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Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

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Fantasy football: Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans among players who will score fewer TDs in 2022​

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Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.

The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence.

There were 79 names listed in those six columns, and in 72 cases the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 91.1%. Five exceptions came during the historically offensive 2018 and 2020 seasons (that includes Taysom Hill, who had four of his nine scores during his four unexpected starts at QB) and, despite the league playing an extra game last season, our only 2021 misses were Ryan Tannehill (matched his 2020 total) and Mike Evans (by one TD). Even if we cross off players who barely saw the field (David Johnson, Antonio Brown, Christian McCaffrey), the hit rate remains extremely strong.

This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply cannot sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent. Scoring is simply more about opportunity.

You want proof? Good, I have it.

During the 2010 to '20 seasons, there were 212 instances in which a player totaled 10 or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those players, a whopping 179 (84.4%) scored fewer touchdowns the next season and the average change was a decrease of 5.0. Of the 46 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 44 (95.7%) scored fewer times the next season (average dip of 8.3). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018) and Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014).

Last season, Jonathan Taylor (20), Austin Ekeler (20), James Conner (18), Joe Mixon (16), Cooper Kupp (16), Damien Harris (15), Deebo Samuel (14) and Mike Evans (14) made up the list of players who reached 14 offensive TDs.

Every player who scored at least 14 TDs in 2020 found the end zone less often in 2021: Alvin Kamara (21 to 9), Davante Adams (18 to 11), Tyreek Hill (17 to 9), Derrick Henry (17 to 10), Dalvin Cook (17 to 6) and Adam Thielen (14 to 10). Several were partially due to injury, but on the other hand, they also had an extra game added to the schedule.

As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.

A careful examination of each of the below player's 2021 usage tells us that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.

Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score more touchdowns this season.

Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
2021 TDs: 20; 2022 projected TDs: 12


From 2010 to '20, 29 players scored at least 15 TDs in a single season. All but one (Todd Gurley 2017-18) scored fewer TDs the following season. Ekeler found the end zone 20 times in 2021, which tied Jonathan Taylor for most in the league. As if that's not enough of a concern, the 8.9 gap between Ekeler's TD total and expected TD total based on usage (11.1) was largest in the league. He entered 2021 having scored on five of 19 career carries within 6 yards of the end zone. He was 10 of 17 in the category last season. Ekeler will still score plenty if he maintains a big goal line role (12 carries inside the 5 last season), but history suggests he'll score about half as often.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
2021 TDs: 18; 2022 projected TDs: 12


Conner ranked 17th in carries and 36th in targets among RBs last season, but heavy goal line work allowed him a top-five fantasy campaign. Conner registered 12 carries from opponent's 1-yard line, which was three more than any other player. He finished no lower than third among RBs in TDs (18), expected TDs (11.8) and carries inside the 5 (16). Conner has always been effective at the goal line, having scored on 19 of 28 career carries (68%) from the 1-yard line, but reaching those goal line usage numbers again will be a challenge. Expect a dip.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
2021 TDs: 16; 2022 projected TDs: 10


Kupp had one of the most-productive seasons in NFL history last season, pacing the league in targets, receptions, receiving yards, TDs and, of course, fantasy points. Kupp was also tops at wide receiver in expected TDs (11.6) and fifth in end zone targets (13). History suggests that he's a near lock for a step back (perhaps a big one), and that's sure to impact him in the TD department. Kupp entered 2021 with 24 touchdowns (17.6 expected) in four seasons, though his massive 2021 usage and extraordinary connection with Matthew Stafford suggests we can still expect double digits.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
2021 TDs: 14; 2022 projected TDs: 9


Samuel tied for seventh in touchdowns, but was 55th in expected TDs last season. Super-reliant on explosive plays, Samuel totaled three end zone targets (believe it or not, he caught none of them) and one carry inside the opponent's 5-yard line. Samuel's elite playmaking ability (6.2 yards per carry and WR-best 9.7 RAC since he was drafted) will help him find the end zone at a decent clip, but three seasons of limited goal line work suggests we should expect some regression.

Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots
2021 TDs: 15; 2022 projected TDs: 10


Harris ranked 23rd in touches (220) and 11th in expected TDs (9.2), but fifth in TDs among RBs last season. Of the 15 players with at least five carries from the opponent's 1-yard line last season, Harris was the only one to score on 100% of his attempts. Impressive? Sure. Sustainable? No. Consider that the other 14 players combined to score on 58% of their attempts. We also know Harris is unlikely to make up for a TD dip with his passing-game contributions, as zero of his 29 career targets have come while inside the 14-yard line.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
2021 TDs: 20; 2022 projected TDs: 15


Taylor tied for the league lead with 20 TDs last season, and history tells us to expect a drop -- perhaps a substantial one -- in 2022. However, Taylor also paced the league in carries (332), carries inside the 5-yard line (26), scrimmage yards (2,171) and expected touchdowns (15.5), so it's reasonable to still expect a high number of scores. Incredibly, Taylor scored 20 times despite not seeing a single target inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Despite a probable dip, Taylor remains the favorite to pace the league in rushing TDs.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2021 TDs: 14; 2022 projected TDs: 9


Evans caught a career-high 13 TDs in 2020 -- his first with Tom Brady -- and then proceeded to increase that number to 14 last season. Evans easily cleared his expected totals during the two campaigns, but he's always been busy near the goal line, having finished top 10 in end zone targets in all eight NFL seasons. The big change has been his conversion rate. During the 2015-19 seasons, Evans caught 27 of 86 end zone targets (31.4%), which is just slightly below a league-average conversion rate. During two seasons with Brady, Evans has caught an absurd 17 of 25 (68%). Evans' heavy goal line usage can't be ignored, but considering only seven players in NFL history have scored 13-plus TDs in three different seasons, we should anticipate a step back this season.

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
2021 TDs: 16; 2022 projected TDs: 13


Mixon posted career-best marks in touches (334), TDs (16) and expected TDs (12.0) last season, but heavy usage -- including goal line work -- is nothing new. He ranked no lower than eighth among backs in touches, expected TDs and carries inside the 5 in both 2018 and '19, though he totaled 17 scores during the span. Execution was a major reason for the 2021 surge, as after not scoring on any of five carries within 5 yards of the goal line in 2020, Mixon scored on seven of 13 carries within 2 yards of the goal line last season. Expect a slight TD dip in 2022.

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
2021 TDs: 10; 2022 projected TDs: 7


I'm playing with fire here, as Thielen has consistently defied the odds in the TD department, but his pace has to slow down, right? Thielen has scored 39 TDs over the last four seasons, beating his expected total during all four campaigns. He's finished no lower than fourth in TD rate each of the last three seasons. Consider, though, that 11 WRs scored at least nine TDs last season and Thielen was the only one under nine end zone targets (he had eight). Thielen's recent TD success has been built on an absurd 68% (19 of 28) conversion rate on those end zone targets, which nearly doubles the expected rate. Expect a step back in the scoring department for the 32-year-old.

Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills
2021 TDs: 9; 2022 projected TDs: 6


Knox led all tight ends in touchdowns (nine) and TD rate (12.3%) last season. Though he was busy near the goal line (he ranked fourth with nine end zone targets), Knox was still well above his expected TD total (6.7) and ranked 20th at the position in total targets (73). Knox will continue to benefit from Buffalo's high-scoring offense, but he'll need more usage in order to offset a dip in touchdowns and that seems unlikely with O.J. Howard added to the fold.

Others: WR DK Metcalf (Seahawks), WR Tyler Lockett (Seahawks), WR Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals), WR K.J. Osborn (Vikings), RB Cordarrelle Patterson (Falcons), WR Cedrick Wilson Jr (Dolphins), TE Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), RB Melvin Gordon III (Broncos).
 

Wagerallsports

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Fantasy football: Dalvin Cook, Courtland Sutton among players who will score more TDs in 2022​

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Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.

From the 2010 to '20 seasons, there were 133 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 133 cases, 96 (or 72%) scored more touchdowns the next season.

Focusing in on the 40 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 32 (or 80%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 15 who scored either zero or one touchdown, 12 (or 80%) found the end zone more often the next year. Slot receivers Jason Avant (2010-11 and 2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the three exceptions.

Last season, 24 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches, with notables under three scores including Kyle Pitts, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton, Jakobi Meyers, Mike Gesicki and Darren Waller.

We see similar results if we run this test on running backs in the same time span. There are 49 instances in which a back failed to score seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing at least 200 again the next season. Of those 49 cases, 39 (or 80%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first season, but each scored at least six times the next season. The average second-year touchdown total was 8.5!

In 2021, Saquon Barkley (4 TDs, 203 touches), Sony Michel (5 TDs, 229 touches), Dalvin Cook (6 TDs, 283 touches) and Elijah Mitchell (6 TDs, 226 touches) were the only backs with fewer than seven scores on 200-plus touches.

Of the players on that list one year ago, Frank Gore didn't play in 2021, Clyde Edwards-Helaire improved from 5 to 6 TDs despite missing seven games and James Conner jumped from 6 to 18 TDs.

If you skipped all that, or just tuned out while scanning over the math, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back -- often in a big way -- when they post an unusually low touchdown number and see similar playing time the following season.

In this piece, I'll be referencing expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.

A careful examination of each of the below player's 2021 usage tells us that we should expect a boost in scoring production this season.

Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score fewer touchdowns this season.

Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
2021 TDs: 1; 2022 projected TDs: 5


Every offseason, a poster boy for touchdown regression to the mean emerges. This year, Pitts is that guy. Fifty NFL players produced at least 700 receiving yards last season. 49 of them found the end zone at least twice. The exception, of course, was Pitts, who scored once despite ranking 24th in the league with 1,026 yards as a 20-year-old rookie. Pitts ranked 11th among tight ends in expected TDs (5.1) and was top five in both targets and yardage in what was one of the greatest rookie seasons ever by a tight end. Even with Atlanta's QB concerns, Pitts' TDs will rebound in a big way this season.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
2021 TDs: 6; 2022 projected TDs: 11


After scoring 13 and 17 touchdowns during the 2019 and '20 seasons, respectively, Cook saw his TD total dive to six in 2021. That's despite ranking top 10 in carries inside the 5-yard line (12) for the third straight season. Cook always misses games (at least two in all five pro seasons) and isn't targeted near the goal line much (one target inside the 10 over the last three seasons), but his overall usage hasn't changed. In fact, despite missing four games last season, he finished seventh in touches and sixth in yardage among backs. Expect him to get back on track in the TD department.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 8


Sutton's bizarre 2021 season saw him rank 14th among wide receivers in snaps (882), but 78th in touchdowns (two). He didn't see a ton of work near the goal line (five end zone targets, none of which were caught), but his role as a vertical target (13th at WR in air yards) led to an expected TD total (5.1) of more than double his actual output. Sutton is 6-foot-3 and has a history of heavy use near the goal line, as his 23 end zone targets during the 2019-20 seasons ranked sixth in the league. He's a candidate for a boost in TDs regardless, but the huge QB upgrade to Russell Wilson only adds to his upside.

Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 5


After scoring nine touchdowns in 2020 (third most among TEs), Waller plummeted to two scores last season. Sure, he played five fewer games, but his 5.2 expected TD total suggests he should've more than doubled his output. The main culprit was conversions while inside the confines of the end zone. Waller caught seven of nine end zone targets in 2020, but only one of eight last season. Waller's targets may drop with Davante Adams in the mix this season, but his TDs are a strong bet to rise.

Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 5


Every year, there is a player who overcorrects in the TD department. Claypool headlines that list this season. After scoring 11 touchdowns on 72 touches as a rookie in 2020, Claypool plummeted to two scores on 73 touches in 2021. He actually saw more end zone targets in his second season, but he had one of the league's worst conversion rates (one TD on eight targets). Interestingly, Claypool's expected TD rates were relatively close during the two seasons (7.6 in 2020, 6.1 in 2021), but he simply overachieved one year and underachieved the next. Even in an offense that may struggle this season, Claypool is a good bet for a boost in scoring.

Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
2021 TDs: 0; 2022 projected TDs: 6


Check out this wild stat from last season: The Eagles led the NFL in rushing touchdowns (25), but their lead back (Sanders) failed to score a single TD. Seriously. Sure, Sanders missed five games, but he still touched the ball 163 times and had an expected TD total of 4.5. In fact, Sanders holds the unfortunate distinction of having registered the most touches without scoring at least once. Sure, it's easy to predict that a player who didn't score a single TD will find the end zone more often, but the fact is, Sanders should've had a lot more TDs last season. That's especially the case after he found the end zone 12 times (12.3 expected) during his first two NFL seasons. He's a strong rebound candidate in the Eagles' run-heavy scheme.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 4


Jackson led all QBs in rushing attempts during each of his first three NFL seasons, scoring at least five TDs in all three campaigns. Despite racking up 133 carries (including a career-high six inside the 5-yard line) last season, Jackson ran for only two scores. He ranked third among QBs in expected TDs (5.3) and carries inside the 5, but 13 passers found the end zone more often with their legs. Jackson missed five games last season, but still scrambled a career-high 51 times. Expect more rushing TDs in 2022.

Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
2021 TDs: 0; 2022 projected TDs: 4


Seventy-one tight ends caught at least one TD last season. Kmet was not one of them, despite ranking 14th at the position in both expected TDs (4.5) and end zone targets (six). Of the 61 players who caught at least 55 passes, only Kmet (60 receptions) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (63) failed to score a touchdown. Kmet's lack of scoring was extremely fluky, and a rebound can be expected.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 4


This isn't a "bold predictions" article, but projecting Meyers for more touchdowns probably seems like it belongs in that category. New England's slot man has had brutal TD luck, having scored on two of 168 career receptions (247 targets). Every other wide receiver in league history with at least 104 receptions has caught more than two TDs. Meyers was one of 18 players to catch 83-plus balls last season and the other 17 found the end zone at least four times. The good news is that Meyers has already shown signs of regression to the mean, as after not catching a TD in his first 38 NFL games, he's done so in two of his last eight. Meyers may never be a top TD scorer, but his heavy usage (at least 23% target share the last two seasons) suggests better days are ahead.

Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 5



Gesicki was a busy man near the goal line during the 2019 and '20 seasons. He ranked no lower than fifth among tight ends in end zone targets and no lower than 10th in touchdowns in both campaigns. Despite posting career-high marks in targets (110), receptions (73) and yardage (780) in 2021, Gesicki plummeted to four end zone targets (24th at TE) and two TDs (34th). The dip in usage is concerning, especially with Tyreek Hill now in the fold, but Gesicki's TD total was still about half of his expected total (3.9) and he'll certainly maintain a significant offensive role after receiving the franchise tag.

Others: WR Allen Robinson II (Rams), WR Kenny Golladay (Giants), WR Marvin Jones Jr. (Jaguars), WR Mecole Hardman (Chiefs), WR Jerry Jeudy (Broncos), WR Kadarius Toney (Giants), RB Chase Edmonds (Dolphins), QB Dak Prescott (Cowboys), RB Saquon Barkley (Giants).
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

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Fantasy football 'Do Not Draft' list: Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley are being drafted too high​

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Even though half of the starting running backs from the NFC East still finished among the top 10 volume scorers in fantasy football last season, fantasy managers near and far had plenty to complain about it when it came to this group of players. So much more was expected from Saquon Barkley (New York Giants), Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys), Antonio Gibson (Washington Commanders) and Miles Sanders (Philadelphia Eagles), and expectations were clearly not met, pretty much across the board.

Every summer when I write the annual fantasy football "Do Not Draft" list, sure to be misinterpreted by most and based mainly on comparing results from ESPN average live drafts to my own rankings and statistical expectations, I do take a look at the myriad teams I've already drafted to see trends. What I haven't been seeing on 2022 teams are shares of the NFC East running backs, and there's good reason for this. Their individual and collective value feels, well, misinterpreted. Warning signs are everywhere!

