO for this.

 

[KVB]

So check this out.

Bet MGM and Bet105 have Total of .5 runs, and the Under is heavily juiced. Here are the lines for Blackmon Total .5 runs at those two...

BetMGM
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	700​	0.1250​	0.0796​	0.1150​	769.23​
Un .5	-2500​	0.9615​		0.8850​	-769.23​
Bet105
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	747​	0.1181​	0.0606​	0.1109​	801.63​
Un .5	-1767​	0.9464​		0.8891​	-801.63​

BetMGM moved to +725, and Bet105 made a move too. Remember they are low vig, and they are, compared to BetMGM...

Bet105 Move…
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	862​	0.1040​	0.0584​	0.0979​	921.68​
Un .5	-2286​	0.9581​		0.9021​	-921.68​

Those holds are very high, but those Under bets are juiced to the core. For example, here's Pinny's game line for the Pitt vs. Colo game tonight, notice the hold of 2.1% on the major sports. Bookmaking is a business and volume matters...

Pitt vs. Colo moneyline (Pinny)…
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Away	121​	0.4525​	0.0210​	0.4430​	125.74​
Home	-132​	0.5690​		0.5570​	-125.74​

Most of you know this but, when I can post a video, my "Knowing Your Markets" video goes into how we make the vig free line and how you can see the types of bettors many books can cater too, and all they'd have to do increase their volume. Which in turn invites sharper action. That's a risk some books simply won't take.

Yet BOL holds at +500 and Bovada at +600, and they don't offer the other side of the bet. That's another old school lesson in gambling, beware of the future and prop where only one side is offered as that side is often shorted on it's payout. Market factors aren't at play like when both side are offered.

We have an example of that here today, just among these few books that represent onshore, offshore, low vig, big book, small book, etc.

Anyway, the line has moved against us on Blackmon, no matter how you look at.

 

[KVB]

For some reason, there's a "1." before every number in those tables.

I did not put those there, lol. The just happened when I posted.

 

[Tanko]

So check this out.

Bet MGM and Bet105 have Total of .5 runs, and the Under is heavily juiced. Here are the lines for Blackmon Total .5 runs at those two...

BetMGM
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	700​	0.1250​	0.0796​	0.1150​	769.23​
Un .5	-2500​	0.9615​		0.8850​	-769.23​
Bet105
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	747​	0.1181​	0.0606​	0.1109​	801.63​
Un .5	-1767​	0.9464​		0.8891​	-801.63​

BetMGM moved to +725, and Bet105 made a move too. Remember they are low vig, and they are, compared to BetMGM...

Bet105 Move…
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	862​	0.1040​	0.0584​	0.0979​	921.68​
Un .5	-2286​	0.9581​		0.9021​	-921.68​

Those holds are very high, but those Under bets are juiced to the core. For example, here's Pinny's game line for the Pitt vs. Colo game tonight, notice the hold of 2.1% on the major sports. Bookmaking is a business and volume matters...

Pitt vs. Colo moneyline (Pinny)…
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Away	121​	0.4525​	0.0210​	0.4430​	125.74​
Home	-132​	0.5690​		0.5570​	-125.74​

Most of you know this but, when I can post a video, my "Knowing Your Markets" video goes into how we make the vig free line and how you can see the types of bettors many books can cater too, and all they'd have to do increase their volume. Which in turn invites sharper action. That's a risk some books simply won't take.

Yet BOL holds at +500 and Bovada at +600, and they don't offer the other side of the bet. That's another old school lesson in gambling, beware of the future and prop where only one side is offered as that side is often shorted on it's payout. Market factors aren't at play like when both side are offered.

We have an example of that here today, just among these few books that represent onshore, offshore, low vig, big book, small book, etc.

Anyway, the line has moved against us on Blackmon, no matter how you look at.

Hell yeah. That's what I'm talking about!!!!

KVB, This is the kind of post that excites the s#it out of me. Seriously, I think I felt a twinge in my pants when I read it. I've missed seeing analysis like this since your last video.

Edit: Had to change the GIF... That one was going to be me a seizure.

 

[Tanko]

For some reason, there's a "1." before every number in those tables.

