Matt Severance
FEATURED PICK
MILWAUKEE @ CHI. CUBS | 08/10 | 2:20 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS +1.5
ANALYSIS: Game 1 of a DH so only scheduled for seven innings. FiveThirtyEight gives the Brewers a 56 percent chance of winning, which would mean only around -130 on the moneyline -- yet they are priced -190. Thus, I have to take Cubs runline at -105 simply for value. Yes, Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta has been great but a bit worse on the road and during the day. The Brewers aren't starting Christian Yelich, Omar Narvaez or Rowdy Tellez. That's some decent thunder on the bench. It's the MLB starting debut of Cubs lefty Justin Steele, but he does have a 2.03 ERA in 13.1 relief innings. He has been stretched out in Triple-A, where he had a 0.87 ERA with 27 strikeouts in his final five starts.
L.A. ANGELS @ TORONTO | 08/10 | 6:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -145
ANALYSIS: First game of a doubleheader so only scheduled for seven innings. And Toronto is the home team just for Game 1 even though it's at Angel Stadium because it's a makeup game from Dunedin, Fla; LAA will then be the usual home side for Game 2. Jays starter Steven Matz comes off his best outing of the year, throwing six shutout innings vs. Cleveland. The Halos' Chris Rodriguez (2-1, 3.86) is a converted reliever. Toronto is 6-1 in its past seven vs. a right-handed starter. The lineups just aren't close.