Barkley was arguably a bigger fantasy bust last season than Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey because his disheartening underachieving was spaced out over four months and 13 games. Sure, Barkley was awesome as a rookie in 2018 and very good as a follow-up. Then he blew out his knee. Badly. Even acknowledging the dysfunctional mess that was last season's Giants, from coaching to scheme to perhaps especially quarterback, Barkley did not run well, averaging 3.7 YPC, and 32 other running backs averaged more PPR points per game. Barkley lacked speed and elusiveness. Perhaps it all gloriously comes back and he dominates as a receiver from the backfield for four months, but it is far too risky to pay a third-round price to find out. Pass.

Perhaps things don't appear so bad for Elliott, since only six other running backs scored more PPR points, though 16 averaged more points per game. The Cowboys have noticed that years of physical pounding has cost him valuable efficiency. The younger, game-breaking Tony Pollard is ready to emerge as a star. Elliott squeaked past 1,000 rushing yards and scored 12 touchdowns, owing the stats mostly to opportunity, but Pollard cut into his workload and averaged 5.5 YPC. He's the future. As with Barkley, Elliott is but a shadow of the big-play threat from years ago, relying more on goal-line carries and volume, and he can't blame his quarterback and offensive line. Fantasy managers still view Elliott as a sure thing as he goes in Round 4, while the underrated Pollard goes seven rounds later! Even I would invest in Elliott over Pollard, but not at these ADP figures. Only one of them is a value pick.

Gibson's top-10 PPR finish among running backs was also about volume, and that volume seems to be getting further compromised. Gibson averaged 4.7 YPC as a rookie. That mark fell to 4.0 YPC last season, and Gibson was also quite inefficient on his myriad goal-line attempts, scoring touchdowns on only 15% of them, one of the poorest marks in the league. The Commanders selected rookie Brian Robinson from Alabama for a reason. He's bigger and wider than Gibson. A healthy J.D. McKissic would handle third-down work and catch passes. Does it feel like every NFC East starting running back has already has his best season? Gibson rushed for more than 70 yards in only five of 16 games last season. He may find it difficult to see enough workload to get to that number in 2022, making him an unreliable RB2 choice and sixth-round selection.

It's almost unfathomable the talented Sanders could go an entire season (well, 12 games) and score nary a touchdown, and do so for one of the best rushing offenses in the league. But it happened. The Eagles boast a running quarterback in Jalen Hurts, and as with Josh Allen and others from the past (such as Cam Newton), he was his own goal-line option. Hurts is bigger than Sanders. Meanwhile, Kenneth Gainwell is a superior receiver out of the backfield and perhaps the team's future three-down starter, Boston Scott is still a factor and Sanders is without a contract after this season. Any proof that a player is extra motivated and produces greater statistics in a contract seasons is ... dubious, to the say the least. The Eagles appear in no hurry to keep Sanders around long term, as he has missed nine games the past two seasons due to various injuries and frustrated the organization with fumbles and dropped passes. It's difficult to make a case for him as a RB2, but that's how some are viewing him.

And there you go. The NFC East boasts many terrific fantasy options, with two top-10 quarterbacks, exciting, young wide receivers and even two of the better statistical tight ends in the sport, but at running back, there are potential dangers based on generous expectations from past performance. Investing a few rounds later in each case is more palatable, but not at current ADP. You've been warned, eager fantasy managers.

Moving on, here are other players I continue to avoid in drafts. As always, though, it hardly means I would do so if they would simply slip a few rounds. Drafts are all about value.

Quarterback envy​

For ESPN standard leagues, which require one quarterback and many flex-eligible players to get through a season, there is little upside to selecting a passer early. There is always significant QB depth. Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen is going in the top 20 of ESPN ADP. Even if Allen duplicates his amazing 2021 campaign, Rounds 2 or 3 are underwhelming value for a quarterback when four of the top 5 PPR scorers a season ago were quarterbacks, and nine of 15. It's nothing against Allen, but the opportunity cost of missing on a top running back and wide receiver, when we need so many to get through a season, is simply too great.

I actually think choosing the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes in Rounds 3 or 4 is just as risky, if not more so. Mahomes is great, but since his monster 2018 campaign, he has not finished among the top 3 quarterbacks in fantasy in any of the past three seasons. Everyone seems to be penalizing Aaron Rodgers in the rankings for losing WR Davante Adams, but not Mahomes for losing Tyreek Hill? Both Tom Brady and Kyler Murray averaged more fantasy per game than Mahomes and are going four or five rounds later in drafts. There is depth at QB. Wait for it.

Other QBs to fade based on ADP: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals; Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans; Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders.

Touchdown realism​

Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner scored 18 touchdowns last season, 15 on the ground, after scoring 13 touchdowns his final two seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was surely a memorable season, but the touchdown rate is unsustainable. Conner is not on the same level as Jonathan Taylor. Conner is 27, averaged 3.7 YPC last season and is a modest factor in the passing game, finished 32nd in yards from scrimmage and has missed multiple games each of his five NFL seasons. Fantasy managers seem a bit too eager to secure him in Round 3.

Meanwhile, things seem no less improbable for Atlanta Falcons surprise Cordarrelle Patterson. One can wait past Round 6 to get him, but expecting double-digit touchdowns again from a 31-year-old who wants to return kickoffs is dangerous. Patterson, who tied for 28th in rushing attempts last season, with fewer than Mark Ingram, Chuba Hubbard and Myles Gaskin, was mostly a nonfactor statistically in December, averaging totaling fewer than 100 total yards his final four games. The Falcons can and should give rookie Tyler Allgeier significant touches.

Other RBs to fade based on ADP: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens; Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders; Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks.

Catching on somewhere else​

While Adams and Hill moving on to Las Vegas and Miami, respectively, may not significantly impede their fantasy statistics enough to call them risky, things are different for Cleveland Browns newcomer Amari Cooper. Cooper, 28 and joining his third NFL squad, was 30th among wide receivers in PPR points per game, and now he leaves solid Dak Prescott in Dallas to go to a run-first outfit with ordinary Jacoby Brissett starting at quarterback the first six games, at the least. No Browns caught 75 passes or approached 1,000 receiving yards either of the past two seasons, and it wasn't all because of quarterback play. Cooper as your third WR is not a sure thing.

Allen Robinson II joins up with the champion Los Angeles Rams, and everyone points to him finally getting to play with a top-flight NFL quarterback in Matthew Stafford. This is true. It's also true that Robinson, 28, can't possibly expect the bulk of targets he was used to from his Jaguars and early Bears days. Cooper Kupp saw nearly 200 targets, and not because the Rams lacked other options. He's great. Perhaps Robinson returns to health and becomes reborn as he leaves an impossible situation to thrive in Chicago, thanks to a lack of coaching and QB play, but expecting him to sail past 1,000 receiving yards is too optimistic.

Other WRs to fade based on ADP: Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints; DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals; Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals; Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills; any New York Giants.

Finally ... are you kidding?​


We see it every year, and it still makes no sense. There should never be a D/ST going in the first 10 rounds of a standard draft. This season it's the Buffalo Bills in Round 8 of ADP, ahead of useful flex options such as Kansas City Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen and Bills RB Devin Singletary, among myriad others. That doesn't mean you should always save the D/ST for the penultimate round, but Round 8 is silly, even as we acknowledge the Bills may be great defensively. Playing great defense does not automatically translate to big fantasy stats. No D/ST unit averaged 10 PPR points per game last season, and the difference between the top and the middle was negligible. Seven D/ST units are going in the first 13 rounds. Don't do it.

Meanwhile, the only reason a fantasy manager should secure a kicker in the final round is because they make us secure a kicker at all. There has never been a way to predict kicker performance from year to year, and no, looking at top offenses doesn't do it. Chiefs K Harrison Butker finished 12th in fantasy scoring last season. Daniel Carlson of the Raiders led kickers, but he could easily finish outside the top 10 in 2022. Baltimore Ravens K Justin Tucker is going in the 10th round of ADP. He barely outscored Chris Boswell and Greg Joseph, who are barely going in drafts at all this season. Save your kicker for the final round or, if the site permits, don't draft a kicker and pick up anyone just before Week 1.
 

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Wagerallsports

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NFL training camps: Fantasy football tips, nuggets and what I learned at Cardinals, Bills, Lions, Colts, Titans, Bengals, Steelers, Browns stops​

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Neck burns and optimism. That's what NFL training camp is all about. While sunscreen helps with the neck issue, not much is blocking teams from feeling good about their players this time of year. Players are in the best shape of their lives. They want 1,500 yards or double-digit sacks. And coaches and front-office officials hope they get it.

All of that is easy to process when the NFL is a collective 0-0. What's great about a reporter's training camp tour is you can take a team at face value, making observations for the first time about what a roster can be. You talk to players, coaches and general managers in relaxed settings, when there's time to reflect -- and dream.

That's why we hopped on four different planes and drove 1,600 miles in a rental car to bring you the goods. The days of uninspired videoconference interviews due to COVID-19 protocols are over. We even entered an NFL locker room for the first time in two years (thanks, Cincinnati).

So here's a sizable notebook on what I learned at camps for the Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, including how each team is looking in the early going and fantasy tips to know. Let's start in the Valley.


i

Arizona Cardinals

Location: Glendale, Arizona
Date I visited: Wednesday, July 27

Watt's defensive lowdown

J.J. Watt is a three-time Defensive Player of the Year who's now looking to become a one-time champion. If he does enter 2023 free agency, he wants to do so "hopefully after getting a nice, big ring," he says.

Watt figures that process includes him getting into the backfield and disrupting. The Cardinals need to offset the loss of edge rusher Chandler Jones, and Watt -- who is now healthy after a shoulder injury cost him 10 games last year -- believes he'll help. The hiring of former Dolphins defensive coordinator Matt Burke comes with a more aggressive philosophy, too.

"He has a specific vision of how he wants us to play, which I like," Watt said. "It's all about making plays. Can't really do that if you're sitting from behind reading and thinking too much. Defensive line play is all about instincts and playing. We have a chance to be violent."

Arizona's most fascinating experiment on defense is Isaiah Simmons, who will stretch the positional limits in 2022. The depth chart lists him as a linebacker, but I watched Simmons play safety in 11-man, then transition to one-on-one teaching with a defensive backs coach and a pass-rush coach while the rest of the defense watched special teams periods.

"Very athletic guy," Watt said. "We're going to try to maximize him as much as we can. You're drafted in the first round to make plays."


Conner's RB1 outlook

When I caught up with coach Kliff Kingsbury about his offense, one of the first things he mentioned was James Conner's great hands. I had asked him about Conner's one-handed catch off a screen pass on the first day of camp, which is hardly Conner's first one-hander. He used to do it all the time in Pittsburgh.

Conner spent years sharing the workload with the Steelers and fighting injury, leading to a one-year flier contract with Arizona in 2021. He parlayed that into 18 touchdowns, a Pro Bowl berth and a $21 million contract. And it wouldn't shock if Conner greatly eclipsed his output of 37 catches from a season ago -- especially with former backfield mate Chase Edmonds signing in Miami.

"Any time James touches the ball down there you felt good about him having the opportunity to get in [for a touchdown]," Kingsbury said.

Conner just wants one thing, he says: "touches." And he doesn't care how he gets them.


Cardinals fantasy tips and camp intel

  • I spoke to a team source who was still holding out some hope that receiver DeAndre Hopkins' six-game suspension could be knocked down to four games. I checked with the NFLPA, which considers Hopkins' case a closed issue; he has to serve the six games after violating the league's substance abuse policy. Apparently Hopkins believes there may be a sliver of a chance to reverse it, and the team hopes he's right, even if efforts appear futile.
  • Receiver Rondale Moore is expected to assume the Christian Kirk role in the Cardinals' offense, working from the inside out. Last season, Kirk (now with Jacksonville) played many snaps in the slot but also got 23 deep-ball targets. The Cardinals envision Moore, an explosive second-round pick, handling those duties and more, considering his ability to take handoffs.
  • I heard a story that a Cardinals coach playfully told tight end Zach Ertz that he could catch 100 passes this year. There's precedent for it; Ertz had 116 catches with the Eagles in 2018 and averaged 5.1 catches per game for Arizona last season -- which would be 87 catches over a full season. What's clear is Ertz is more comfortable in the Arizona offense in Year 2. His numbers will be robust, though the team likes rookie tight end Trey McBride, too.
  • Don't discount receiver Antoine Wesley's role in the offense. He was heavily involved in the practice session I saw.

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Buffalo Bills

Location: Pittsfield, New York
Date I visited: Saturday, July 30

Allen taking charge

Allen tells me he "absolutely" plans to take more ownership of the Bills' offense in his fifth year. Part of that is his comfort level in the only Bills system he has known since entering the league in 2018. But there's another part, which is crucial: The Bills have seen Allen take more charge at the line of scrimmage over the past two seasons, with more assertiveness in calling protections and checking into different looks.

The Bills know Allen is at his best when he feels like he has figured the game out up front.

"That comes with progress and progression," Allen said. "Going through all these types of scenarios ... just trying to build that trust with the guys as far as communication."

The transition from Brian Daboll to Ken Dorsey at offensive coordinator should be smooth for Allen, who has a good rapport with his former quarterbacks coach.

"We've got a long history. We know each other very well. He knows my likes and my dislikes," Allen said. "When it comes to calling plays, he's got a step ahead. I love the guy. He's fiery."

Added new teammate Von Miller on Allen: "I've been around a lot of great quarterbacks -- Matthew Stafford and Peyton Manning -- and Josh Allen, he's right up there with those guys if he can keep up the same trajectory. The sky's the limit for him."

Miller Time

Bills general manager Brandon Beane was blunt about why he wanted to sign Miller this offseason. The veteran edge rusher signed a six-year deal with Buffalo that includes $51.5 million guaranteed.

"He's someone who brings something you don't have," Beane said.

That's Hall of Fame-level talent at a crucial position along with unique leadership. Beane was high on Miller's impact on Super Bowl winners in Denver and Los Angeles, and he heard stories about Miller's impact on Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald and how he urged him to be a more vocal leader.

"Those guys can say things -- with how they are built and their pedigree -- that maybe others can't," Beane said.

Allen called Miler a "rock star, as smooth as can be" on the practice field, then joked, "The scary thing is I don't think he's trying very hard right now," indicating Miller is pacing himself early in camp.


Bills fantasy tips and camp intel

  • Love this quote from Stefon Diggs in my post-practice talk with him about his place in the receiver pantheon: "I don't pay attention to where I'm at. I kind of let everybody else pick where I'm at. ... I'm 100% confident in who I am and what I can do. I'll let everybody else figure it out. The numbers are going to speak."
  • Gabriel Davis is a safe fantasy play for a few reasons. First, Allen trusts him. Second, he has proved incredibly reliable among Bills coaches and players. And third, he will get one-on-one matchups because of the presence of Diggs. More than one person at Buffalo camp told me that. The Bills are not expecting fireworks from Davis each week, but they expect him to be steady and reliable. His target share should be relatively healthy.
  • The Isaiah McKenzie hype is real -- the Bills love his speed -- but as it stands, Buffalo also plans to use Jamison Crowder quite a bit, thanks to his instincts and feel for the game. We will get a better sense of receiver workload expectations closer to roster cuts.
  • The Bills might be trying to curb their excitement for running back James Cook because of his rookie status, but make no mistake, they are pumped about his ceiling. The reports from Buffalo-area reporters about his quick impact just validate how the team felt going into camp. Maybe Cook follows the plan of his brother, Dalvin Cook, who unseated veteran Latavius Murray as the top back in Minnesota as a rookie, but Buffalo knows its first-year back's best value might be as a pass-catcher. Either way, the rest of the backfield has come to compete. Zack Moss is running with conviction, Devin Singletary remains the most well-rounded back of the group and Duke Johnson impressed the team with his tape last year. Who is the odd man out?
  • I'm told the plan is for cornerback Tre'Davious White to return to practice "sooner than later." There doesn't seem to be much panic out of Buffalo's camp about his ability to return to the lineup. The Bills will likely keep their eye on veteran corners but don't feel the need to overcompensate yet. First-round rookie Kaiir Elam has battled well throughout camp while learning some new techniques. He was mostly a press-man corner at Florida, and the Bills have worked with him on his off-coverage, which takes time to learn. He has been eager to take that challenge and apply it.