I did not put those there, lol. The just happened when I posted.

Yep. There is a problem posting numbers on BMR. It does that. I've mentioned it.
Before I post an Excel table, I convert it to text to avoid the issue.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

So check this out.

Bet MGM and Bet105 have Total of .5 runs, and the Under is heavily juiced. Here are the lines for Blackmon Total .5 runs at those two...

BetMGM
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	700​	0.1250​	0.0796​	0.1150​	769.23​
Un .5	-2500​	0.9615​		0.8850​	-769.23​
Bet105
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	747​	0.1181​	0.0606​	0.1109​	801.63​
Un .5	-1767​	0.9464​		0.8891​	-801.63​

BetMGM moved to +725, and Bet105 made a move too. Remember they are low vig, and they are, compared to BetMGM...

Bet105 Move…
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	862​	0.1040​	0.0584​	0.0979​	921.68​
Un .5	-2286​	0.9581​		0.9021​	-921.68​

Those holds are very high, but those Under bets are juiced to the core. For example, here's Pinny's game line for the Pitt vs. Colo game tonight, notice the hold of 2.1% on the major sports. Bookmaking is a business and volume matters...

Pitt vs. Colo moneyline (Pinny)…
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Away	121​	0.4525​	0.0210​	0.4430​	125.74​
Home	-132​	0.5690​		0.5570​	-125.74​

Most of you know this but, when I can post a video, my "Knowing Your Markets" video goes into how we make the vig free line and how you can see the types of bettors many books can cater too, and all they'd have to do increase their volume. Which in turn invites sharper action. That's a risk some books simply won't take.

Yet BOL holds at +500 and Bovada at +600, and they don't offer the other side of the bet. That's another old school lesson in gambling, beware of the future and prop where only one side is offered as that side is often shorted on it's payout. Market factors aren't at play like when both side are offered.

We have an example of that here today, just among these few books that represent onshore, offshore, low vig, big book, small book, etc.

Anyway, the line has moved against us on Blackmon, no matter how you look at.

This guy fukks

 

[jjgold]

Impressive tutorial

So check this out.

Bet MGM and Bet105 have Total of .5 runs, and the Under is heavily juiced. Here are the lines for Blackmon Total .5 runs at those two...

BetMGM
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	700​	0.1250​	0.0796​	0.1150​	769.23​
Un .5	-2500​	0.9615​		0.8850​	-769.23​
Bet105
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	747​	0.1181​	0.0606​	0.1109​	801.63​
Un .5	-1767​	0.9464​		0.8891​	-801.63​

BetMGM moved to +725, and Bet105 made a move too. Remember they are low vig, and they are, compared to BetMGM...

Bet105 Move…
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Ov .5	862​	0.1040​	0.0584​	0.0979​	921.68​
Un .5	-2286​	0.9581​		0.9021​	-921.68​

Those holds are very high, but those Under bets are juiced to the core. For example, here's Pinny's game line for the Pitt vs. Colo game tonight, notice the hold of 2.1% on the major sports. Bookmaking is a business and volume matters...

Pitt vs. Colo moneyline (Pinny)…
	Moneyline	Imp. Prob	Hold	Vig Free	Vig Free line
Away	121​	0.4525​	0.0210​	0.4430​	125.74​
Home	-132​	0.5690​		0.5570​	-125.74​

Most of you know this but, when I can post a video, my "Knowing Your Markets" video goes into how we make the vig free line and how you can see the types of bettors many books can cater too, and all they'd have to do increase their volume. Which in turn invites sharper action. That's a risk some books simply won't take.

Yet BOL holds at +500 and Bovada at +600, and they don't offer the other side of the bet. That's another old school lesson in gambling, beware of the future and prop where only one side is offered as that side is often shorted on it's payout. Market factors aren't at play like when both side are offered.

We have an example of that here today, just among these few books that represent onshore, offshore, low vig, big book, small book, etc.

Anyway, the line has moved against us on Blackmon, no matter how you look at.

 

[KVB]

It was Bryant that went off today, not Blackmon.

 

[JDS]

This guy fukks

KVB on that hard & crisp doggystyle with those market numbers.