Random Horse Wagers

[rdalert447]

Tampa is over until November, Keeneland is done until October, Belmont is still closed for renovation, so it’s kind of like the dead zone for me right now.

I’ll play a few here and there until Colonial and Saratoga start in July. Just to keep up with current events.

 

[rdalert447]

Monmouth Race 2
$20 win #5 MO’s Vino Mesa 5-1
Trainer Tony Wilson had a disastrous Tampa meet. Right now his records stands at 1-40 for the year. Brutal. But he’s a good claiming-level trainer so I expect him to rebound at his home track.

Aqu Race 5
$20 win #2 Solomini’s Legacy 15-1
One of my longtime favorite trainers to bet, James Ferraro. Doesn’t win at a high percentage, but when he does it’s usually a bomb. I try and limit the plays to when he’s bringing a horse back in under three weeks since the last start. Like today. I’ve caught some huge winners from him in that scenario over the years.

Churchill Race 8
$20 win #3 Lunar Module 4-1
Trainer Blair has been quiet for a couple months. Should start getting some wins at Churchill. Hoping for an odds drift.

Risked $60

 

[jjgold]

Let’s get off to a good start

 

[Wagerallsports]

rd if you don't mind my asking, where are you placing majority of your wagers?

 

[rdalert447]

Horses at Hollywood Races and Saratoga Bets.

Both Apps suck though. Decent VIP promos at Hollywood.

Sports with two locals.

 

[Wagerallsports]

 

[str]

Monmouth Race 2
$20 win #5 MO’s Vino Mesa 5-1
Trainer Tony Wilson had a disastrous Tampa meet. Right now his records stands at 1-40 for the year. Brutal. But he’s a good claiming-level trainer so I expect him to rebound at his home track.

Aqu Race 5
$20 win #2 Solomini’s Legacy 15-1
One of my longtime favorite trainers to bet, James Ferraro. Doesn’t win at a high percentage, but when he does it’s usually a bomb. I try and limit the plays to when he’s bringing a horse back in under three weeks since the last start. Like today. I’ve caught some huge winners from him in that scenario over the years.

Churchill Race 8
$20 win #3 Lunar Module 4-1
Trainer Blair has been quiet for a couple months. Should start getting some wins at Churchill. Hoping for an odds drift.

Risked $60

I don’t know 2 of those people but that is a perfect way to look at James Ferraro. It makes perfect sense for a few reasons. Excellent analysis sir.

 

[str]

Is Tampa on the same par as Monmouth in regards to true value of claiming horses in equal claiming prices ?
I don’t know but would have assumed that Monmouth would have been a step up at least a little as to quality of horse at equal value. I don’t follow so honestly don’t know.

 

[rdalert447]

I don’t know 2 of those people but that is a perfect way to look at James Ferraro. It makes perfect sense for a few reasons. Excellent analysis sir.

Thanks STR!

 

[rdalert447]

Is Tampa on the same par as Monmouth in regards to true value of claiming horses in equal claiming prices ?
I don’t know but would have assumed that Monmouth would have been a step up at least a little as to quality of horse at equal value. I don’t follow so honestly don’t know.

Purses and conditions might differ slightly, but you’ll see a bunch of Tampa trainers summer in Monmouth, and vice versa wintering in Tampa, so the competition should be close to par. Trainers like Kathleen O’Connell, Gerald Bennett, Wilson, and others. Most of the other Tampa trainers head to Delaware and Presque Isle.

 

[str]

Purses and conditions might differ slightly, but you’ll see a bunch of Tampa trainers summer in Monmouth, and vice versa wintering in Tampa, so the competition should be close to par. Trainers like Kathleen O’Connell, Gerald Bennett, Wilson, and others. Most of the other Tampa trainers head to Delaware and Presque Isle.

Keep an eye on early dominance from one circuit to another. Purses are one way to weigh the true quality of claimers and condition allowance races like A other than, 2 other than, etc. but having a handle on that can really help you separate the true quality.
Also watch Kathleen and if she has a habit of slightly dropping certain prices of horse or raise, including n/w of 2,3 and 4 conditions she will basically be telling you what she thinks the true value is. I say her name because she plays to win while others are concerned with losing their horses and not being able to replace them.
Watching her play the game is a big tell. Similar to Linda Rice in NY and most likely any decent percentage trainer that has a history of winning consistently without the drug BS going on.
Hope that makes sense.

 

[rdalert447]

Keep an eye on early dominance from one circuit to another. Purses are one way to weigh the true quality of claimers and condition allowance races like A other than, 2 other than, etc. but having a handle on that can really help you separate the true quality.
Also watch Kathleen and if she has a habit of slightly dropping certain prices of horse or raise, including n/w of 2,3 and 4 conditions she will basically be telling you what she thinks the true value is. I say her name because she plays to win while others are concerned with losing their horses and not being able to replace them.
Watching her play the game is a big tell. Similar to Linda Rice in NY and most likely any decent percentage trainer that has a history of winning consistently without the drug BS going on.
Hope that makes sense.

It certainly does and it’s great info. Figuring out trainer intent is a never ending quest, so any piece of that puzzle is helpful. Thanks!

 

[rdalert447]

I noticed Linda Rice doing that when she was pursuing her first Spa title several years ago. She was dropping everything in class during the final two weeks of the meet at will.
Never thought to pay attention to other trainers doing the same, especially KOC. Good info.

 

[str]

When it comes to trainer intent , it is easier to look at that NOT from the angle of placing a bet. Not that you or anyone is, but having been in the wagering public as a teenager and than becoming a trainer at 21 years of age, trust me when I say that the view is as different as it can possibly be. Just trust that. I would have no reason to not want to help you.
when I started out there were trainers in Md. that wanted to cash bets. As a whole, they were just about all terrible at it. No sense in naming names. Most if not all have passed away anyhow. But my point is, the winning trainers do not even consider betting. The game is purses, wins , and rinse and repeat. Those few at each track that try and cash bets are most likely career low percentage trainers and trust me, they lose way more than they win. But one good story makes up for 20 misfires with that crowd.
if you find a claiming trainer that runs to win and always seems to be under 10-1 and more so than not, one of the top 3 favorites, their actions, placement and even claims can signal true value, the constant will to be in winning spots and who they claim horses from, if they stay in the same circuits yearly will also tell you who they view as inferior or incapable of either preparing a horse to win or spotting a horse correctly to be in the winning spot.
They would never say it about another but actions speak louder than words.
Every circuit has its Kathleen as well as those that just fill out the starting gate. And all those in between.
and once you figure out a trainers pattern of where they place horses and when as well as why, it shows you things no form or figure possibly can. That’s why following a circuit helps you establish patterns and finds opportunities. After a while you can watch Kathleen for instance and know where she will run a horse that just won back. And if you are wrong, you were probably actually right but a circumstance like soundness or ownership not willing to play the game to win will be recognized. Following that will also end up with a trainer change eventually because the trainer and owner have differing interests.
That’s a lot to take in but see if you can try and see that. If so, it will really open up a whole other level of understanding the game and what is going on that the form or figures cannot. Feel free to follow up if that is confusing. Always happy to help.
GL.

 

[BigJay]

 

[rdalert447]

Blanked.

Serves me right for betting on Mother’s Day.

 

[jjgold]

Horses make you wack out