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Detroit Lions

Location: Allen Park, Michigan
Date I visited: Monday, Aug. 1

Williams' recovery

Detroit is in zero rush with one of its top 2022 draft picks. General manager Brad Holmes said receiver Jameson Williams -- who's still on the non-football injury list while rehabbing a torn ACL -- will not play Week 1, but the team isn't publicly disclosing a timetable beyond that.

"We're going to be very smart with him," Holmes said. "He's in a good place right now. It's not going to be Week 1."

What gives Detroit peace is its improved depth at receiver. DJ Chark joins a group that was improving at the end of the year, so while Williams is right on schedule, patience is key.

"[Coach] Dan [Campbell] and I felt we were in a position to acquire a player like this and don't need him for Day 1," Holmes said. "It's a long-term thing."

Detroit traded up to No. 12 in April to draft Williams, who joins Chark, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Quintez Cephus and Kalif Raymond as the top wideouts on the depth chart.


Goff's edge

August breeds optimism in NFL camps, but Goff's excitement about his second year in Detroit feels genuine. He raved about new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who Goff says has added "more plays and more detail" to the offense. Goff wanted that, in part because he knows the importance of variety from his time with the Rams.

"If you don't do it the right way, it can be too much and confusing," said Goff of installing more offense. "But when you install it sequentially and in a way that makes sense, it's good for guys. The best offenses I've been on in L.A. with the way Sean [McVay] installs, it's got to be sequential."

In Goff's first year in Detroit, he posted career lows in yards (3,245) and touchdown passes (19), not counting his rookie season, when he was a part-time starter. But he is a two-time Pro Bowler. Is he eager to remind people of that with his 2022 play?

"I'm not out here trying to make sure people know who I am -- if I play well, that will all take care of itself," Goff said. "Last year wasn't our best year or my best year. How do I get better from that and come out here and play well this year, and then let people say what they may."


Lions fantasy tips and camp intel

  • This is about the best endorsement you'll find on St. Brown, via Goff: "I'm looking for him when things break down, and I'm looking for him when we need a play," Goff said. "Right now, he's that guy. ... He can take a sweep to the house. At the same time, he understands defense and coverage, and it's so rare for a young player to have that ability. He keeps asking the right questions and understanding what's going on over there. He's going [up]."
  • The Lions believe wholeheartedly in a 1-2 tailback approach with D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, which might not be what fantasy managers want to hear if they're looking to Swift for a massive workload this season. But keep in mind that Swift has just 265 carries in two years, so he enters a crucial third season completely fresh and healthy. And the Lions know what they have: a guy who's "dangerous in space," as Holmes told me. So Swift might never be a 300-carry guy, but the Lions have big plans for manufacturing looks for him all over the field.
  • Corner Jeff Okudah has no hard restrictions coming off his Achilles injury, though the team continues to monitor his workload. Campbell has made clear that Okudah has work to do to fend off Will Harris for a starting corner job, but there's no sense that Okudah isn't in the plans for the defense. He has been working hard and asking the right questions. At the practice I visited, he spent extensive time with defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant walking through what just happened on the field.

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Indianapolis Colts

Location: Anderson, Indiana
Dates I visited: Tuesday, Aug. 2 and Wednesday, Aug. 3

RB2 and WR1?

The first thing that stood out during my Colts visit was that running back Nyheim Hines will catch a lot of passes in a Matt Ryan-led offense. He was getting the ball a ton in red zone work, and Ryan is highly skilled at working the screen-pass game. Hines was making people miss in small spaces on his way to the end zone, and the Colts are unafraid to play Hines and No. 1 back Jonathan Taylor in the same formations.

General manager Chris Ballard pointed out that Hines -- who had just 40 catches last year -- was in the 60s range when playing with former Colts QBs Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers, so he expects similar or higher output going forward.

"We have to get him involved," Ballard said. "He's a weapon and a playmaker."

Many others at Colts camp agree, and coach Frank Reich said his goal is to keep teams "off balance" with Taylor and Hines playing off each other. Taylor still garners a massive workload, but there's a feeling here that he won't get 332 carries again -- in part because the Colts won't need it, having enough versatility to keep Taylor fresh.

"It's going to be a lot to defend," Taylor said of the 1-2 combo.

Make 'em Paye

For the Colts to make a jump on defense, they will need the best from Kwity Paye, their 2021 first-round pick who wasn't thrilled with his four-sack debut.

Paye says he's not as stressed in Year 2, thinking less and reacting more due to a better understanding of the playbook. He's also past the hamstring injury that affected him at times last year. And his goal for 2022 is clear.

"I definitely want to get double-digit sacks," Paye said. "I feel me getting double-digit sacks will help the team in the pass rush. Last year, I wanted to do that, but I kind of started out slowly and got the injury. I've put a lot of work in this offseason. I can't wait to get out on the field and show people what I've been working on."


Colts fantasy tips and camp intel

  • I visited Colts camp wondering about vertical speed on offense. Do they have enough of it? So I watched second-round rookie Alec Pierce closely, and Indy's offense ran him on a lot of vertical routes. That's not all he ran, of course, but there were enough of them to get my attention. And quite often he had at least a half-step on his defender. In one 7-on-7 session, cornerback Stephon Gilmore tried the veteran jersey grab and held on for about 20 yards after Pierce got a release.
  • Receiver Parris Campbell got most if not all of the first-team reps I saw when the Colts were in three-receiver sets -- which was often. The most common look had Michael Pittman Jr. and Pierce on the outside with Campbell in the slot. The Colts believe Campbell's lack of production (34 catches over 15 games in three seasons) is due mostly to bad injury luck. "Even though he's been injured, he's been around -- he's very experienced, knows the system very well, knows the ins and outs of it," offensive coordinator Marcus Brady said. "He's got speed. He's strong. People don't realize how strong he is as well. Great separation [ability]. He's an added weapon for us."
  • The tight end depth behind Mo Alie-Cox is interesting. Kylen Granson will be a factor. He has worked with the first-team unit some, and he has some moves while working inside. And rookie Jelani Woods is an impressive talent. The Colts have options there.
  • From what I'm told, the Colts' contract strategy is clear: Figure out a way to pay guard Quenton Nelson, hopefully this month. Other contract matters can wait. That means Kenny Moore II, a standout corner who has two years left on a four-year, $33 million deal, might not cash in until 2023. The same goes for linebacker Bobby Okereke, an underrated player.

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Tennessee Titans

Location: Nashville, Tennessee
Date I visited: Thursday, Aug. 4

Out of the Woods

Robert Woods calls himself "right on schedule" in his ACL recovery, and though he won't place a firm timeline on a return, Week 1 is clearly the plan -- and that plan is looking good.

"That's my goal to be out there, be available for my team, my coaching staff," Woods said.

Woods has ramped up his practice activity, and soon enough he should be a full-go, though here's to guessing the Titans keep him out of some of the preseason action.

Regardless, the Titans won't lean on one player to offset the loss of A.J. Brown, who was traded to the Eagles in April. They will make up his production collectively. A big part of that is Treylon Burks, a first-round pick who improved his conditioning this summer. That was a slight issue in OTAs/minicamp, but no longer. Burks has looked the part of a top pick so far, and Woods plans to keep it that way.

"Challenge him. Just let him know what it is in the league," said Woods on how he imparts wisdom to talented rookies. "Obviously it's one thing to be a first-round draft pick and to be able to have a good practice, but to be able to dominate in this league is having self-worth. You can be the guy in practice, but if you're not pushing yourself to go beyond, catch and run, making plays, then that's the difference."


QB answering the bell

The word I'm getting out of training camp is Ryan Tannehill has impressed the Titans, and that's not typical camp optimism. As my colleague Dan Graziano mentioned on Tuesday, Tannehill has come with a serious edge after an offseason that tested his mettle. Talk to just about anyone at Tennessee about how players are performing at camp, and Tannehill's name comes up quickly.

Woods, for one, said he has noticed how well Tannehill is throwing and running the ball, making the point that Tannehill's speedy presence gives them options. The veteran QB is making good decisions. It's early, but the Titans have been very pleased.


Titans fantasy tips and camp intel

  • The Titans have a plan to preserve running back Derrick Henry, who has 1,115 carries over the past four years. That plan starts in training camp, and on padded days, Henry will start but might not complete a full practice. The Titans will give him agility work or route-running exercises while the rest of the team practices. On other days, he might go through a full session. But it's clear they need to treat him differently at times, given the workload. And that preservation tells me Henry is up for another massive carry share. "If you can take 15 reps off him on Aug. 4, why not?" running backs coach Tony Dews said.
  • Someone with the Titans told me this about Kyle Phillips, a fifth-round receiver out of UCLA: "We haven't quite figured out a way to cover him yet." Phillips is very quick out of the slot and is earning some first-team looks with his play. Tennessee wants him to be a little quicker with his decision-making, but that will come.
  • Malik Willis is very clearly the developmental quarterback, and even when he gets second-team reps, the goal appears to be letting him redshirt behind the scenes. At times -- like when he rolls to his right -- he looks very comfortable and throws with conviction. Other times, you can tell he's thinking through things, and the ball is a tad late. But the Titans are happy with his progression overall. I don't get the sense the Titans are going to roll Willis out for a Wildcat-type package. He will be stashed.
  • Tannehill's safety valves when plays break down will most likely be Woods and tight end Austin Hooper, who should see a healthy red zone share. But the Titans also love Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's versatility, as he can play all three receiver spots.
  • Second-round pick Roger McCreary should work his way into a role in the secondary. He's a player multiple scouts told me pre-draft was underrated in the process. Teams were very high on his toughness and instincts.

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Cincinnati Bengals

Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Date I visited: Friday, Aug. 5

Weight watchers

The Bengals are not overly concerned with Joe Burrow's recovery after he had surgery to remove his appendix, but the biggest thing is monitoring his weight and making sure he is regaining his strength. Burrow has lost some weight, as is common with this procedure, and he has been drinking protein-style shakes. There's no rush to get him ready for preseason action, though.

As coach Zac Taylor stressed to me, Cincinnati is 30-plus days from Week 1 kickoff. The main thing for Burrow is communicating with his new offensive linemen, including offensive tackle La'el Collins, who has been on the non-football injury list but should be back soon. Guard Alex Cappa is easing his way back into practice, and new center Ted Karras has been out there. Burrow and his revamped line need to catch a rhythm.


Mixon's workload

Here's a good argument for running back Joe Mixon getting another large workload this year: Taylor is committed to taking whatever the defense gives him. And with arguably the game's best trio of receivers in Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, defenses will be daring Cincinnati to hand it off. That plan resulted in 292 rushes for 1,205 yards and 12 touchdowns for Mixon last season.

"We know some games we're going to rely heavily on the run. We have to," Taylor said. "And then there are other games we will spread them out and throw. ... We're at a point now where we don't have to force the ball to anybody. [Burrow] can make sound decisions as a quarterback and get the ball where it needs to go based on what's been given to him."

Cincinnati players and coaches are unanimous in saying Mixon is one of the game's best at wearing down defenders late in the game. He thrives off it.

"If you keep pounding the defense and wearing them down, that's going to play in your favor," Mixon said. "That's when we end up delivering."


Slightly different camp for Chase

Last training camp, Chase's drops in practice were a sizable storyline. But he instantly turned into one of the game's best receivers. Taylor obviously knew what he had, which is why he had to chuckle at that storyline now.

"The fans and media can ride the roller coaster of the daily activity of training camp," Taylor said. "We don't do that."

As Taylor points out, sometimes the defense or offense is ahead in its installations at different points in camp, resulting in an advantage that observers won't see. For instance, camp is also a time for quarterbacks to take chances, sometimes resulting in a lot of mistakes. Sure, criticism of a player might be warranted if he's not working hard or doesn't understand what it takes. But Taylor says, "That wasn't the case with Ja'Marr."

"He was working behind the scenes like a 10-year vet," he said. "Came in early, attentive in meetings, doing a great job. So maybe frustrating practices on his end. We didn't react like everybody else did because we knew he was coming."

Chase ultimately caught 81 passes for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns. He added another 25 catches, 368 yards and a touchdown during the Bengals' playoff run. Chase will line up both outside and in the slot this season, and he won't be limited in any way.

Bengals fantasy tips and camp intel

  • The Bengals don't have many sleepers on offense because they are so deep, but here's one: Kwamie Lassiter II, an undrafted free agent signing out of Kansas who is competing for the backup slot receiver job. He has had a really good offseason and training camp, Taylor said.
  • After taking back-to-back one-year deals in free agency, Karras eschewed journeyman status by earning the starting center job in Miami last year, leading to a three-year, $18 million deal with Cincinnati. How did he do it? "I grew up. I'm 29 years old, so I know how to be successful at this position. I'm lucky enough I got to stick around long enough to develop mentally and physically."

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Location: Latrobe, Pennsylvania
Date I visited: Saturday, Aug. 6

QB index

My sense on the quarterback situation after spending time in Pittsburgh is Mitch Trubisky remains the clear favorite to start, especially after his play picked up in recent days. He has performed better in red zone work, and the team seems to respond to him.

"I think Mitch is actually turning a lot of heads in camp," running back Najee Harris told me. "He's doing a good job of going through reads and understanding what stuff is, doing a good job of taking on that role. I'm excited to see what he does myself."

Harris added about Trubisky's running ability: "We haven't even put in some of the QB scheme runs -- because he can run. I'm excited about all of that."

Mason Rudolph has made things interesting, though. He has been solid and accurate. If it's Trubisky's job to lose, and it appears to be, there's only so much Rudolph can do. Kenny Pickett will likely need some time to develop, and there's not much feeling that Pittsburgh will rush him into the starting job.

The key will be figuring out how Pittsburgh utilizes the three players on game day. The Steelers prefer to keep three QBs on the active roster, but which one will be inactive on Sundays? Rudolph is earning the right to be in the lineup, but placing your first-round pick on the game-day inactive list isn't ideal for his development.

Running back rest

Harris plans to be fully back from his minor foot injury over the next week or so, and it seems like Pittsburgh is taking some license in pacing its prized No. 1 back. There's no alarm about his actual health. He feels fine.

"I always want to practice, always want to play, but I understand what they are doing," Harris said. "They want to see the other guys, see what they can do."

Harris is preparing for another massive workload to build off his 307-carry, 1,200-yard rookie performance. Behind him, veteran Benny Snell is positioned for the No. 2 role, with Anthony McFarland and Jaylen Warren working to make things interesting.

Harris knows his presence helps bring balance to the offense, but he also stresses the Steelers' offensive talent is deep.

"We've got a lot of playmakers -- Pat [Freiermuth], Chase [Claypool], Diontae [Johnson], even the new guys with George [Pickens] and [Calvin] Austin and even Connor [Heyward]," he said. "We've got to find a way where we can establish what we do best, get them the ball in space, change the offense in ways we can be more explosive."


Steelers fantasy tips and camp intel

  • Some league personnel evaluators consider Pat Freiermuth as the most elite of the Steelers' playmakers. Don't be surprised if he's a top-10 tight end by season's end. A hamstring injury has affected his chemistry with the quarterbacks, but that should come together quickly upon his return.
  • Why don't the Steelers feel a need to panic by adding a veteran free agent defensive back right now? Six players on the two-deep depth chart have extensive starter experience, and five others have played valuable snaps in the NFL. This is not an inexperienced group -- just one without blue-chip names, save Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Steelers believe they can roll out different combinations to thwart the defense. The goal is to not have an obvious weak link that receivers and quarterbacks can target.
  • Yes, George Pickens has been a standout in camp. His body control on contested catches has provided highlights almost daily. I'm told coaches have been pleased with his approach to being a professional, too. He hasn't been a problem behind the scenes. Pickens wanted to go to a place with a stable NFL culture, and Pittsburgh is ideal for that.
  • I'm not sure exactly how many targets Calvin Austin III will get, but he is making his presence known early in camp. Trubisky isn't afraid to throw his way, and he has more than just speed -- he has reliable hands.

