Patriots -4.5 over Denver AFC Championship Game 🏈PRE/IN GAME DISCUSSION THREAD*🏈

[KingKolzig]

Den +225 bookmaker

Great line

 

[renegade]

Be careful with NE. Sean Payton is very good schematically. He is not going to let Stidham get out of control. I expect numerous play action short passes and lots of short roll out dump offs. Like a teddy bridgewater type game plan.

 

[keithrichard]

While I will not be betting on the Broncos this week I can see this being a close probably low scoring affair if Payton gets his way. I do think Patriots win this but would only consider the ML here. Most likely I will be just looking at props though.

 

[BMR Genie]

@BigJay, I hope you don't mind me updating your thread and using this as our main discussion thread, same with the other match thread. Thanks

 

[BigJay]

@BigJay, I hope you don't mind me updating your thread and using this as our main discussion thread, same with the other match thread. Thanks

Sounds good.

Looks like the line moved up to -5.5 initially on New England earlier in the week.

Now it’s -5 at Bookmaker. The ML on Denver has also gone down from +225 to +203.

 

[BMR Genie]

Sounds good.

Looks like the line moved up to -5.5 initially on New England earlier in the week.

Now it’s -5 at Bookmaker. The ML on Denver has also gone down from +225 to +203.

Any reason for the line change? Or simply just heavy money on Patriots?

 

[BigJay]

Any reason for the line change? Or simply just heavy money on Patriots?

Probably the initial reaction to the Nix injury and folks giving the Broncos little chance.

Now they they’ve had time to absorb the news more people are taking the Broncos and the points at home despite the fact they have to start a backup quarterback.

 

[BMR Genie]

"The Patriots have never won a playoff game in Denver. The Broncos are 4-0 against New England in the postseason at home, with three of those wins coming when Tom Brady was the opposing quarterback. Denver beat the Patriots in the playoffs in 1987, 2006, 2014, and 2016."

 

[keithrichard]

Stidham is the unknown factor. He may come in and throw a few interceptions right off or play the game of his life. If it was in New England I think they win easily. At Denver might be another story.

 

[Tanko]

Stidham is the unknown factor. He may come in and throw a few interceptions right off or play the game of his life. If it was in New England I think they win easily. At Denver might be another story.

That's the crux of the situation. Stidham.... How will he play? I'm guessing below average... At least not up to Nix's level so that means we lean hard on Pats.

 

[BigJay]

Stidham is the unknown factor.

 

[BigJay]

That's the crux of the situation. Stidham.... How will he play? I'm guessing below average... At least not up to Nix's level so that means we lean hard on Pats.

I get a feeling Sean Peyton, as good a coach is he is, will have a great game plan for what he feels Stidham’s capabilities are.

Whether or not he can execute it is the question.

 

[BigJay]

Peyton kind of old school obviously where the back up never plays.

He’s probably wishing he’d let him play every once in awhile now.

 

[jamesy2422]

I am surprised the line hasn't gone more towards the Pats. That means there are respected people taking the Broncos.

 

[KingKolzig]

I am surprised the line hasn't gone more towards the Pats. That means there are respected people taking the Broncos.

Broncos fall behind then stidham has to chuck. Id never bet the broncos here

 

[BMR Genie]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2014064990655766544

 

[BMR Genie]

BMR Analysis


*Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson (Anytime Touchdown +125) & Over 53.5 Rushing Yards -110) at BetOnline

*Rams’ Colby Parkinson (Anytime Touchdown +380 / Over 2.5 receptions -105) at Bovada

 

[BMR Genie]

BMR Prediction:

New England Patriots: 26
Denver Broncos: 19

 

[pieceofpi]

Be careful with NE. Sean Payton is very good schematically. He is not going to let Stidham get out of control. I expect numerous play action short passes and lots of short roll out dump offs. Like a teddy bridgewater type game plan.

A lot of rush attempts, too?

 

[pieceofpi]

Tease the game with Denver and Seattle. I love Denver plus the points in a tease

Denver is an ok teaser leg. But SEATTLE?...