PGA: 3M Open (7.27-7.30) - Blaine, MN.

[pete0]

Nicolai Hojgaard Top 20 Finish +265 at BOL
J.T. Poston Top 20 finish +210 at BOL
Gary Woodland Top 20 Finish +180 at DK

Nicolai Hojgaard Top 30 Finish +150 at DK
J.T. Poston Top 30 Finish +120 at DK
Gary Woodland Top 30 Finish +105 at DK

DK could offer slightly better odds on those top 30 finishes, I will admit, but I have a feeling they got got once or twice, lol. Just the same, those odds I picked up will work here.

This is the card I've put together.

Good Luck.

Thanks for the detailed analysis KVB

Did u skip on Sepp top 10 finish btw?

 

[Pimike]

Why you play these top 10 top 20?

you get pushes so never get real odds even if you hit.

I see no value. I’ve lost on a top 5 half my risk with these Dead HeTa Rules.

Seems like a no win bet.

 

[jjgold]

Those top 5, 10, etc terrible odds and high risk with golf

 

[KVB]

Why you play these top 10 top 20?

you get pushes so never get real odds even if you hit.

I see no value. I’ve lost on a top 5 half my risk with these Dead HeTa Rules.

Seems like a no win bet.

Those top 5, 10, etc terrible odds and high risk with golf

Yeah Poston and Woodland pushing the limit there but Nicolai is a good number.

For this particular strategy the shitty dead heat rules are being considered, still see value in there. This is big picture, mulit tourney thinking here.

But Gold you're not wrong, some of these odds can be shitty, hence the push to create something that can beat them, vig included.

DK and BetMGM a big ripoff for the most part in that respect. BOL a bit more courageous in what they offer. They are just plain sharper and they know it.

Like I said, I think DK got burned once or twice in a vulnerable market and now short the bettor as a strategy.

 

[KVB]

Thanks for the detailed analysis KVB

Did u skip on Sepp top 10 finish btw?

Yeah, it might be a winning bet, same with Fianu, Matsuyama and even Tom Hoge, but the value just wasn't there.

It was a late night. Haven't forgot about you pete, was hoping for some moneyline examples in mlb to get that other discussion about markets going.

Hope you are doing well. I'm getting back into the groove.

 

[JDS]

Let me get right to it, with some generalities. There is a combination of current course, similar courses (which is a bit weak in this instance) recent history in the geographical area for golfers, and then of course recent performance relative to the field across strokes gained and other stats going back 8 tournaments to establish that form.

Probably going to be some low scores in this tournament, with a lot of birdies, and that fact is also being factored in, as this course will be wide off the tee, relatively speaking, at all 25 yard intervals, starting from 275 all the way to 350 yards off the tee with bentgrass down the fairway, bluegrass with fescue on a 4" rough, and bentgrass greens with a Tourney Stimp of 12. There is water in play on 15 of the 18 holes, acting as defense on many of those holes

Some to all of these factors are taken into account for golfers, but it wasn't as relevant for this tournament. Often we compare these course stats to similar course and track the difference in courses through the season but our comparisons here, as a TPC course aren't as strong. This course was built for amateurs, though has gotten slightly tougher over the recent years, when it comes different deviations of score stats.

Another thing to note is that the elevation is about 900 and this does affect the golf shot, a bit. There is likely to be a required adjustment, albeit the smallest one of it's kind for elevation adjustments, as small as 2% of the length, but can matter at times. JT Poston and Woodland should be able to trust the math at this lower, but still at, elevation, but I don't know about Hojgaard.

I have picked up a series of bets with those golfers. Here are what I found as the best probabilites against what is now likely a "mature" market...

Nicolai Hojgaard Top 20 Finish +265 at BOL
J.T. Poston Top 20 finish +210 at BOL
Gary Woodland Top 20 Finish +180 at DK

Nicolai Hojgaard Top 30 Finish +150 at DK
J.T. Poston Top 30 Finish +120 at DK
Gary Woodland Top 30 Finish +105 at DK

DK could offer slightly better odds on those top 30 finishes, I will admit, but I have a feeling they got got once or twice, lol. Just the same, those odds I picked up will work here.