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Cleveland Browns

Location: Berea, Ohio
Date I visited: Sunday, Aug. 7

Sophomore spike

One Browns player primed for a Year 2 jump is linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, a player some league execs have pegged as an eventual top-10 linebacker.

"Finding the ball, IQ, knowing when and where to strike, pass coverage, zone drops -- these are things I'm looking to grow at," Owusu-Koramoah said.

That includes a range of responsibilities. Owusu-Koramoah is not a traditional thumping linebacker. He's listed at 221 pounds but has serious range that expands his role in the defense.

"I can play down on the edge, inside the defense, outside the defense, in the APEX, wide alignment, box, edges," Owusu-Koramoah said. "Everywhere, basically."
 

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Wagerallsports

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Fantasy football: 12 players who could be this season's breakout stars​

ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL

It's one of the questions I get asked most often during the offseason.

"Who is this year's (enter breakout player from last season)?"

It's not a simple question to answer, because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. And if the people want comparisons, comparisons they shall receive!

The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2021's top breakout players and came up with a short list of guys who have a similar pedigree as they enter 2022. Below is an analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the others who landed on the short list.

Note that this is not my way of definitively predicting these players will definitely break out this season. Again, it's simply those positioned to do so as a product of landing in a similar situation to the players who burst onto the fantasy scene last season.

This season's Joe Burrow: Trevor Lawrence
The 2020 first overall NFL draft pick emerged into a QB1 in his second season.

Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), Lamar Jackson (2019), Kyler Murray (2020) and Burrow (2021) are recent examples of first-round quarterbacks who broke out in their second seasons. None was as productive as a rookie, which is notable here as Lawrence certainly had his struggles -- granted, under poor circumstances -- in his first season. Weak efficiency isn't a major concern for first-year signal-callers, who generally make a big leap in Year 2. Lawrence, who ranked seventh in pass attempts and fifth in carries among quarterbacks, will also benefit from an improved supporting cast led by Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne Jr., Evan Engram and Brandon Scherff. He's an extremely logical and somewhat overlooked breakout candidate who should be on your radar in the later rounds.

Other candidates: Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills


This season's Jalen Hurts: Trey Lance
Hurts relied heavily on his elite rushing ability to emerge as a QB1 in his second NFL season.

Hurts paced all quarterbacks in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, which allowed him to produce at a midrange-QB1 level despite ranking outside the top 20 in passing yards and TDs. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Lance achieve something similar in 2022. He posted a 169 carry-1,100 yard-14 TD rushing line in his lone full collegiate season and ran 24 times for 120 yards in two starts as a rookie. Set up nicely with Kyle Shanahan as his playcaller and Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as primary targets, Lance is well positioned for a strong fantasy campaign. Even if he underwhelms as a passer, there is QB1 upside in his range of outcomes.

Other candidates: Justin Fields


This season's Jonathan Taylor: Javonte Williams
Taylor emerged as an elite RB1 in his second NFL season.

This may not seem like a great comp considering that Melvin Gordon III remains on the Denver roster, but consider this: Taylor was in a similar position early in 2021. He played 50% of the Colts' snaps and was 11th at running back in fantasy points through Week 5 before fending off Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines on his way to a 78% snap share and 64 more fantasy points than any other back the rest of the way. Perhaps Williams can achieve something similar this season with 29-year-old Gordon's role only expected to decrease. With a new coaching staff and a much better QB in Russell Wilson, Williams is set up well for a big leap.

Other candidates: Travis Etienne Jr.


This season's Javonte Williams: Kenneth Walker III
Williams was an explosive rookie back who made noise while operating in a committee.

Speaking of Williams, his 17th-place fantasy campaign as a rookie was quite impressive considering his 50/50 split with Gordon for 16 of 17 games. Walker could be looking at more of a 20-30% snap share to begin his career, as Rashaad Penny will be the lead rusher with DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer options in passing situations. Of course, Walker's collegiate rushing efficiency was nothing short of elite and suggests he'll deliver plenty of big plays, same as Williams did. Early-career fantasy value is unlikely, but Walker's second-round pedigree and Penny's major durability issues tell us that he'll jump into, at least, the RB2 mix if Penny misses time.

Other candidates: Isaiah Spiller, James Cook, Rachaad White


This season's Najee Harris: Breece Hall
Harris was immediately a weekly lineup lock as an early-round rookie running back.

Whereas Harris had an extremely clear path to feature back duties, Hall will need to fend off Michael Carter, especially on passing downs. Still, Hall is the clear top three-down-back prospect in this year's rookie class and projects as a 15-plus-touch player out of the gate. Hall, who scored a touchdown in an NCAA-record 24 consecutive games to end his collegiate career, is an extreme long shot to come close to Harris' 381 touches, but could push for close to 280. That'd be enough to make him a must-start and perhaps even a fantasy RB1, especially in non-PPR leagues.


This season's Elijah Mitchell/Michael Carter: Tyler Allgeier
Mitchell and Carter were Day 3 rookies who quickly found their way to lead-back duties and, in turn, weekly fantasy lineups.

Before we dive into this one, let's be clear that Day 3 RBs have a very low hit rate and are extreme long shots for consistent Year 1 fantasy production. We obviously don't want to get too caught up in this year's slate of mid/late-round picks at the position, but we did see sixth-round gem Mitchell and fourth-rounder Carter flirt with RB2 status at times last season. Allgeier is in a similar spot to Carter in that the fifth-round pick was selected by a team with arguably the league's shakiest backfield. His top competition will come from 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson, who will also play wide receiver a bit, and 30-year-old career situational back Damien Williams. Allgeier was a super-productive and efficient rusher at BYU and has good size at 224 pounds. He may lack for targets, but Allgeier, at the least, has a shot at big early-down, and perhaps goal-line, roles. Consider him late in your draft.

Other candidates: Dameon Pierce


This season's Cordarrelle Patterson: None
Patterson was a versatile, journeyman offensive player who finally emerged as a fantasy starter.

The Atlanta backfield is a natural segue to this year's Patterson, whom we can't skip over after his RB9 fantasy campaign but who was such an unusual breakout that it's extremely tough to find a potential comp. Patterson spent most of his first eight NFL seasons as a returner and depth receiver before blooming as a RB/WR hybrid in Atlanta last season. The best I can do is list a few multitalented veterans: Isaiah McKenzie (a career return man/depth receiver battling for primary slot duties in Buffalo), Avery Williams (Atlanta return man who converted from corner to RB during the offseason) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (figures to play a more versatile role this season, but likely has too much competition to emerge as a fantasy option). None are great comps, but hey, they're somethin'!


This season's Deebo Samuel/Hunter Renfrow: CeeDee Lamb
Samuel and Renfrow suddenly became top-10 fantasy WRs in their third NFL season.

Lamb seemed destined for a Year 2 breakout last season, but Dak Prescott spread the ball around quite a bit, which limited the ceiling for him and Amari Cooper, but helped the likes of Dalton Schultz, Cedrick Wilson and Tony Pollard. In fact, Lamb has finished 48th and 36th at wide receiver in target share during his two seasons. Of course, with Cooper and Wilson gone and Michael Gallup recovering from a torn ACL, Lamb finally appears in line for a leap in usage and production. The 23-year-old is being drafted well before Samuel and Renfrow were in 2021 drafts, so while the comp isn't perfect, Lamb is nonetheless a clear breakout candidate with elite upside.

Other candidates: Jerry Jeudy, Michael Pittman Jr. (Both of these guys have a bit of a Cooper Kupp feel to them as well, in the sense that they're veteran WRs with new QBs who could vault them to the elite if all goes right.)


This season's Ja'Marr Chase/Jaylen Waddle: Drake London
Chase and Waddle were first-round rookie WRs who quickly emerged as a weekly fantasy starters.

Six wide receivers were selected in the first 18 picks of April's draft, so we have a lot of candidates for this one. London is the favorite for a variety of reasons, led by the fact that he was the first one selected and that he has the clearest path to No. 1 duties in his new offense. London's top competition at wide receiver is Bryan Edwards and Olamide Zaccheaus, which should lock the rookie into a 90% or so snap share and substantial target share every week he's healthy. Rookie receivers selected in the first half of the first round have a strong track record of success in recent seasons, so London -- as well as the "other candidates" listed below -- should be selected earlier than they are in most drafts this offseason. Jameson Williams is excluded here, since he is expected to miss time while rehabbing a torn ACL.

Other candidates: Treylon Burks, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson


This season's 2019 Chris Godwin: Gabriel Davis
Godwin was an underutilized midround WR during his first two seasons before breaking out in a larger role with a great offense in Year 3.

I'm cheating here by going back to 2019, but I can't get past the overwhelming similarities between these situations. Check this out. Godwin was a third-round pick who played situational snaps and posted 34-525-1 and 59-842-7 receiving lines during his first two seasons. In Year 3, he was finally vaulted to an every-down role with a much larger target share in a pass-heavy, high-scoring offense, which resulted in an 86-1,333-9 receiving line and second-place fantasy campaign. Davis was a fourth-round pick who played situational snaps and posted 35-599-7 and 35-549-6 receiving lines during his first two seasons (39-684-7 and 45-791-11 if we include five playoff games). In Year 3, he appears headed for an every-down role with a much larger target share in a pass-heavy, high-scoring offense led by Josh Allen. Is Davis a breakout lock? Of course not. But he's certainly positioned well.


This season's Amon-Ra St. Brown: Romeo Doubs
St. Brown was a Day 3 rookie WR who emerged as a fantasy starter after a slow start.

This was a tough one and I wouldn't get too caught up in it, as Day 3 rookie wide receivers rarely find themselves on the fantasy radar. Still, St. Brown proved to be an exception, so we'll take a look at a 2022 candidate in a similar spot. Selected in the fourth round of April's draft, Doubs was the second of three wide receivers picked by Green Bay. Christian Watson (second round) has received plenty of fantasy hype and Samori Toure (seventh) is an obvious long shot, leaving Doubs as the intriguing flier. With Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling gone, the Packers' WR depth chart is wide open, with the rookies battling Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins and Amari Rodgers for snaps. Doubs operated as a vertical, perimeter target at Nevada and could step into a similar role with the Packers. Monitor his progress throughout the preseason.

Other candidates: Calvin Austin III, Kyle Phillips, Michael Woods II


This season's Darnell Mooney: Nico Collins
Mooney was a sleeper receiver who made a big leap in his second season.

Mooney's breakout came despite opening the season seemingly behind a veteran No. 1 receiver (Allen Robinson II) in a low-scoring Chicago offense, and Collins is in a similar spot behind Brandin Cooks in Houston. With John Metchie III expected to miss the 2022 season, Collins should easily lock down No. 2 duties, with Chris Conley, Chris Moore and Phillip Dorsett as his top competition. Collins, a 2021 third-round pick, is a huge (6-foot-4, 222 pounds), vertical receiver (12th in average depth of route as a rookie) with a path to a big boost in volume after seeing 61 targets in 14 games last season. Don't overlook him as a sleeper late in your draft.

Other candidates: Rondale Moore, Joshua Palmer, Terrace Marshall, Anthony Schwartz, Dee Eskridge


This season's Kyle Pitts/Pat Freiermuth: None
Pitts and Freiermuth emerged as TE1 options as rookies.

Following impressive rookie campaigns, Pitts ranks fourth and Freiermuth 10th of all time in fantasy points by a first-year tight end. Evan Engram (2017) is the only other rookie tight end to clear 150 fantasy points over the past decade. That said, it'd be a reach to expect anyone from this year's rookie class to find his way to weekly TE1 status, especially since the top TE drafted, Trey McBride, will be blocked for work by veteran Zach Ertz. The other candidates below have a path to significant first-year snaps and perhaps one will emerge, but none needs to be on your radar in your run-of-the-mill 10-to-12-team leagues.

Potential candidates: Greg Dulcich, Jelani Woods, Cade Otton, Daniel Bellinger


This season's Dalton Schultz: Pat Freiermuth
Schultz was a veteran TE who made the leap to must-start territory.

Schultz's leap (from 11th in fantasy points in 2020 to third in 2021) came in his fourth NFL season, but Freiermuth appears to be on a bit of a faster track after finishing 13th in 2021 despite spending half the season "behind" Eric Ebron. With Ebron gone, Freiermuth figures to hang close to the 6.0 targets per game he averaged after Pittsburgh's Week 7 bye last season. The Pittsburgh QB situation is a concern, but it wasn't very good last season (6.0 YPA ranked 30th) and Freiermuth still delivered TE1 production once promoted to starter. He remains a value in the middle rounds of drafts.

Other candidates: Cole Kmet, David Njoku, Irv Smith Jr.
 

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Fantasy football rankings: Eric Karabell's running back tiers​

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Fantasy football drafts are all about value, supply and demand and, to some degree, just plain going with your gut. Anyone can see the raw stats from last season, project ahead and make those numbers tell the story they desire, but there must be something more that separates how we choose the players. Relying in part on a positional tiered system can be of the utmost help during those pressurized moments in a draft when the clock is ticking and the seconds are winding down. Checking the tiers by position aids in decision-making.

Rankings are everywhere, of course, in our game and others, and everyone and their mail carrier can do them, but a tiered system takes the process further, allowing you to further clarify remaining value at a certain position and evaluate depth. Round 4 comes around and you're focused, as you should be, on the best available players. Say you don't have a quarterback yet -- it's the smart move -- but you've already invested in several flex-eligible players. Well, check your tiers for available options. The answers are there.

For example, perhaps you see four available quarterbacks in the highest tier, negligible difference between them. Pass. Pass for a while. There's also quite the crew of wide receivers clumped together. Pass again. There's ample wide receiver depth. You can wait. Then there are one or two running backs alone in a tier and, in your opinion, a significant jump in production compared to the next section. There -- thanks to a tiered system -- is the answer. Reduce your stress, crave efficiency. As the saying goes, "By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail."

Anyway, fantasy managers should rank, project and tier players themselves, for their league format, using analysts as a guide to help construct their opinions. Then do what you want! The fantasy teams are yours. If you do not agree with the tiers below, well, good, you shouldn't! Follow your own advice, your gut and build the teams you want. Below are one analyst's tiers for running backs (standard league, PPR), but again, make your own. You will be pleased you did.


Tier 1: First overall pick​

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Notes: The first pick in PPR leagues combines statistical excellence with durability. Each of those matter.

Tier 2: Round 1​

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

Notes: Perhaps there are mild question marks with each of the first four options in this tier, but those pale in comparison to those of McCaffrey, whom many still view as the No. 1 or 2 overall pick. McCaffrey played in 10 games the past two seasons. Sure, he was awesome in those games, but 10 games out of 33 is hardly enough to satiate a fantasy investor. Perhaps he won't be around later in Round 1, and perhaps that's not such a bad thing for the cautious fantasy manager.

Tier 3: Round 2​


Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

Notes: The back end of the top 10 of running backs provides a strong foundation at the position, with upside. Remember, the "R" in PPR formats is for receptions, and Kamara and Swift sure do catch passes.

Tier 4: Rounds 3-4​

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Notes: The start of the tier features accomplished veterans who have teammates vying for touches in the backfield. Conner will surely score fewer touchdowns than last season. Etienne isn't technically a rookie, but he hasn't registered a regular-season snap; however, his pass-catching upside is significant.

Tier 5: Rounds 4-5​

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Notes: Welcome to the list, NFC East participants! Elliott and Barkley have proved themselves as fantasy building blocks, but not recently. Be careful in assuming either returns to prior greatness.


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Tier 6: Rounds 5-6​

Breece Hall, New York Jets
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

Notes: By this point in drafts, fantasy managers might start to wish they had better fortified the position with earlier selections. Hall might be great right away, but he is a rookie and is sharing the backfield. Dobbins might also be great, but he remains on the mend from a serious knee injury. Questions abound for everyone in between, as well.

Tier 7: Rounds 7-8​

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

Notes: Here we see several starting running backs, but in offenses in which the quarterback offers such a high percentage of the team's offense that it might be difficult for the ball carriers to truly thrive. Sanders, for example, scored nary a touchdown a season ago. These are complementary fantasy options, not reliable RB2 choices.

