Justin Perri
OAKLAND @ TEXAS | 07/11 | 2:35 PM EDT
TEXAS +1.5
ANALYSIS: I'll play what I now call 'the Matt Severance,' aka the home underdog run line. I actually like the Rangers to win after getting the Oakland ML call correct Saturday. But to make sure we avoid a one-run loss, I'm happy to grab the juice. Texas LHP Kolby Allard is not a household name, but he owns numbers that rank him in the top quarter of the league for expected ERA and wOBA, as well as an elite walk rate. On the other side, Oakland RHP Chris Bassitt has been worse on the road (4.19 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) than at home (2.55, 0.92), and I could see him struggling. To be safe, we are taking Texas +1.5 runs at -135.
ATLANTA @ MIAMI | 07/11 | 1:10 PM EDT
UNDER 7
ANALYSIS: Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) is done for the year, and you have to wonder where the offense is going to come from for the Braves. However, this play is not a reaction to the ACL injury to the Atlanta star, but more a play on the Marlins playing in the worst run-scoring environment of any park during day games. That being said, there is a distinct chance the Braves are only able to muster a run or two against Miami RHP Pablo Lopez, who has allowed just four runs in his last 17 innings. This one should stay Under the total.
N.Y. YANKEES @ HOUSTON | 07/11 | 2:10 PM EDT
OVER 8.5
ANALYSIS: After Houston's 1-0 defeat Saturday, I like both teams to pick up the pace a bit - especially the Astros against RHP Jameson Taillon, who has given up at least four runs in all but his most recent road start against Seattle. Opposing Taillon is LHP Framber Valdez, a young arm that has been a bright spot for Houston. Valdez has pitched a bit worse at home, allowing 3-plus runs in each of his last two starts in Houston. His strikeout numbers are a bit below league average, and that could prove dangerous against a solid Yankees lineup. I like this one to get to nine or 10 runs, and the weather supports the play. Minute Maid Park is one of the best hitter's parks for day games. Take the Over.