BTC Sports
Gator Bait
Game: (191) Florida at (192) LSU
Date/Time: Oct 16 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Florida -12.0 (-115)
It's the “square” play on the board and you are getting NO line value whatsoever, but I still can't help myself. Florida should crush LSU this afternoon. Here's the list of players that LSU has lost over the last two weeks:
All-American cornerback Eli Ricks
All-American cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.
All-SEC defensive end Ali Gaye
Starting Safety Major Burns
Starting defensive tackle Joseph Evans
Starting defensive end Andre Anthony
WR Kayshon Boutte was leading the country in touchdowns when he got injured.
In LSU's six games this season, the Tigers have used five different offensive line combinations. That's a recipe for disaster against one of the best defensive lines in the country. On the flip side, Florida will be getting significant starters back this week. Projected first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam will return this week along with starting left tackle Richard Gouraige.
Tiger Stadium was less-than-full in LSU's last game against Auburn, and we are likely to see a similar scene for this 11am ET kickoff. This will not be the “Death Valley” that's one of the most intimidating venues in college football. Coach O's coffin is being prepared, and Florida would love to deliver the final nail.
Cardinals with the Cover
Game: (153) Ball State at (154) Eastern Michigan
Date/Time: Oct 16 2021 2:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Ball State -1.0 (-110)
I played against Eastern Michigan last week. I lost. I'm going back to the well again. If they beat me again, well, I'll tip my cap and move on. The Eagles are 10-17 straight-up in their last 27 conference home games. No, the 2004 meeting between these two teams doesn't affect Saturday's game. But, Ball State holds a 15-7 advantage in this series. There's a talent gap between these two teams.
So far this season, Eastern Michigan has played Wisconsin (No. 24 in the Sagarin ratings), St Francis (No. 211), UMass (No. 180), Texas State (No. 150), Northern Illinois (No. 81) and Miami, Ohio (No. 104). That is an atrocious schedule. Ball State has played Army, Penn State, Toledo, Western Michigan and Wyoming. That's practically a different sport compared to what Eastern Michigan has played.
Ball State had some injury issues in the beginning of the season, but that's going to happen when you play against Penn State and Army. Those have been addressed, and the Cardinals' defense put on a fantastic performance last week. QB Drew Plitt is a 23-year-old fifth-year senior for Ball State. The Cardinals will have a pretty significant advantage at quarterback. If EMU beats me again, then I'll tip my cap. But for now, I'm laying the very small number with Ball State.
Canes are Collapsing
Game: (125) Miami Florida at (126) North Carolina
Date/Time: Oct 16 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: North Carolina -7.0 (-120)
We are at the point of the season where teams are recognizing their fate. I played on LSU last week, and that was a mistake. The Tigers know that they are heading for a disappointing season, and their level of effort reflected it. I expect to see the same thing out of Miami this week.
Manny Diaz is almost assuredly going to be fired in the very near future. The No. 1 (D'Eriq King) and No. 2 (Jake Garcia) quarterbacks are both out. The Hurricanes are 2-3 and will likely be underdogs in most of their remaining games, which means a bowl berth is unlikely (and would they want to go anyway?). There was a fight at practice last week, which resulted in a players-only meeting. Diaz said there's friction in the locker room because he's attempting to give younger guys playing time, but the older players are unwilling to give up their spot. They are a mess.
Take a look at Miami's resume, and there's not a single thing that they do well: No. 92 in offensive success rate; No. 99 in defensive success rate; No. 105 in points per dive on offense; No. 100 in points allowed per drive on defense; No. 87 in 3rd and 4th down success on offense; and No. 87 in 3rd and 4th down success on defense. There's not one area of the team that you can point to and say, “Well, they're pretty good there…” And that was with a very talented, experience quarterback. Now, you're introducing a freshman making his second appearance on the road.
Shop Around! There are still a handful of -7's available, including Circa (-110); SuperBook Sports (-110); and William Hill (-120). At -7, this is a 4-unit play for me. If it moves to -7.5 across the board, knock your unit size down a bit but this is still a strong play for me.
Owls on the Hunt
Game: (201) Rice at (202) UTSA
Date/Time: Oct 16 2021 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Rice +17.0 (-110)
Tip your cap to UTSA for a fantastic start to the season, but the Road Runners have always been the “hunters” in Conference USA and now they are the hunted. UTSA played Illinois, Memphis and UNLV in their non-conference schedule. The Illini are a mess, UNLV hasn't won a game in two years and Memphis lost to Temple and Tulsa. How much stock are we putting into UTSA's undefeated record? Meanwhile, Rice played Arkansas, Texas and Houston. There's a little bit of a disparity there, dontcha think? UTSA wants to run the ball with Sincere McCormick. They don't have a run-and-gun passing offense that's capable of running up the score. Tossing out FCS-level Lamar, UTSA's wins have come by 7, 14, 3, 7 and 6. In their preseason NCAAF guide, The GoldSheet posted their projected spreads for every game this season. Before the season, they had this lined at UTSA -8. Have you seen enough out of either team to warrant such a steep adjustment to the -17 line we're currently seeing?
Overrated BC
Game: (141) NC State at (142) Boston College
Date/Time: Oct 16 2021 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: NC State -3.0 (-115)
Even though they played Clemson two weeks ago, Boston College's strength of schedule remains one of the worst in FBS college football. The Eagles allowed 28 points to a UMass team that's 1-5 and was tied with UConn in the fourth quarter last week. The Eagles went to overtime with Missouri, who just gave up 62 points last week and has failed to cover the point spread in nine-straight games. The Eagles were out-gained by Temple, who has lost by scores of 61-14 and 52-3 so far this season. Look through Boston College's box scores this season and there really isn't much to like.
By now, we've figured out the teams that NC State struggles with: Teams that can make explosive plays through the air. Austin Kendall from Louisiana Tech was 26-of-43 for 341 yards and three touchdowns. Will Rogers from Mississippi State was 33-of-49 for 294 yards and two touchdowns. Boston College doesn't have that. Dennis Grosel has a 56.2-percent completion percentage in his career with a 19-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Clemson held Boston college to 13 points and 4.8 yards per play two weeks ago. NC State is very capable of putting on a similar performance. NC State's defense is No. 1 in 3rd and 4th down success rate; No. 9 in points allowed per drive; and No. 18 in defensive success rate.
At -3 (-115 or better) this is a 4-unit play for me. Shop around. At the time of posting, there are plenty of affordable -3's out there. If the line moves to -3.5 across the board, knock your unit size down a hair, but it's still a play for me.