Tier 8: Rounds 8-9​

Damien Harris, New England Patriots
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers
Chase Edmonds, Miami Dolphins

Notes: Another rookie makes an appearance, but Pierce will move up if the Texans give him the starting role. Pollard, Gordon and Dillon are productive players working in tandem with starters, but if they only saw greater opportunity, watch out. What an intriguing tier this is.

Tier 9: Rounds 9-10​

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
Michael Carter, New York Jets

Notes: This is a significant tier, in that it's perhaps the final one in which a fantasy manager can find starters and reliable production. Surely one of the Seahawks here will emerge. Patterson remains a key Falcon, even on modest volume. Robinson starred two seasons ago and might again.

Tier 10: Rounds 11-12​

James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
J.D. McKissic, Washington Commanders
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

Notes: Hines and McKissic are valuable because they catch passes, and many fantasy managers might not realize the impact they can have. McKissic caught 80 passes two seasons ago and was a strong RB3. Hines has 40 or more receptions in each season of his underrated career. Cook, the younger brother of Minnesota's Dalvin Cook, figures to catch passes too.

Tier 11: Rounds 12-13​

Isaiah Spiller, Los Angeles Chargers
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons

Notes: We love the rookies! Each member of this trio possesses major upside if given the chance, but there is also the possibility -- if not likelihood -- they contribute little in September and fantasy investors cut bait. Try to be patient.

Tier 12: Rounds 13-14​

Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
Ronald Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
Marlon Mack, Houston Texans
Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams

Notes: Some interesting backups remain on the board later in drafts, and it might be wise to reach a bit for them if you've already secured their more productive teammates. Mattison, for prime example, has proved a must-play when Dalvin Cook misses games. Even the older veterans here have produced quite a bit in the past.

Tier 13: Rounds 14-15​

Damien Williams, Atlanta Falcons
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
Mark Ingram II, New Orleans Saints
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders

Notes: The stars might be gone, but potential contributors remain. Edwards and Ingram could have larger roles than expected. Robinson seems to be rising in the preseason.

Tier 14: Round 15 or undrafted​

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
D'Onta Foreman, Carolina Panthers


Notes: There might be no more important backup in fantasy than one of these fellows, unless you believe McCaffrey returns to full durability -- which we hope happens. If not, either Hubbard or Foreman will become really valuable. Consider taking one or both of them earlier, but note that McCaffrey is healthy today, so patience is warranted.

Tier 15: Round 15 or undrafted​

Rex Burkhead, Houston Texans
Mike Davis, Baltimore Ravens
Hassan Haskins, Tennessee Titans
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Sony Michel, Miami Dolphins
Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles

Notes: Players of this ilk should be available in free agency in September, and we could probably list about 20 others, as well. Whether old or young, able to catch passes from the backfield or not, aim to be open-minded. It's a long season!
 

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Fantasy football rankings: Eric Karabell's wide receiver tiers​

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Fantasy football drafts are all about value, supply and demand and, to some degree, just plain going with your gut. Anyone can see the raw stats from last season, project ahead and make those numbers tell the story they desire, but there must be something more that separates how we choose the players. Relying in part on a positional tiered system can be of the utmost help during those pressurized moments in a draft when the clock is ticking and the seconds are winding down. Checking the tiers by position aids in decision-making.

Rankings are everywhere, of course, in our game and others, and everyone and their mail carrier can do them, but a tiered system takes the process further, allowing you to further clarify remaining value at a certain position and evaluate depth. Round 4 comes around and you're focused, as you should be, on the best available players. Say you don't have a quarterback yet -- it's the smart move -- but you've already invested in several flex-eligible players. Well, check your tiers for available options. The answers are there.

For example, perhaps you see four available quarterbacks in the highest tier, negligible difference between them. Pass. Pass for a while. There's also quite the crew of wide receivers clumped together. Pass again. There's ample wide receiver depth. You can wait. Then there are one or two running backs alone in a tier and, in your opinion, a significant jump in production compared to the next section. There -- thanks to a tiered system -- is the answer. Reduce your stress, crave efficiency. As the saying goes, "By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail."

Anyway, fantasy managers should rank, project and tier players themselves, for their league format, using analysts as a guide to help construct their opinions. Then do what you want! The fantasy teams are yours. If you do not agree with the tiers below, well, good, you shouldn't! Follow your own advice, your gut and build the teams you want. Below are one analyst's tiers for wide receivers (standard league, PPR), but again, make your own. You will be pleased you did.


Tier 1: Top of Round 1 overall​

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Notes: Running back Jonathan Taylor is the first overall pick, but one could easily make the case for one of these receivers next, as any or all might go in the top five picks. Kupp had the monster 2021 season, but Jefferson and Chase project similarly for 2022.

Tier 2: Round 2​

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Notes: This is a strong, reliable crew of receivers for the second round, and it includes several big-name players switching teams in Adams and Hill, who are leaving top quarterbacks for lesser ones. If you choose to keep Adams and Hill at the top of the tier, we won't argue ... too much.

Tier 3: Round 3​

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers

Notes: These might not be clear WR1 options, but they are accomplished players in their own right. Allen gets his 100 receptions. Evans scores touchdowns. Moore remains consistent and underrated regardless of quarterback.

Tier 4: Rounds 3-4​

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Elijah Moore, New York Jets

Notes: This is a larger tier that includes several receivers who are not expected to be the prime targets in the offense. Still, don't let that influence your decisions. Waddle and Williams can still be terrific. Brown goes to a new offense, but target share should not be a problem.

Tier 5: Rounds 5-6​

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Notes: And here is an even larger tier, a reminder that after the first few rounds many of the wide receivers are statistically indistinguishable. It hardly means one or two cannot emerge as more, though. The Broncos have an impactful, new quarterback. Brown might thrive in his new home. Godwin just needs a return to health to move up a tier or even two.


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Tier 6: Rounds 7-8​

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs
Allen Robinson II, Los Angeles Rams

Notes: Wow, a whole lot of wide receivers changed teams this offseason! Just that fact alone is not predictive of positive or negative value, but sometimes it takes a few games for newcomers to fit in with new passers. In addition, some will dismiss the older Thielen and younger Smith, but here they seem underrated.

Tier 7: Rounds 9-10​

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers
Robert Woods, Tennessee Titans

Notes: Someone has to catch the passes thrown by Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill! They are, of course, very different quarterbacks. Bateman, Lazard and Woods offer different degrees of upside and stability, but any of them could emerge as WR4 choices, too.

Tier 8: Round 10​

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals

Notes: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Thomas has barely played since the 2019 MVP season because of injury. Hopkins cannot play this season until late October because of a performance-enhancing substance suspension. Drafting on name value is such a dangerous thing.

Tier 9: Rounds 10-11​

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Notes: Rookies! Several of these highly regarded, first-year options might become immediate providers of receptions, yards and touchdowns, but based on what we know of rookie wide receivers in past seasons, it might be any of them or none of them. Risks abound. That's why they are better served as later-round fantasy picks.

Tier 10: Rounds 11-12​

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Russell Gage, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
Robbie Anderson, Carolina Panthers
Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
Marvin Jones Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Notes: There is a bit of guesswork in this tier. With Hill gone, will QB Patrick Mahomes turn any of these Chiefs wide receivers into fantasy stars? Can Giants QB Daniel Jones make his receivers relevant? Aiyuk and Boyd are relevant, but perhaps a bit down the depth chart of their offense's options.

Tier 11: Rounds 13-undrafted​


Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
Jarvis Landry, New Orleans Saints
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams
Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
DJ Chark, Detroit Lions
Cedrick Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins
DeVante Parker, New England Patriots
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts
Odell Beckham Jr., free agent

Notes: The depth at wide receiver is clearly different from that at running back, so many fantasy managers load up on the latter position, hoping to hit the proverbial home run, knowing that the former position will provide September aid. There are upside options within this tier, and among some wide receivers we didn't even rank.
 

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Deep fantasy football sleepers: Romeo Doubs among names to keep an eye on​

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Anyone can play fantasy football, but to be the most successful manager possible, knowledge of more than merely the top 160 mixed-league picks is essential.

This game changes dramatically and unexpectedly. Injuries are certain to happen, roles will quickly shift, and by October you might have already turned over one-quarter of your roster -- even if you're winning. Be prepared to pounce when pickups present themselves, when angling to balance trades with creative throw-ins, or even simply when your good buddy calls you on the Wednesday before opening night saying he has an opening in his 14-team half-PPR league (to which, naturally, you do not want to reply, "Wow, that's deeper than I'm used to!").

All that is where this column comes in. Every preseason, I compile a list of deep sleepers, players who by all accounts will not -- and arguably should not -- be drafted in a standard 10-team ESPN PPR league, but who have decent-to-good odds at contributing sometime during the season. If an opportunity arises for any one of them, they could be just the key to a fantasy championship run.

To be clear, this is a deep sleepers column, not a space where you'll find "regular" sleepers such as Trevor Lawrence, Dameon Pierce, Rondale Moore or Irv Smith Jr., though I very much like all four as value selections. This list takes the sleeper exercise a step deeper, digging into the pool of less-familiar names, and of course with the heightened challenge comes a greater rate of failure. Often in this space we're seeking skills over roles, and roles sometimes don't align, even over 17 games.


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Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona Cardinals

As a strong example of roles failing to crystallize, Benjamin made the 2020 list only to see no action in games, as Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds managed 336 of 338 carries from the Cardinals' backfield that season. Benjamin did see time spelling James Conner and Edmonds last season, but with lackluster results, averaging 3.3 yards per carry (playoffs included). Nevertheless, offseason reports on Benjamin were glowing, particularly on his improvement in pass protection, and he's very much in the competition for the No. 2 role with Edmonds gone. Benjamin's elusiveness was on full display as a two-year starter for Arizona State, rushing for at least 1,000 yards and 10 scores each season. Speaking of potential opportunity, remember, Conner has missed 14 games combined in four seasons as an NFL starter.

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Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers

Selected 98 picks later than fellow 2022 Packers draftee Christian Watson, Doubs mostly gets overshadowed due to his "small-school" (Nevada) college prospect status, but he made waves early in the offseason by capitalizing on an expanded opportunity while Watson recovered from June knee surgery. Most notably, Doubs hauled in a 33-yard touchdown pass in his preseason debut, exhibiting his big-play potential. Then in the second preseason game, he caught a 4-yard TD, showing his red zone potential. While it's possible that his best-case scenario is stepping into Marquez Valdes-Scantling's deep-threat role, the fluidity in the Packers' wide receiver depth chart means that any player getting talked up by Aaron Rodgers needs to be taken seriously in the sleeper conversation.

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KJ Hamler, WR, Denver Broncos

A repeat from my 2021 list, Hamler often gets lost in all the excitement surrounding other members of the Broncos' passing game, following their offseason acquisition of Russell Wilson. The fact that Hamler was lost for the year to a torn ACL in Week 3 of 2021, an injury that might linger into this season's opening weeks, doesn't help as far as getting him on the radar. Still, his field-stretching ability would be a welcome complement to Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Albert Okwuegbunam, and he did his best work during his rookie season out of the slot, a role that is now wide open for the taking following Tim Patrick's season-ending knee injury. Hamler's upside makes him well worth watching in the opening weeks.

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Velus Jones Jr., WR, Chicago Bears

A Senior Bowl and NFL combine standout for his blazing speed, Jones had an otherwise ordinary college career. Many of the raves directed at his final-season performance at Tennessee were tempered by his age advantage as a fifth-year player. Still, the Bears, who overhauled their wide receiver corps during the offseason, tabbed him as their first skill-position pick off the board, going with a speed-oriented strategy at the position. This is more of an opportunity-driven pick, being that Jones' long-term ceiling probably isn't as high as a typical rookie wide receiver's, but I do see a possibility that the Bears could get creative with him, even testing him in a hybrid role that could boost his fantasy production. He's a player you should be watching closely for the remainder of the preseason.

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Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens

To be clear up front, Mark Andrews isn't going anywhere as the Ravens' go-to tight end. Andrews is the obstacle in Likely's path, and he's a massive one, but let's also not forget that both Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst delivered at least 75 PPR points for the 2019 Ravens, and the team did open up a good share of targets by trading Marquise Brown on draft day. Likely is a tad undersized (6-foot-4, 235 pounds), particularly compared with Andrews (6-5, 256), and might need some work as a blocker, but there's a very real path to his seeing some red zone work or even lining up occasionally as a wide receiver. Regard Likely as more of a dynasty stash, but I see a potentially bright future for him.

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Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

If you're a big fan of combine numbers, know that Pacheco matched Pierre Strong Jr. for the fastest 40 time (4.37), which captured plenty of attention after he displayed forgettable numbers as a three-year starter at Rutgers (4.2 yards per carry, 15 total touchdowns). In the rookie seventh-rounder's defense, however, he ran behind a brutal offensive line, whereas in Kansas City he'd run behind one of the league's best. Pacheco tallied a pair of touches in the Chiefs' opening drive of their first preseason game, a hint that the team is taking him very seriously in its backfield competition. The Chiefs' backfield depth chart is similarly fluid to that of the Packers' wide receivers, and I definitely want a share from this backfield. Pacheco's ADP makes him a wise and efficient way to get it.


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Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers


The No. 4 running back off the board in the 2021 NFL draft, Sermon was a Week 1 healthy scratch on the heels of a pedestrian preseason, only to be thrust into starting status two weeks later after the injury losses of Raheem Mostert and Elijah Mitchell. Sermon failed to impress in either game, scarcely played after Mitchell's Week 5 return and was ultimately lost for the rest of the regular season to an ankle injury in Week 12. Entering his sophomore season, however, Sermon is firmly a top-four running back in Kyle Shanahan's backfield, highly likely to make the team, and he's still every bit the downfield runner with passing-game chops that he was at this time last year. Shanahan loves his backfields-by-committee, but he's also apt to lean on the hot hand. What if Sermon's rookie-year struggles were just that, typical struggles that rookies face at this level? Let's hope we get to find out, as he left practice on Thursday with an undisclosed injury.

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Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets

Quarterback is a notoriously difficult position from which to find deep sleepers, as every one of the 32 projected starters and the highest-drafted rookies are all well-known names, but Wilson fits for this exercise because of the questions surrounding his recovery from knee surgery, which is expected to cost him anywhere from two to four weeks. That makes him a near-certainty for a questionable tag in Week 1 -- I'd argue you have no business expecting anything from him before Week 3. That's a tough pill to swallow when the position is so deep and fantasy roster spots are so precious. Still, once he heals, he's in a make-or-break position, as the Jets have fortified their offense during the draft and given him a good number of playmakers to throw to, and he spent his own offseason adding bulk. Wilson merely needs to polish his short game, having posted league-worst completion (61.0%) and off-target (19.0%) rates on throws shorter than 10 yards downfield, hardly easy but also a realistic goal considering his skill set. He's the late-round quarterback -- especially post-surgery -- I'd love to stash where I can swing it.
 

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Fantasy football rankings: Eric Karabell's quarterback tiers​

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Fantasy football drafts are all about value, supply and demand and, to some degree, just plain going with your gut. Anyone can see the raw stats from last season, project ahead and make those numbers tell the story they desire, but there must be something more that separates how we choose the players. Relying in part on a positional tiered system can be of the utmost help during those pressurized moments in a draft when the clock is ticking and the seconds are winding down. Checking the tiers by position aids in decision-making.

Rankings are everywhere, of course, in our game and others, and everyone and their mail carrier can do them, but a tiered system takes the process further, allowing you to further clarify remaining value at a certain position and evaluate depth. Round 4 comes around and you're focused, as you should be, on the best available players. Say you don't have a quarterback yet -- it's the smart move -- but you've already invested in several flex-eligible players. Well, check your tiers for available options. The answers are there.

For example, perhaps you see four available quarterbacks in the highest tier, negligible difference between them. Pass. Pass for a while. There's also quite the crew of wide receivers clumped together. Pass again. There's ample wide receiver depth. You can wait. Then there are one or two running backs alone in a tier and, in your opinion, a significant jump in production compared to the next section. There -- thanks to a tiered system -- is the answer. Reduce your stress, crave efficiency. As the saying goes, "By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail."

