Phoenix/Skybook/Mania

[redrightred]

I think reality is much simpler than you describe. The offshores that used to just copy lines and move off the big boys are in trouble because onshore is now more convenient for Joe Blow than it ever used to be. Thus, their player base became too sharp. Also, bonus abuse got too sophisticated for the Mickey Mouse offshores to deal with. Bonuses/promos were their lifeline in case sharps beat them, but they got killed there too.

At the same time, the big boys offshore will continue to thrive as they have for decades, so long as they insulate themselves carefully from government action. The only threats to BOL right now I see are US government action or internal laziness/incompetence.

Yes, that is how it works. The weak get blown out until you only have the strong book. Gambling is always a scam at its core. There is a winner and a loser. The sharp books are dependent on the losing bettors. As the losing bettors disappear, the winning bettors become the largest part of the action. In the end, the winning bettors will own the book. The sportsbook model is pre-internet. It cannot work anymore.

The only way that a business can operate successfully in gambling online is to have the exchange approach where they are strictly the middle man.

 

[sportsbettor5]

The only way that a business can operate successfully in gambling online is to have the exchange approach where they are strictly the middle man.

This is how BOL/Pinnacle work. They are effectively exchanges. They employ traders to ensure their action is balanced on each match. They have been around, made a lot of money, and will continue to be around. On the other side, I see no reason why the DK model can't have success onshore. So, unlike your thesis, I don't see any further major changes happening. Mickey Mouse books (Jazz family, BetPhoenix, DSI) have collapsed and continue to fall. That's it.

The sharp books are dependent on the losing bettors. As the losing bettors disappear, the winning bettors become the largest part of the action.

No, sharp books like BOL/Pinnacle can survive and thrive even if their entire client base is sharp. I'd throw in Circa as well but I think the overhead they deal with (costs of regulations and brick and mortar) make them vulnerable. Jury out on bet105 as it's too young. BM interesting middle ground case.

 

[redrightred]

This is how BOL/Pinnacle work. They are effectively exchanges. They employ traders to ensure their action is balanced on each match. They have been around, made a lot of money, and will continue to be around. On the other side, I see no reason why the DK model can't have success onshore. So, unlike your thesis, I don't see any further major changes happening. Mickey Mouse books (Jazz family, BetPhoenix, DSI) have collapsed and continue to fall. That's it.

No, sharp books like BOL/Pinnacle can survive and thrive even if their entire client base is sharp. I'd throw in Circa as well but I think the overhead they deal with (costs of regulations and brick and mortar) make them vulnerable. Jury out on bet105 as it's too young. BM interesting middle ground case.

No, and you can see they are starting to have problems. Their problems are just now starting.

This is not going to happen in six months. It will take a decade or two to play out.

 

[sportsbettor5]

No, and you can see they are starting to have problems. Their problems are just now starting.

This is not going to happen in six months. It will take a decade or two to play out.

Trading can and probably will go fully automated with AI over that time period. Otherwise, some iteration of the current Pinnacle/BOL/Circa model will still be king in 10 years. Pure exchange model is inferior from a business standpoint.

 

[redrightred]

Trading can and probably will go fully automated with AI over that time period. Otherwise, some iteration of the current Pinnacle/BOL/Circa model will still be king in 10 years. Pure exchange model is inferior from a business standpoint.

It is inferior until you go broke. It does not matter how they adjust the line. The fact that they have to make the line will be the end of them.

 

[btcfan]

No, and you can see they are starting to have problems. Their problems are just now starting.

This is not going to happen in six months. It will take a decade or two to play out.

Your theory really depends on just how much the winning player side increases. I think you are overestimating how much that will happen. Maybe more sharps getting more accounts...but I don't see a huge shift. People in general don't want to put in the effort grinding out volume and slowly showing steady bankroll growth. Why do you think SGPs and the lottery tickets they sell are big now? A $500 2% +EV bet isn't as sexy having a $10 expected ROI as a 8 gamer that turns $50 into $20K, with a 50%+ hold. Of course, BM/BOL/Pinny are not getting the same volume of those people that FanKings365 are. And...maybe that becomes the issue.

I would agree though the "smarter" AI/computer side of things gets (ala StockFish) at managing this, could eventually lead to that exchange only P2P biz, but that still hinges on the sharp side swinging to the majority, which I just don't see any time soon. Of course, people that are sharp tend to be fairly quiet about it, outside of discussions with each other, so maybe I am underestimating it. Just got back from Vegas and I saw nothing but sheep in the books I was at. Wow...some really bad bets! But, they are not playing at these sharp offshore shops.

 

[sportsbettor5]

but that still hinges on the sharp side swinging to the majority, which I just don't see any time soon.

I guess his idea is that players will self-sort. 90%+ offshore players will be sharp, large onshore majority will be square. From there, exchanges will defeat the offshore sharp books.

I'd like to hear his explanation of how exchanges will overcome the age-old liquidity problem.

 

[redrightred]

Your theory really depends on just how much the winning player side increases. I think you are overestimating how much that will happen. Maybe more sharps getting more accounts...but I don't see a huge shift. People in general don't want to put in the effort grinding out volume and slowly showing steady bankroll growth. Why do you think SGPs and the lottery tickets they sell are big now? A $500 2% +EV bet isn't as sexy having a $10 expected ROI as a 8 gamer that turns $50 into $20K, with a 50%+ hold. Of course, BM/BOL/Pinny are not getting the same volume of those people that FanKings365 are. And...maybe that becomes the issue.

I would agree though the "smarter" AI/computer side of things gets (ala StockFish) at managing this, could eventually lead to that exchange only P2P biz, but that still hinges on the sharp side swinging to the majority, which I just don't see any time soon. Of course, people that are sharp tend to be fairly quiet about it, outside of discussions with each other, so maybe I am underestimating it. Just got back from Vegas and I saw nothing but sheep in the books I was at. Wow...some really bad bets! But, they are not playing at these sharp offshore shops.

99% of winning sports bettors are scamming the books. As you go to sharp books, all of those bettors will get wiped out. That leaves you with a small percentage of sharps that are big bettors and going to take aim at the remaining sharp books. Bonuses are eliminated. Average bettors are wiped out. The model ceases to function. Sports betting is low percentage right now under the best of times.

 

[redrightred]

I guess his idea is that players will self-sort. 90%+ offshore players will be sharp, large onshore majority will be square. From there, exchanges will defeat the offshore sharp books.

I'd like to hear his explanation of how exchanges will overcome the age-old liquidity problem.

There are not going to be any exchanges because they are too expensive. But the only way to have a betting platform that works is to have bettors match with another. The book has to be taken out of the equation. Then when you have an exchange, the Pinnacles and Bookmakers can offer up lines to the public and if they go bust, it is no big deal. You still have people that can match with themselves.

 

[milwaukee mike]

You said before that they had paid people so it was a way too much to call them a stiff. Now you say they are stealing your money.

i would love to see when and where i posted something like that. i checked all my posts in this thread and i didn't say anything like that

 

[milwaukee mike]

ok i found it, my apologies... i WAS comfortable with phx group, also with jazz until recently... times are awful.

"that's not fair... his post is correct from my perspective. who have they stiffed? i feel comfortable playing there. not gonna keep a huge balance, but the only places i do that are bol/bookmaker"

 

[mrmcnasty]

next person to message in this thread gets 7 years of bad beats

(Maybe this will end it)