Saturday-Friday June 1

[piratealew]

Braves bringing up a kid straight from Double A, bypassing Triple A. He actually pitched in Single A most of this year so far while Nats are going with one of their best lately Gore who's given up 5 runs over his last 3 starts.

Nationals ML+120 (F5)

 

[piratealew]

1 Umpire Over---LAD/NYM Over 8.5-W/Adrian Johnson who is avg 11.3 runs per game 7-2-2 to the over with games going like this 8, 10 12, 16, 8, 9, 8, 6. 15. 14 on 61.9% called strikes. The ERA for his games is a whopping 5.5. With the dodgers bats heating up, I have this game pegged at 9 runs already and with AJ assistance we could see double digits.

Another one cashes easily. 25-6 on these calls now

forgot my Tampa play earlier so I'll jump in live 0-0 3rd inning

Tampa-1-145 (Live Bottom 3rd)

 

[piratealew]

Dont have much time for a long writeup, but here's a quick snippet.

***2nd Umpire Over-Seattle/Houston Over 7-120--Nate Tomlinson-This guy is a notorious hitter friendly ump, his 9 games this year are averaging 9.33 runs per game, on nearly 7 walks a game, with a 2.6 SO/K ratio, and 63% called strikes, and 6-3 to the over. In 2023 his 35 games averaged 11.20 runs per game on 63% called strikes as well. Tomlinson will surely help tonight especially considering Seattle's SP Kirby has been wild this year, and has been a gas can lately, giving up 5 runs last 2 outings. Astros already avg 4.5 runs per game so i think they get at least 5-6 here and the M's should be able to tack on at least 2-3 tonight. Both teams bullpens are ranked outside the top half of teams in MLB in terms of ERA, and I dont see either pitcher going deep tonight.

 

[piratealew]

Not the best day but not a bad day like the day before. Made out with a little + thanks to the #1 Dodgers and 3 out of the top 5. Night games let us down.

Small slate today again. We grind on.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Seattle-134
⭐️Brewers/Cubs Over 8-125 (See writeup)
⭐️Tampa-135
⭐️Royals+117
⭐️Yankees/Angels Over 8-120
⭐️Arizona-113
⭐️Tigers+110
Brewers-117
Yankees-1-145
Nasty Nats+1.5-115
Royals/Twinks Over 7.5-115
Arizona/NYM Over 6.5-135
Braves/Nats over 8.5-115


*First umpire Over-Brewers/Cubs Over 8-With Laz Diaz, whi si 6-5 to the over this year, with an average of 4.6 ERA, and almost 10 runs per game (9,9) over 11 games behind the plate, with a 2.2 K/SO ratio, on 64% called strikes. His games have seen only 4 go under today's total going like this 8, 9, 6, 11, 23, 6, 9, 9, 7, 16, 5. He's not the most hitter friendly ump, but recently has been calling less strikes, more walks, resulting in more runs. His last 2 years in AL games he's officated 32, and has an 18-14 record to the over in that span with almost 9 runs per game. With this being a day game, and milwaukee most lilkely opening the dome for the day, the ball flies a lot better. As we saw with 2 good pitchers last night, these teams can hit regardless. The pitching isn't as good today with Rea giving up 12 in his last 3, and Taillon 8 in his last 3, not making it past the 5th inning. brewers avg 5 runs per game while allowing 4.1 and Cubs avg 4.3. while allowing 4.4. I have this game just over 9 runs and with some help with Diaz we could easily see Double Digits again.

 

[piratealew]

8-5 Thursday, 1-0 Umpire Overs yesterday. Decent day. Full card again Friday

636-555 YTD/ (336-268 Top plays) Umpire Overs=26-7

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Baltimore-135
⭐️Texas-116
⭐️Cubs-139
⭐️Cleveland-1-140
⭐️Houston+102
⭐️Yankees-117
⭐️Royals+115
⭐️Boston-0.5-110 (F5-First 5 innings)
⭐️Cardinals/Phils Over 7.5-120
⭐️Rockies/Dodgers Over 8-115
Phillies-0.5-120 (F5-First 5 innings)
Mariners-1-105
Brewers-150
Toronto-1-105
Dodgers-1.5-120
Braves-1.5-103
Arizona+106
Cincy/Chicago Over 7.5-120
Washington/Cleveland Over 7.5-115
Pittsburgh/Toronto Over 8-120

Only 2 umpire games have been announced as of 930AM and they're both more pitcher friendly/neutral umps. Slightly more overs this year but run average in the 8 range. with SO/K ratios higher than I'd like, and ERA lower than what would be ideal. Will keep checking later in day as more get posted.

 

[doyleellis11]

Thank You Pirate ! Will check back later for Umpire games , You are killing it ! . Appricate your help an Good Luck today

 

[piratealew]

Hopefully they'll announce the rest of the batch soon, and we have some gems. So far 3 pitcher friendly umps out now.

Texas/Miami Over 8-130

 

[doyleellis11]

 

[piratealew]

Hopefully they'll announce the rest of the batch soon, and we have some gems. So far 3 pitcher friendly umps out now.

Texas/Miami Over 8-130

***1st Umpire Over today--Texas/Miami Over 8- with Lance Barksdale behind the plate. Admittedly he isn't the most hitter friendly ump, in a ratings book with extreme hitter friendly and hitter friendly, he is the latter. His metrics also show he is more pro hitter, as this year he is 7-5 to the over, with 8.8 Runs per game, with a SO/Walk ratio of 1.97 (below 2 is terrible for pitchers), on 61.6% called strikes (Very low). Only 4 games out of his 12 have gone under today's posted total, they've gone 12, 9, 9, 4, 3, 11, 10, 10, 8, 17, 5, 7. Interestingly, his only game in Colorado produced only 8 runs. I already played the over before the announcement as I favor 9 runs in this game, and with his assistance me might see 1 or 2 more.

 

[piratealew]

Tampa/Baltimore Over 7.5-130