Anyway, fantasy managers should rank, project and tier players themselves, for their league format, using analysts as a guide to help construct their opinions. Then do what you want! The fantasy teams are yours. If you do not agree with the tiers below, well, good, you shouldn't! Follow your own advice, your gut and build the teams you want. Below are one analyst's tiers for quarterbacks (standard league, PPR), but again, make your own. You will be pleased you did.


Tier 1: Round 3​

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Notes: Yes, Allen really does stand alone at the top, and it's because of his ability to accrue rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. The passing strides he has made since the 2019 season are incredible. Also, don't take a quarterback in the first three or even seven or eight rounds. The running back depth -- and to some degree, wide receiver depth -- ends earlier than you realize.

Tier 2: Rounds 4-5​

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Notes: They're great and you'll be set at quarterback if you take them, but again, get your passers later. The value here just doesn't work when compared to flex-eligible positions. Mahomes, by the way, has not finished among the top three quarterbacks in fantasy in any of the past three seasons, since he dominated in 2018. That seems a bit relevant.

Tier 3: Rounds 6-7​

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Notes: Here we have three superstars adding considerable statistical value with their running prowess, though they are a bit flawed as passers. The quarterbacks in this tier are strong values compared to the quarterbacks in earlier ones.

Tier 4: Rounds 8-9​

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Notes: Yeah, that is a considerable tier with several future Hall of Famers, options who have won MVP awards and an up-and-comer we think will add tremendous value with his legs in Lance. After this, there seems to be quite a drop-off in talent, but in 10- and even 12-team leagues, you should be able to secure one of these players. Don't feel the need to reach for quarterbacks in this tier five rounds earlier.


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Tier 5: Rounds 11-12​

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Notes: Quarterback is deep enough and most of the top options are quite durable, so fantasy managers need not leave their traditional draft or salary cap draft -- unless it's a superflex format or 2-QB league -- with more than one. Wait for the bye weeks. One can invest in a safe veteran such as Carr or Cousins, or take some chances with a young option such as Lawrence, Tagovailoa or Fields who might blossom into a star.

Tier 6: Rounds 14-15​

Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

Notes: These are hardly bad quarterbacks, which proves the point that waiting on the position is wise. Winston threw for 5,000 yards in 2019. Ryan was the No. 2 fantasy QB in 2018. Wilson was right next to Jacksonville's Lawrence in these rankings/tiers before hurting his knee in the first preseason game. Tannehill, like Ryan, could easily bounce back this season.

Tier 7: Undrafted​


Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers
Davis Mills, Houston Texans
Drew Lock/Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Kenny Pickett/Mitch Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacoby Brissett/Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Notes: There is a fine line between late-round picks and picks who just aren't worth it. Daniel Jones played well as a rookie in 2019 and might do so again. Many once loved his upside. Now, he has much to prove. So do Wentz and Mayfield in their new homes. There are rookies and veterans here. In standard leagues, they will be available during the season.
 

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Fantasy football: Matt Bowen's 18 favorite draft targets​

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This summer, I've taken part in a bunch of fantasy football mock drafts at ESPN: PPR leagues, non-PPR and superflex, 10- and 12-team formats. In doing so, I've developed a group of core players -- in multiple tiers -- I'm targeting on my draft board.

I've got three quarterbacks in here, along with pass-catching backs and downhill, power runners. Plus, there are volume targets at wide receiver and tight ends with red zone upside. Below are 18 total players, a mix of vets and rookies, who make up my favorite targets in 2022 drafts.

Quarterbacks​

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Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (current ADP: QB4)

I've been targeting Jackson much earlier due to the rushing totals and the opportunities for explosive-play passes. In his three seasons as the primary starter, Jackson has averaged 70.9 rushing yards per game. He's the league's most electric player with the ball in his hands. Now, add in the play-action concepts out of multiple-tight end sets -- with Mark Andrews -- plus the anticipated second-year jump from receiver Rashod Bateman. Remember, the percentage of Jackson's attempts traveling 20-plus air yards has increased each season of his career. And this Ravens offense is set up to create open coverage voids on seams or deep overs.



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Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (current ADP: QB10)

Burrow is a timing-and-rhythm thrower with high-end pocket movement. I can get him late in 10- or 12-team leagues and still feel strongly about the quarterback position in my lineup. Last season, in 16 games played, Burrow logged 4,611 yards passing with 34 touchdowns. And he was dialed in on intermediate/deep-ball throws, posting a league-best on-target rate of 78.9% last season (15-plus air yards). With an upgraded offensive front, plus the league's best wide receiver unit of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, I believe Burrow can post midtier QB1 numbers this season.

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Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers (current ADP: QB13)

There's some risk in taking Lance, given his lack of starting experience. We know that. But I'm going to bet on his dual-threat skills and the ability of Kyle Shanahan to scheme for the quarterback. In the three games last season in which Lance saw extended playing time, he posted at least 14.6 fantasy points in each game, rushed for 131 total yards and posted multiple touchdown throws twice. Take the upside of Lance in an offense that will feature designed rush schemes, defined play-action throws and the scripted deep balls. I think Lance can help you win your league, at a great ADP value.


Running backs​

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Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (current ADP: RB3)

I hold the No. 2 overall pick in my big, PPR home league, and I'm leaning toward taking Ekeler there. We know he has the dynamic pass-catching traits (216 receptions over his past three seasons), and he's coming off a career-high 206 carries in 2021, which included 46 red zone attempts. Even if Ekeler sees a slight reduction in total volume this season, I am encouraged by the receiving talent/deployment and the low-red zone opportunities for a back with three-down ability -- in a potent offensive system led by quarterback Justin Herbert.

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Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (current ADP: RB12)

We know that Melvin Gordon III is still in the mix for the Broncos. However, Williams is slated to see an increase in touches, and with quarterback Russell Wilson upgrading this entire Denver offense, I'm targeting the second-year pro as a mid-to-low-tier RB1. I love the running style here. Williams averaged 2.57 yards after first contact last season. Plus, let's not sleep on Williams' receiving numbers. He caught 43 passes as a rookie, and that total should rise this season in an improved offense with proven quarterback play.

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Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (current ADP: RB23)

Etienne has been one of my top RB2 targets this summer (after missing the 2021 season), given his anticipated utilization as a receiving back with zone running skills in Doug Pederson's offense. Yes, Etienne will see his workload reduced some when James Robinson is cleared to play for the Jags. However, Etienne caught 85 passes in his final two seasons at Clemson, and we know he has explosive traits as a runner. He's a back with real PPR upside for a Jags team that should be more efficient on offense with second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

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AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (current ADP: RB32)

I like Dillon as a potential flex in my lineup for a Green Bay offense for which the run game will be a foundational piece this season. In '21, Dillon saw 174 carries, with all five of his rushing scores coming on red zone attempts. Expect an increase in total touches here, which includes Dillon as a screen/swing target for quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the pass game. And, if starter Aaron Jones were to spend some time on the shelf this season, the 6-foot, 247-pound Dillon would vault into the midtier RB2 range.

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James Cook, Buffalo Bills (current ADP: RB38)

Cook is a later-round target for me due to the pass-catching upside he brings to the Bills' high-scoring offense. He can flex to the slot, or shake linebackers in coverage on backfield releases. Plus, Cook can press the ball to the edge on perimeter-run schemes. He has the speed to get loose there. While Cook will most likely play a rotational role with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss in Buffalo, I want the Georgia product on my roster. Cook accounted for more 1,000 yards of total offense on a national championship team last season, and he has the traits of a third-down, change-of-pace back with some PPR juice.

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Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans (current ADP: RB42)

There's a real opportunity here for Pierce to win the No. 1 job in Houston, given his impressive training camp and recent preseason tape. While Pierce wasn't utilized as the primary back in college at Florida last season, he broke 20 tackles and rushed for 13 scores on just 100 carries. That's his physical profile at 5-foot-10, 218 pounds, plus the combination of light feet and short-area burst. He has a pro running style. Pierce should be a target in all scoring formats, with more upside as a volume runner in non-PPR leagues.


Wide receivers​

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Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (current ADP: WR9)

A consistent and proven chain-mover with elite route-running ability, Allen is always one of my top PPR targets as the No. 1 receiver for Justin Herbert. The veteran saw 157 targets last season and has logged 100 or more receptions in four of his past five seasons. The scheme in L.A. will create open voids for Allen versus zone coverage, and he's still one of the best in the league at uncovering on third downs. While Allen isn't going to post high-end touchdown numbers, the total target volume here -- with five to six scores on the season -- puts him in the WR1 mix.

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DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (current ADP: WR18)

I wrote about Metcalf earlier this summer because the fantasy outlook is cloudy without Russell Wilson under center for the Seahawks. Given his current ADP, however, I'm more than willing to bet on Metcalf's rare physical tools at the position, as I did in our most recent mock draft. Metcalf has finished as a top-15 wide receiver in two straight seasons, and his size/speed combo shows up in the Seattle route structure as a vertical/end zone target. Will there be some down weeks for Metcalf this season with Geno Smith or Drew Lock at QB? Probably. But I can roll with those knowing that Metcalf has breakout-game potential as a WR2 in all scoring formats.

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Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills (current ADP: WR29)

We've all seen and read the offseason hype with Davis. And I think it's legit. Davis enters the 2022 season as a breakout candidate, and he'll be the No. 2 target for Josh Allen opposite of Stefon Diggs. We can point to the tape from the AFC divisional playoff game versus Kansas City, where Davis caught 8 of 10 targets for 201 yards and four touchdowns. Or look at his red zone usage last season, as Davis saw 16 targets inside the 20-yard line, catching five touchdown passes. At 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, he's a big-framed option for Allen, who will also make second-reaction throws to the third level to create vertical opportunities for Davis.

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JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs (current ADP: WR32)

Smith-Schuster gives the Chiefs an added element to the offense: He's a physical slot target who will work the dirty areas of the field. And I think he's more dynamic after the catch than he's given credit for. With a 111-catch season already on his career résumé, Smith-Schuster now pairs up with Patrick Mahomes in Andy Reid's West Coast/spread system. And it was Mahomes who posted an 86.1% on-target rate to the slot last season. Smith-Schuster is a prime target in my PPR leagues, as I think he can produce as a high-ceiling flex/WR3 this season.


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Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (current ADP: WR37)

Looking at the rookie out of USC, I'm anticipating consistent volume in an offense in which London will pair with tight end Kyle Pitts as one of the top targets in the Falcons' pass game. Even with an underwhelming quarterback situation, we have to focus on how London will be utilized in Arthur Smith's offense. He'll play as a big slot, boundary X or run the deep in-breakers on play-action throws. In his final college season, London hauled in 88 passes and topped 1,000 yards receiving -- in just eight games. So, bet on the 6-foot-4 pass-catcher here as a seam-stretcher/red zone option who could see more than 100 targets this season.

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George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (current ADP: WR56)

With the prototypical size and skills of a No. 1 wide receiver, Pickens is a player I'm looking to grab in the later rounds. On his 90 career receptions at Georgia, Pickens averaged 15 yards per catch. And he has the long frame and body control at 6-foot-3 to win matchups. While I'll have to monitor the developmental track of Pickens at the start of the season, there's value here to add him to the roster. If he can carve out a regular role in the Steelers' offense, I believe he can produce WR3 numbers as an isolation target with vertical stretch ability.


Tight ends​

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Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (current ADP: TE8)

Staying with my strategy of drafting tight ends late, Goedert has been one of my most consistent targets this summer in 10- and 12-team leagues, given his current ADP and the route-running ability he brings to the Philly offense. Last season, Goedert was targeted on 24.1% of routes run, which was higher than the rate of Atlanta's Kyle Pitts (22.7%). And that target rate jumped to 37.5% on play-action throws. Now the unquestioned No. 1 tight end in Philly, Goedert joins A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in an upgraded Eagles pass game. And if Goedert sees an uptick in red zone opportunities, he can produce top-five tight end numbers this season.

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Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (current ADP: TE11)

As a rookie in 2021, Freiermuth caught all seven of his touchdowns on red zone throws -- and he logged seven games with multiple red zone targets, which led all NFL tight ends. Expect to see the big-framed Freiermuth (6-foot-5, 258 pounds) used on seams, flexed alignments or quicks, where he can simply box out defenders in the end zone. While a scoring regression is possible for Freiermuth this season, expect the Steelers to be much more multiple on offense with quarterbacks Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. Play-action, movement and boot. Higher-percentage throws to the tight end and opportunities to get Freiermuth loose on inside verticals.

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Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (current ADP: TE15)

Kmet has been my offseason sleeper at the position due to an anticipated increase in red zone volume. Last season, Kmet saw a total of just six end zone targets and didn't record a single touchdown reception. Look for those numbers to climb this year with the departure of veteran tight end Jimmy Graham and the Bears' lack of a true post-up target in scoring position. Remember, Kmet caught 60 of 93 targets last season, mostly on schemed play-action, inside seams and unders. We will see more of that this year, especially when quarterback Justin Fields gets to the edge. And if the scoring production jumps, Kmet has a shot to post TE1 numbers.
 

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Fantasy football weekend wrap: Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields makes some strides​

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Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields threw only seven passes in each of the first two preseason games, leading one of his four drives to a field goal. He wasn't expected to suit up for his team's preseason finale against the Cleveland Browns. That early "performance" didn't exactly get Bears fans or fantasy managers excited. Fields, who had a rather disappointing rookie season leading a mess of an offense, wasn't so popular in fantasy leagues, either. He entered this past weekend rostered in just 36% of ESPN standard leagues -- an afterthought of a late-round pick in some leagues.

Will anything change after Fields actually played on Saturday, completing 14 of 16 passes for 156 yards and three touchdowns in the first half of a 21-20 win? At the very least, Fields might make fantasy managers in deeper leagues start considering him. Bears fans have to be more excited today. We know the No. 11 pick in the 2021 draft out of Ohio State provides value with his legs. Fields rushed for 420 yards in his rookie season, and ESPN Fantasy projects him to have 602 rushing yards this season, a figure topped by only three quarterbacks -- each of whom is a top-10 fantasy QB. These fellows don't need to throw like Joe Montana to be fantasy stars.

Fields also did things with his arm on Saturday, Sure, he had the luxury of playing with other members of the first-team offense in a weekend in which many projected starters around the league did not suit up at all. Still, he looked confident, mature and, perhaps most of all, properly protected. He showed accuracy and quick decision-making. Fields found a lightly double-covered Ryan Griffin for a 22-yard touchdown in the first quarter, capably led wide receiver Dante Pettis on a 12-yarder in the corner of the end zone to open the second and finished things off by finding a wide-open Cole Kmet for a 24-yard score. Fields was efficient and composed. He threw well out of the pocket but rushed only twice. He wasn't forced to run, which is notable.

It just seems a bit odd how San Francisco 49ers sophomore QB Trey Lance, who barely played in his rookie season, is going so much earlier than Fields in ESPN average draft position. Lance played on the first three drives in his team's preseason finale against the Houston Texans on Thursday -- also with starters around him -- and threw for a mere 49 yards. Nobody should hold that performance against him, either, but Lance is far from a finished product. Everyone presumes he is the superior pick to Fields in fantasy, and perhaps he is, but it is hardly guaranteed and it shouldn't be just because one of them struggled as a rookie.

Don't judge Fields too harshly based on his rookie season. He has a new coach (Matt Eberflus) and offensive coordinator (Luke Getsy) and on Saturday we finally saw some on-field positives. Perhaps the team's dysfunctional offense is history. The Bears did Fields few favors in his rookie season, mainly with terrible blocking, odd playcalling and how they limited his running ability, at least early on. Then the franchise added nobody of clear consequence to the offense this past offseason -- no dynamic wide receiver or obvious playmaker.

Perhaps it was unnecessary. Perhaps all the offense needs is for Fields to have better coaching, mature a bit and play better. After all, David Montgomery can be an RB1. Darnell Mooney can be a WR2. Perhaps Kmet is a TE1. It comes down to Fields making strides. This past weekend, it finally looked like he had.

