Saturday-Friday May 17 bases

[BMR Ivy]

BOL with your plays today Pirate!

 

[piratealew]

Friday Slate:
*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Bodymore Orioles-124
⭐️Brewers-104
⭐️Beantown Red Sux-109
⭐️Filthadelphia Phillies-1.5118
⭐️NY Mess-112
⭐️NY Skanks-1.5-115
⭐️Mistake on the Lake Guardians-116
⭐️Shittsburgh Pirates/CHIRAQ Cubs Over 7-120
⭐️Rocks/Gigantes Over 7-115
Dogwood City Braves-1.5+100
Tigers-133
Cubbies-102
Tampa+158
Rangers-1-110
Royals-1-124
Nasty Nats/Killadelphia Fightin Phillies Over 7-125
Millwacky Brewers/Space City Asstros Over 8-120

Yes, I love making fun of cities and teams to their historical nicknames or pop culture. Having traveled about 250-300 nights a year around the country for over 15 years in consulting & sales, I got to see many of these cities and teams frequently. So dont take offense if you're from that city or team.

 

[BMR Ivy]

get'em today pirate.

 

[piratealew]

Dodgers-1-135

 

[piratealew]

Hit the cubs over easily as Pirates did all themselves, and cubs didnt bring their bats til too late.

The "umpire overs" have been hot the last week. I noticed a couple more that Stood out tonight.
I already liked this over before as games at Mia stadium this year have been going over the total frequently, due to poor pitching, with 8 of the last 9 in Miami having gone over. Tonight behind the plate is Andy Fletcher, whom I've highlighted once before. He's notoriously Hitt-friendly, calling only 61.6% of pitches this year as strikes (Avg is 65ish%). His last game he called, he called a paltry 54.8% pitches strikes. In 9 games as home plate ump this year, He's averaging 13.1 runs in his games (9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26). Notice, Not even one of these games stayed under 8, all went over the posted total for tonight's game. His last game in Miami in early May netted 9 runs, and none of these games have been in Miami High Colorado. I already have enough on Mets to win so this will be a regular play.

NY Mets/Miami Over 7-130

The other game with a progidigously Hitter friendly lean is LAA Vs Texas Rangers, where Adrian Johnson is behind home. In 8 games this year, he's only called 61.9% strikes, his games have hit 71.4% over with an avg of 11.8 runs per game, With only 3 games going under tonight's posted total of 8.5-9 (16, 18, 8, 9, 8, 6, 15, 14). None of these games were in Colorado, and in this game with 2 pitchers that are not shut-down Cy young type aces and both with ERA's over 2.9 (Anderson-2.92 and Heaney 4.39), I believe we should see some runs in this game. Both pitchers are going at max about 6 innings, so this will leave plenty of time for the bullpens, which have not been the strength of either team (Texas is 2nd to last in MLB with a Bullpen ERA of 5.05, while LAA is dead last at 5.17. That's right, the 2 worst teams for Bullpen ERA and giving up runs are going tonight. Anderson's last start against the rangers ended in a 9-6 game last year. I could see something similar tonight. This one I like a little more, so I'm making it a top play.

⭐️LAA/Texas Over 9+100

Note: In my 2nd top total tonight from earlier (Rocks/Giants Over), Ryan Blakney has been assigned to be the home plate ump, which makes me happy I am playing that over. In 7 games he's umped this year, 80% have gone over, including all but one going over tonights posted total of 7 (8, 8, 12, 16, 5, 9, 9). His lowest total of 5 was posted in SFO but with Logan Webb pitching that game for Giants, along with Waldron for Padres. Both pitchers are ground ball pitchers, not fly ball heavy so that was more expected. Tonight the rocks are pitching one of the worst in Ryan Feltner with a 5.2 ERA, Who is succeptable to the long ball and big innings. This game also features 2 of the bottom tier Bullpens just like the Rangers/Angels game. Rockies come in 8th from the very bottom at 4.35 ERA and Giants even worse, comiing in 4th from last at 4.90 era. With the way the rockies have been hitting lately, and these bad bullpens with a hitter friendly ump, it makes me glad I played the over this morning.

 

[piratealew]

Another Umpire over cashes with the Mets/Marlins over 7...

Mason Black gets called up from Triple A again to start unexpectedly for the giants. I'll take the dog that's on a good win Streak.

Rockies+124

 

[piratealew]

Awesome day to close out the week. 13-8, 7-3 top plays, hit the #1 and hit all the "umpire overs" again. 8-0 this week on the overs with the hitter-friendly umps.

 

[doyleellis11]

Nice Work Pirate ! You know your Umps ! Good luck today a Thank You !