This is the card I've put together.

Good Luck.

Good luck & great reading material for this tourney, also nice happy ending with the GIF, KVB knows how to bring the good content

 

[KVB]

Probably going to be a lot of birdies this week. I need to see some odds on my desk.

I might have some good info by Tuesday, maybe I come back with a little more useful info.

I would expect the winner to break -15 this week, with that first round possibly having a -7 to -9 leader, but I don't even have course specifics yet.

 

[JDS]

Pretty much right in the number with this one nice early forecast.

 

[KVB]

Why you play these top 10 top 20?

you get pushes so never get real odds even if you hit.

I see no value. I’ve lost on a top 5 half my risk with these Dead HeTa Rules.

Seems like a no win bet.

I forgot to mention another thing about this.

If you are venturing into dead heat rule territory, make sure it's a house where they odds are cut, not the stake. I have a mix above. The math usually works out whereby cutting the odds

Also, BetMGM has less odds than most on the same bets. BetMGM is unique here and sometimes worth the math conversion, like with plays I have Gary Woodland at +175, instead of +180.

For Nojgaard, I have a DK line at +260, a BOL line at +265 and BetMGM at +188.
For Poston, I have DK +210, a BOL +210, and BetMGM at +180.

For DK, the odds are reduced for dead heat calculation, for BOL, the stake is reduced.

But for BetMGM, all ties pay full!!!!!

So there are things to consider when betting these, and this is actually the first year I've ever bet a Top 30, it's usually 10 and 20.

A big tie can go bad for the bet, and there can be bigger ties at the 30 and 20 than at the 10 and 5, but my work here attempted to account for that as I sought "better than" rather than "better than or equal to" in the assessment.

If we fall outside the Top 20, we have "cushion" in the twenties before it goes bad at 30.

 

[jjgold]

One bad round, you could really not even come into top 20 todays game

 

[Pimike]

I forgot to mention another thing about this.

If you are venturing into dead heat rule territory, make sure it's a house where they odds are cut, not the stake. I have a mix above. The math usually works out whereby cutting the odds

Also, BetMGM has less odds than most on the same bets. BetMGM is unique here and sometimes worth the math conversion, like with plays I have Gary Woodland at +175, instead of +180.

For Nojgaard, I have a DK line at +260, a BOL line at +265 and BetMGM at +188.
For Poston, I have DK +210, a BOL +210, and BetMGM at +180.

For DK, the odds are reduced for dead heat calculation, for BOL, the stake is reduced.

But for BetMGM, all ties pay full!!!!!

So there are things to consider when betting these, and this is actually the first year I've ever bet a Top 30, it's usually 10 and 20.

A big tie can go bad for the bet, and there can be bigger ties at the 30 and 20 than at the 10 and 5, but my work here attempted to account for that as I sought "better than" rather than "better than or equal to" in the assessment.

If we fall outside the Top 20, we have "cushion" in the twenties before it goes bad at 30.

Thanks
Most those books Howe we not available to me

 

[Rasta Nate]

Taking a shot at Doc Redman 100 to 1

 

[JDS]

These two puppies brewing well so far for KVB’er.

J.T. Poston Top 20 finish +210 at BOL

J.T. Poston Top 30 Finish +120 at DK

 

[KVB]

Almost suggested a tourney winner on Poston, among a couple of others, that was a position that could be sold back Sunday, perhaps.

Fuk

Need Hojgaard to make this cut, a late birdie has him there so unless the cut line moves I think he's in. Let's just get him to moving day and maybe there's a chance.

Gary Woodland can eat a big fat dikk.

 

[Rasta Nate]

Fukin Doc Redman is crap. Was hoping he would at least make it interesting today

 

[Rasta Nate]

Oh man never touching Doc again.i added him last minute. I went against my rule to never pick more than three in a parlay. I hit all the other ones.frickin Doc!!

 

[Pimike]

Who we got tomorrow, Grillo?

 

[jjgold]

Anyone taking a shot with Tony Finau

 

[Pimike]

Anyone taking a shot with Tony Finau

Grillo h2h +120

 

[Rasta Nate]

Hold on.let me catch vibe and I'll be back