Other quarterbacks in the news​


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Running quarterbacks offer something unique in fantasy, and dynasty managers need to keep an eye on the Tennessee Titans and Malik Willis. Ryan Tannehill is the obvious starter, but we seldom see talk of him being replaced. Why not? Frankly, this reminds me of how quickly Lamar Jackson moved up to start for the Baltimore Ravens.

Willis, the third-round draft pick from Liberty, looked fantastic against the Arizona Cardinals this past weekend, not only picking backup defenders apart with his arm but delivering a highlight-reel 50-yard run and ending up with 79 rushing yards on four attempts. Quarterbacks who can run this way, such as Jackson, are special. I don't think the Titans are in any hurry to switch starting quarterbacks, but if Tannehill struggles -- and he did last season -- they must. Willis might be Jalen Hurts in a year.


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The Seattle Seahawks announced veteran Geno Smith as their starting quarterback, and perhaps investors of WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett groaned a bit, but whom did you want? Drew Lock? No, you did not. And, by the way, while it was a small sample size, Metcalf actually produced better statistics last season with Smith as the quarterback rather than Russell Wilson. Top, healthy receivers tend to get their numbers as long as any semi-competent passer is back there. Just look at the career of Brandin Cooks or that of Allen Robinson II (pre-2021). Some combination of Smith/Lock can still make Metcalf a WR2 and Lockett a WR3. Don't overthink it.

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Tua Tagovailoa's ADP might rise quite a bit after his weekend performance against the Philadelphia Eagles' third-string defenders, as the Miami Dolphins scored 48 points. Tagovailoa completed 6 of 7 passes for 121 yards, including a 51-yarder to a wide-open Tyreek Hill on the first play from scrimmage. Tagovailoa is the No. 16 quarterback in ESPN ADP, and there is a case to make for him to move up a bit, but then again, who drops? Minnesota Vikings starter Kirk Cousins has had top-12 finishes in consecutive seasons. He didn't play in any game this month because he didn't need to. Derek Carr gets to throw to Davante Adams. Lance should be fine. There is so much quarterback depth. You should play in a 2-QB or superflex format. Otherwise, you're wasting the QB depth.
 

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Fantasy football 2022 Week 1 shadow report: Key WR/CB matchups​

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By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play during the NFL season. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start decisions and fantasy advice each week. Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can also help you make the best waiver-wire pickups.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders whom the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

Unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjusts to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.


Advantageous matchups​

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Chiefs' Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Cardinals' Marco Wilson, Byron Murphy Jr. and Trayvon Mullen Jr.

The Chiefs may no longer have Tyreek Hill, but the new-look WR room will be set up with a great Week 1 matchup against an Arizona team that didn't do a well-enough job improving its cornerback room during the offseason. Murphy returns as the team's No. 1 option, as well as the primary slot man, and second-year player Wilson is again going to have a big role with Antonio Hamilton on IR. Mullen was acquired from the Raiders in late August and likely will need to immediately play an every-down role. Murphy and Wilson were the top corners in an Arizona secondary that allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season, and Mullen was targeted on a massive 25% of his 112 coverage snaps in Las Vegas. This is one of the shakiest CB rooms in the league, which will benefit Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling, Hardman and rookie Skyy Moore. Upgrade them across the board.



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Broncos' Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler vs. Seahawks' Artie Burns, Justin Coleman and Sidney Jones IV

Seattle is in transition and the offseason roster turnover included the departure of top corner D.J. Reed. With Reed gone and Tre Brown on the physically unable to perform list, the Seahawks are left with Jones and Burns outside, old friend Coleman manning the slot and rookies Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen also in the mix for work. The Seahawks slowed wide receivers well in 2021, but it's hard to imagine a repeat performance from this patchwork group. Sutton, Jeudy and Hamler are in a good spot in what will be Russell Wilson's Denver debut and -- if you're into narratives -- a "revenge" game against his old squad.

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Jaguars' Christian Kirk vs. Commanders' Benjamin St-Juste (slot)

Perhaps St-Juste will make a leap in his second season, but the 2021 third-round pick was heavily targeted and struggled in coverage on 178 coverage snaps as a rookie. St-Juste aligned outside on 98% of those plays, which is notable considering he's expected to man the slot between Kendall Fuller and William Jackson III in 2022. That's enough evidence to think Kirk (79% slot with Arizona in 2021) is set up for a big day in his debut as Trevor Lawrence's top target. Washington allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers in 2021, though it was better in the second half of the season.

Other notable upgrades:

Eagles' DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins and A.J. Brown vs. Lions' Amani Oruwariye, Will Harris and Jeff Okudah (Detroit shadowed about half the time in 2021 but not against the Eagles in Week 8.)

Bengals' Tyler Boyd vs. Steelers' Art Maulet (slot)


Tough matchups​

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Bills' Stefon Diggs vs. Rams' Jalen Ramsey (shadow)

Ramsey plays the unconventional "star" position for the Rams' defense, but sometimes being the star means traveling with the opposing team's top receiver. We saw Ramsey do exactly that often last season, including, at least, shadowing part time against DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans and Ja'Marr Chase. It's unlikely we'll see Ramsey on Diggs full time, but somewhere in the 60% range wouldn't be a shock. Despite Ramsey putting together another great campaign, the Rams allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs, and that was before Darious Williams' departure. There's no need to panic on Diggs here, but a slight downgrade is sensible. Gabriel Davis (vs. Williams' replacement, David Long) and slot man Isaiah McKenzie (vs. Troy Hill) can be upgraded slightly.

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Lions' DJ Chark, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds vs. Eagles' James Bradberry, Avonte Maddox and Darius Slay

The Eagles allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers overall and to the perimeter last season. And that was before acquiring star perimeter corner Bradberry during the offseason. Philadelphia now has two of the league's busiest and most prominent shadow corners on the perimeter, with Maddox covering the slot after a strong 2021. Slay shadowed in eight games last season and it's certainly possible he and Bradberry are assigned one of Detroit's outside receivers (Chark or Reynolds), but playing sides seems more likely. St. Brown (78% slot in 2021) will see a lot of Maddox inside. Downgrade Detroit's receivers.

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Texans' Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett and Brandin Cooks vs. Colts' Isaiah Rodgers, Kenny Moore II and Stephon Gilmore

The Colts didn't shadow in 2021, but new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley did often with the Chargers and Raiders, so it's possible top corner Gilmore travels with Cooks, at least when he's on the perimeter (60% of routes in 2021). The Colts were below average against outside receivers last season, but Gilmore played at a high level in Carolina, and he and new running mate Moore (who also handles the slot) make for a quality duo. Consider lowering expectations for Cooks and fellow perimeter receiver Collins (84%) a bit this week.

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Chargers' Keenan Allen vs. Raiders' Nate Hobbs (slot)

The backgrounds of coach Josh McDaniels (Patriots) and DC Patrick Graham (Giants) suggest the Raiders will shadow, at least, sometimes, but it's unclear how they'll deploy their top corners. For this week, we should expect newcomers Anthony Averett and Rock Ya-Sin on Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer outside, with star slot CB Hobbs on Allen (65% slot in 2021) most of the time. Allen struggled in two games against Las Vegas in 2021, totaling a 13-88-0 receiving line on 19 targets. He managed only 23 yards on three targets on 32 routes against Hobbs. The Raiders allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the slot in 2021, so we're downgrading Allen here. Williams and Palmer can be upgraded against Averett and Ya-Sin.

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Saints' Michael Thomas and Chris Olave vs. Falcons' A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward

Terrell and newcomer Hayward are both coming off terrific 2021 seasons and set up Atlanta with the potential for a terrific perimeter defense this season. Last season, Terrell lined up at left corner 90% of the time, shadowing only once, and Hayward shadowed occasionally with the Raiders. It's unlikely that Terrell will travel with Thomas, though he did follow him when both were last active together (Week 13 in 2020). Granted, Terrell was a rookie and didn't make a leap until last season, but Thomas posted a healthy 9-105-0 receiving line on 11 targets in that game (6-72-0 on 24 routes against Terrell). Regardless, Terrell and Hayward are both terrific and could provide a bit of a roadblock to big fantasy days for Saints outside receivers Thomas and Olave. New Orleans slot man Jarvis Landry draws Darren Hall in the slot and can be upgraded.

Other notable downgrades:

Jets' Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Corey Davis vs. Ravens' Marcus Peters, Kyle Fuller and Marlon Humphrey


Week 1 Sawdust​

Week 1 is always a major learning experience, as we're getting our first look at teams during the regular season. That being the case, I decided to attack this week slightly different than usual since we're left with fewer clear-cut matchups. Below are notes, nuggets, thoughts and potential matchups on a majority of the games not previously discussed. This should help you break some ties when setting lineups this weekend.

The Saints' Marshon Lattimore often shadows clear No. 1 wide receivers, so it's possible he follows the Falcons' Drake London. That would be a tough matchup, but London figures to align all over the field, and the Saints' secondary as a whole is pretty good, so we don't need any additional downgrade.

Browns CB Denzel Ward shadowed on and off throughout 2021, though usually it was on a part-time basis (Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Justin Jefferson, Tim Patrick, Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson). There's a chance he follows the Panthers' DJ Moore on a majority of his perimeter routes (81% in 2021), and Cleveland was great against outside receivers last season (fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed), but there's no need for a major adjustment here.

The Panthers' Donte Jackson shadowed on and off throughout last season, so it's possible he'll travel with Browns WR Amari Cooper (likely part time) this week. Carolina struggled against the perimeter last season and Jaycee Horn is back, so the Panthers might simply stick to playing sides. If anything, Cooper can be upgraded a tiny bit.

Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis III often shadows opposing No. 1 receivers, but (a) he didn't shadow against Dallas in Week 1 last season and (b) CeeDee Lamb aligns inside a lot (41% in 2021) while Davis (5%) does not. Perhaps Davis will follow Lamb on his outside routes, but it won't be close to full time, so there's not much reason for concern here.

The Vikings shadowed only twice last season and both featured Patrick Peterson against the Packers' Davante Adams. Of course, Adams is gone and Allen Lazard isn't as intimidating of a No. 1 receiver. Also, it's a new Vikings coaching staff, and while Kevin O'Connell comes from the shadow-heavy Rams' coaching tree, new Vikings DC Ed Donatell almost never shadowed with Denver the past few seasons. Expect Minnesota to play sides this week. Minnesota allowed the most fantasy points to the position in 2021, but Green Bay's receivers shouldn't be upgraded against this new-look scheme.

Bills star CB Tre'Davious White (ACL) will miss Weeks 1-4, which means he won't be in the lineup against the Rams this week. Buffalo allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers overall and to the perimeter last season, but with no White or Levi Wallace (signed with the Steelers), they'll be relying on Dane Jackson and likely rookie Kaiir Elam on the outside. We don't need to worry about Rams outside receivers Van Jefferson or Allen Robinson II here, and though Taron Johnson is a terrific slot corner, we're obviously starting Cooper Kupp (66% slot) with confidence.

The Chargers won't have new top CB J.C. Jackson this week, but they matched up often without him in 2021, including both games against the Raiders. Michael Davis shadowed Darren Waller on 17 of his 24 perimeter routes in those games and the corners matched up with receivers occasionally. We might see some of that this week, but it's not a major concern. Waller (6-72-1 receiving line in the two games) and Hunter Renfrow (10-58-3) were both productive against the Chargers, and Davante Adams just adds to the Raiders' firepower.

The Patriots have shadowed in most games since I started tracking in 2015, but a majority of it was by J.C. Jackson, Stephon Gilmore, Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan. Do the Patriots turn to Jalen Mills as their top shadow CB in 2021? Perhaps, but it might not matter much this week since versatile Tyreek Hill is all but "un-shadowable." New England did not travel full time in its past meetings with the Chiefs, and while Mills did shadow Waddle on his perimeter routes in Week 18 last season, that was before Hill's arrival. We don't need to downgrade Miami's receivers here, even against a Patriots defense that allowed the third-fewest fantasy points overall to the perimeter and to the slot in 2021.

The Packers' Jaire Alexander could travel with the Vikings' Justin Jefferson, as he did in Week 8 back in 2020, but Jefferson moves around enough that it likely won't be full time. Granted, Alexander missed both 2021 meetings, but Jefferson had little trouble against the Packers, posting a 14-227-2 receiving line on 22 targets in the two games. Green Bay's defense is loaded, so there's some reason for pause with Minnesota's offense, but we're obviously firing up Jefferson with confidence.

The Dolphins' Xavien Howard shadowed a few times last season, and he's Miami's clear No. 1 corner with running mate Byron Jones (IR) sidelined. Of course, with New England operating a bit of a wide receiver by committee, it seems unlikely that Howard would shadow. Downgrade Patriots slot man Jakobi Meyers slightly against Nik Needham. Meyers totaled a 10-114-0 receiving line on 18 targets in two games against Miami in 2021, including a 2-8-0 line on six targets against Needham. The Dolphins allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the slot in 2021.

When the Steelers and Bengals met in Week 12 last season, Chidobe Awuzie shadowed Diontae Johnson and Eli Apple shadowed Chase Claypool until removed in what was a blowout. Both Steelers had respectable days going (99 combined yards) before the starters departed. Perhaps the Bengals will match up again, but Claypool (now manning the slot) will see more of Mike Hilton, leaving Johnson and George Pickens to deal with Awuzie and Apple. We don't need to downgrade anyone here.

The Bears' Jaylon Johnson did not shadow against the 49ers in 2021, and new coach Matt Eberflus did not shadow when he was the DC of the Colts. That said, Johnson figures to play his side against San Francisco this week. Top Niners receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are in a decent spot against Johnson, Kindle Vildor and rookie Kyler Gordon this week.


The Cowboys and Buccaneers will meet in Week 1 for the second year in a row. In last season's showdown, Trevon Diggs shadowed Mike Evans (37/47 overall, 28/28 perimeter, 9/19 slot), and Anthony Brown shadowed Antonio Brown (27/36 overall, 26/32 perimeter). Evans had a down game (3-24-0 receiving line), but Brown (5-121-1), Chris Godwin (9-105-1) and even Rob Gronkowski (8-90-2) had big games. Diggs figures to shadow Evans again (he traveled in seven games last season), but he struggled in coverage enough that it's tough to be too worried about a repeat dud from Evans.

The Giants shadowed a ton last season, but a lot of that was getting top corner James Bradberry on the opposing No. 1 WR. With Bradberry out, it's possible Adoree' Jackson steps into that role and covers Titans' Robert Woods this week, but especially with a new coaching staff in place, that's far from certain. Woods can be started as you normally would.

Jaguars CB Shaquill Griffin shadowed often in 2021, but new coach Doug Pederson's Eagles didn't shadow until they acquired Darius Slay in his final year with the team. Griffin and free agent addition Darious Williams (who is expected to man the slot in nickel) might play sides in this one, but even if Griffin shadows the Commanders' Terry McLaurin, it's not a concern.
 

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Wagerallsports

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Fantasy football flex and superflex rankings 2022: Week 1​

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Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL season and the first edition of our weekly PPR fantasy football superflex rankings for 2022. We know many of you now compete in superflex formats that invite/covet second quarterbacks in starting lineups, so these rankings account for that. It may look odd to see the lowest-ranked fantasy passers ranked ahead of typical RB2 and WR2 options, but the potential scoring impact demands it. If your league is of the standard flex variety, just ignore the presence of quarterbacks. Regardless, good luck in Week 1 and beyond!

1. Josh Allen, Buf (QB1): Tough matchup with Super Bowl champs, but Allen's the best fantasy option for the throwing and running ability.

2. Patrick Mahomes, KC (QB2): Will be interesting to see which receivers he targets with Tyreek Hill gone. This ranking shows no worry.

3. Lamar Jackson, Bal (QB3): Let's assume he will be plenty motivated this season, regardless of opponent.

4. Justin Herbert, LAC (QB4)

5. Jalen Hurts, Phi (QB5): They gave him a No. 1 wide receiver, so he must improve as a passer. He should.

6. Jonathan Taylor, Ind (RB1): He's my No. 1 pick in standard PPR and non-PPR drafts, as quarterbacks slide. Another big season is coming.

7. Christian McCaffrey, Car (RB2): Well, he's healthy today. Hey, if we knew he'd play 'em all, he'd be the No. 1 pick. Ten games out of 33 the past two years! Ten!

8. Kyler Murray, Ari (QB6)

9. Russell Wilson, Den (QB7): Underrated this season, and of course he starts his new era by facing his former franchise. Of course.

10. Tom Brady, TB (QB8): Age is but a number. And lots of numbers are coming this season.

11. Aaron Rodgers, GB (QB9): As with Mahomes, there's someone missing. Unlike Mahomes, there's no dominant tight end to throw to here.

12. Cooper Kupp, LAR (WR1): Well, we cannot expect those 2021 numbers again, but he should be awesome anyway.

13. Justin Jefferson, Min (WR2)
14. Dak Prescott, Dal (QB10)

15. Joe Burrow, Cin (QB11): Healthy enough for us to rely on him again. It's a tremendous offense and he's done fine versus the Steelers in the past.

16. Ja'Marr Chase, Cin (WR3)

17. Derrick Henry, Ten (RB3): Better in non-PPR formats, but still, the offense revolves around Henry and he is healthy.

18. Davante Adams, LV (WR4): A new home, but lots of targets coming his way. This one could be a high-scoring affair.

19. Austin Ekeler, LAC (RB4)
20. Joe Mixon, Cin (RB5)

21. Trey Lance, SF (QB12): Pressure is on right away, since Jimmy G returns. Lance has the ability to be a top-10 QB in fantasy ... even at Chicago.

22. Dalvin Cook, Min (RB6)

23. Matthew Stafford, LAR (QB13): Don't worry about the elbow. The Rams say he's fine and we always believe the teams. OK, he's probably mostly fine.

24. Alvin Kamara, NO (RB7)

25. Kirk Cousins, Min (QB14): Underrated. Look up his numbers versus the Packers and we can rely on him.

26. Najee Harris, Pit (RB8): Change in QBs really shouldn't change his outlook. Tons of touches coming his way.

27. Derek Carr, LV (QB15)
28. Leonard Fournette, TB (RB9)

29. Tua Tagovailoa, Mia (QB16): Adding Hill has to help, but let's also assume the Patriots know how to deal with this offense.

30. James Conner, Ari (RB10): Assume some TD regression this season, but not necessarily in Week 1.

31. Deebo Samuel, SF (WR5)
32. CeeDee Lamb, Dal (WR6)

33. Jameis Winston, NO (QB17): Not someone to rely on in standard, 10-team formats, but underrated in the deeper ones.

34. Stefon Diggs, Buf (WR7): Wide receiver is deep, and in superflex you must look at QBs first, and then the small group of reliable RBs. Then it's WR.

35. Ryan Tannehill, Ten (QB18)

36. Justin Fields, Chi (QB19): Seems odd that so many people assume he cannot break out. He can!

37. Daniel Jones, NYG (QB20): Seems odd that ... no, I can't finish that sentence.

38. Tyreek Hill, Mia (WR8)
39. Matt Ryan, Ind (QB21)

40. Nick Chubb, Cle (RB11): Some want him ranked higher, but this is PPR and he is not much of a receiver out of this backfield.

41. Trevor Lawrence, Jax (QB22): He's going to surprise people. You knew he was good. Now he has functional coaching.

42. A.J. Brown, Phi (WR9): May not produce WR1 numbers every game, but his presence affects others.

43. Javonte Williams, Den (RB12): His split in touches will be one of the major things to watch in September.

44. Michael Pittman Jr., Ind (WR10)
45. D'Andre Swift, Det (RB13)
46. Tee Higgins, Cin (WR11)
47. Aaron Jones, GB (RB14)

48. Mitch Trubisky, Pit (QB23): You know, he may not be as bad as so many people think. He just needs to be consistent and competent. He can do that.

49. Carson Wentz, Wsh (QB24): Consistent and competent. Hmmm. Well, maybe!

50. Marcus Mariota, Atl (QB25): Certainly capable of adding value with his legs, which helps in fantasy. One bad game, however, and he may be replaced.

51. Saquon Barkley, NYG (RB15)

52. Travis Etienne Jr., Jax (RB16): Yeah, I view him as a Barkley type, only he didn't completely shred a knee a few seasons ago. Thumbs up.

53. Mark Andrews, Bal (TE1)

54. Travis Kelce, KC (TE2): May be interesting to see how defenses pay more attention to him now. Not that we're too worried.

55. Keenan Allen, LAC (WR12)
56. Elijah Mitchell, SF (RB17)

57. DJ Moore, Car (WR13): Produces the numbers every season, and it's not like he's had Joe Montana throwing to him over the years. He'll be fine.

58. Mac Jones, NE (QB26): Bill Belichick doesn't care about your fantasy team. Perhaps we should write this every week.

59. Geno Smith, Sea (QB27): He's starting at QB and QBs score more fantasy points than most RBs. Even the average QBs.

60. Jared Goff, Det (QB28)
61. Jacoby Brissett, Cle (QB29)

62. Baker Mayfield, Car (QB30): Gets to host his former teammates. A big performance would hardly shock us.

63. Antonio Gibson, Wsh (RB18): Unfortunate Brian Robinson situation gives Gibson opportunity to start, but for how long?

64. Ezekiel Elliott, Dal (RB19)
65. Diontae Johnson, Pit (WR14)

66. David Montgomery, Chi (RB20): Few seem to be talking about a potential timeshare here, so we shall see if it happens.

67. Marquise Brown, Ari (WR15)
68. Terry McLaurin, Wsh (WR16)
69. Mike Evans, TB (WR17)

70. Chris Godwin, TB (WR18): Bucs have enough depth to ease him back from ACL tear, but it appears they're not doing that.

71. Davis Mills, Hou (QB31)

72. Joe Flacco, NYJ (QB32): Perhaps it's Zach Wilson, the preferred option, who starts instead. If so, Wilson would rank better than this.

73. Miles Sanders, Phi (RB21): Watch him score a touchdown in Game 1, after not scoring all last season. Football, amiright?

74. Mike Williams, LAC (WR19)

75. Josh Jacobs, LV (RB22): Everyone seems to expect fewer snaps than last season, but who will take them?

76. Rashaad Penny, Sea (RB23): Played well last season, but still, everyone wants to see the rookie. We may not see the rookie this week.

77. Cam Akers, LAR (RB24)
78. Courtland Sutton, Den (WR20)

79. Jerry Jeudy, Den (WR21): Here come the Broncos wide receivers with Wilson leading the way! Could mark these guys as 1 and 1A.

80. Damien Harris, NE (RB25)
81. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (RB26)
82. Chase Edmonds, Mia (RB27)

83. Dameon Pierce, Hou (RB28): First rookie runner on our board. Expectations are for high volume.

84. DK Metcalf, Sea (WR22): Probably went a bit too late in drafts. Geno Smith is not a rookie. He's competent.

85. Breece Hall, NYJ (RB29)

86. Brandin Cooks, Hou (WR23): Gets the numbers every season, so not much to worry about.

87. Jaylen Waddle, Mia (WR24): Lower-body injury of some sort has us a bit worried.

88. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det (WR25)

89. Elijah Moore, NYJ (WR26): Well, we'd prefer Wilson over Flacco for this breakout option, but either way, he's really good.

90. Kareem Hunt, Cle (RB30)
91. DeVonta Smith, Phi (WR27)

92. J.K. Dobbins, Bal (RB31): Seems odd the Ravens would push him as he recovers from ACL tear. They have veteran depth.

93. Darnell Mooney, Chi (WR28): Certainly good enough to be a WR2 this season, and his QB is good enough, too.

94. Devin Singletary, Buf (RB32)
95. Gabe Davis, Buf (WR29)
96. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (RB33)

97. Adam Thielen, Min (WR30): The touchdown maker from last season returns to health.

98. Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl (RB34): Falcons could make this ranking look silly if they give him 20 touches. But will they?

99. AJ Dillon, GB (RB35): Packers could also make this ranking look silly for the same reason.

100. Tony Pollard, Dal (RB36): And then there is Dallas. Same thing. Pollard is really, really good. Just let him run!

101. Darren Waller, LV (TE3): Worry about his health over four months, but he should play this week.

102. Kyle Pitts, Atl (TE4)

103. George Kittle, SF (TE5): Same as with Waller. Can he play 17 games? Well, he can play well in Week 1.

104. JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC (WR31)
105. Chase Claypool, Pit (WR32)

106. Christian Kirk, Jax (WR33): I think Lawrence is going to easily surpass 4,000 passing yards, and Kirk eclipses 1,000.

107. Rashod Bateman, Bal (WR34)

108. J.D. McKissic, Wsh (RB37): Pass-catcher is dealing with a groin injury, so make sure he's going to be active.

109. Michael Carter, NYJ (RB38)

110. Melvin Gordon III, Den (RB39): Certainly got his numbers last season, but everyone assumes it's no longer a timeshare. We find out Monday.

111. Darrell Henderson Jr., LAR (RB40)

112. Raheem Mostert, Mia (RB41): Dynamic speedster is at least healthy today. Tomorrow, who knows?

113. Michael Thomas, NO (WR35): Welcome back. Maybe. Thomas is still seemingly not 100 percent healthy. It's not 2019.

114. Allen Robinson II, LAR (WR36): He's certainly in a better situation than last season.

115. Brandon Aiyuk, SF (WR37)

116. Hunter Renfrow, LV (WR38): Addition of Adams unlikely to help him, but it doesn't destroy his value, either.

117. Tyler Lockett, Sea (WR39)

118. Amari Cooper, Cle (WR40): Well, Brissett is obviously not Dak Prescott.

119. Dalton Schultz, Dal (TE6)
120. Dallas Goedert, Phi (TE7)

121. T.J. Hockenson, Det (TE8): Eagles linebackers appear improved, but Hockenson should get enough targets to matter.

122. Zach Ertz, Ari (TE9): Wasn't healthy in August, so Cardinals could play it safe here.

123. Nyheim Hines, Ind (RB42)
124. Jamaal Williams, Det (RB43)

125. Mike Davis, Bal (RB44): Potential Week 1 starter if Dobbins is out, but still not likely to star.

126. James Robinson, Jax (RB45): Team says he will play, and remember how relevant Robinson can be.

127. Damien Williams, Atl (RB46): Most assume the rookie more than 20 spots lower will get plenty of run, but Williams is a deep-league factor, too.

128. Allen Lazard, GB (WR41)
129. Robert Woods, Ten (WR42)

130. Kadarius Toney, NYG (WR43): So talented, but can he overcome the quarterback play?

131. Rondale Moore, Ari (WR44)

132. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC (WR45): Someone has to catch the passes at wide receiver here.

133. Mark Ingram II, NO (RB47): As long as Kamara is suiting up, it's tough to rely on Ingram.

134. Drake London, Atl (WR46)
135. Chris Olave, NO (WR47)

136. Jalen Tolbert, Dal (WR48): Rookies, so many rookies! But this one may start out of the slot. Hmmm.

137. James Cook, Buf (RB48)

138. Kenneth Gainwell, Phi (RB49): Would not be at all surprising if he and Sanders split the touches evenly. Make sure Gainwell is rostered before Sunday.


139. Rex Burkhead, Hou (RB50): Considerably older than teammate Pierce, so a timeshare is more unlikely.

140. Mecole Hardman, KC (WR49)
141. Jahan Dotson, Wsh (WR50)

142. Pat Freiermuth, Pit (TE10): Little reason to believe Steelers stop looking his way in the red zone.

143. Hunter Henry, NE (TE11)
144. Dawson Knox, Buf (TE12)
145. Jakobi Meyers, NE (WR51)

146. Marvin Jones Jr., Jax (WR52): Veteran should see enough targets for deep-leaguers.

147. DJ Chark, Det (WR53)

148. Tyler Allgeier, Atl (RB51): Rookie didn't have great preseason, so perhaps the Falcons will be patient with him early on.

149. Joshua Kelley, LAC (RB52)
150. Rachaad White, TB (RB53)
 

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Field Pass: CeeDee Lamb's value, backfield timeshares, Packers WRs among top Week 2 storylines​

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We had seven months to analyze -- and perhaps overanalyze -- every possible outcome, variable, prediction, occurrence, trend, you name it for Week 1 of the NFL season. I don't personally care to admit how much thought I put into Rashod Bateman's potential target share or field-stretching ability, but I'm here to tell you that if you, too, spent several hours pondering whether vacating 146 targets by trading away Marquise Brown could lead to a breakout season for Bateman, you aren't alone.

It's the nature of the sport that we love so much and the game that only elevates our love for the sport, as fantasy football gives us something to think and talk about all year round.

I say all of this to recognize that after spending seven months trying to get a read and grip on how we think things are going to play out, we now have seven days from Sunday of Week 1 until Sunday of Week 2 to decipher how many of those offseason thoughts truly matter.

My answer: a lot of them!

Even if you didn't predict that Robbie Anderson would be the highest-scoring Panther in Week 1, the top of the fantasy leaderboards look -- in large part -- like we expected them to: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen were the top two quarterbacks; Jonathan Taylor was the second-highest-scoring running back; Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp were the top three wide receivers; and Travis Kelce paced all tight ends in points. That offseason prep did work!

To quote Chazz Michael Michaels from the movie "Blades of Glory," however: "I am never satisfied!" So we won't rest on our laurels here at Field Pass Central. We're trying to get better by the week, and our goal in this week's column is to try our best to sort through the extremely tiny sample we have and figure out what we think is real, and what might not be, and track every top storyline in between.

The Dak Prescott impact​

The biggest Week 1 injury was Cowboys QB Dak Prescott breaking his thumb, an injury that could sideline him for up to eight weeks (the Cowboys currently hope Prescott could return after closer to four games, thus he will not be placed on injured reserve). That leaves those who roster Prescott in an immediate pickle and those who roster CeeDee Lamb in a state of discomfort.

Let's start with Dak and how to replace your quarterback, as there are a few names to consider that are available in approximately 60% of leagues. Carson Wentz chucked it 41 times in Week 1 and sailed past 300 yards with four touchdowns. While Wentz will have his follies, he has three bona fide receivers and Washington was above average in pass rate during neutral situations. Much of the same logic applies to New Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston, who was QB6 in Week 1, has three excellent receivers and plays on a team that had an identical pass rate in neutral situations as the Commanders. Wentz gets the Week 2 edge against the Lions, however, as Winston is a fade against a tough Bucs D.

Lamb's value takes a hit with Cooper Rush under center, as while his target share should remain robust (he had 11 in Week 1), Rush is an unquestionable downgrade from Prescott. Rush was released by the Cowboys during roster cutdowns and brought back on the practice squad -- he's a below-average backup. Lamb's talent and projected target share keep him as a fantasy starter, but the path to a top-five wide receiver season -- which seemed at least plausible in the preseason -- is gone now. I'm not as concerned about TE Dalton Schultz, as his average depth of target was just 6.0 yards in Week 1; the throws to Schultz are infrequently difficult ones, so he should be impacted less.

The tale of two receiver rooms​

While Mahomes showed no impact of not having Tyreek Hill around, Aaron Rodgers missed Davante Adams ... desperately. The Chiefs carved up the Cardinals, with JuJu Smith-Schuster (eight targets), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (six targets) and Mecole Hardman (four targets, one touchdown) starting and playing significant roles. While Smith-Schuster led the way in terms of opportunities and fantasy points, the others will have their weeks to shine in an offense with massive touchdown upside. Smith-Schuster is a top-25 play this week, but MVS and Hardman are justifiable dart throws in deeper leagues.

The Packers, meanwhile, were not good, as rookie Romeo Doubs paced all wideouts with just five targets, four catches and 37 yards. Fellow rookie Christian Watson dropped a would-be 75-yard touchdown on the team's opening play from scrimmage, as he earned the start opposite veteran Sammy Watkins. No Packers wideout played more than 67% of the snaps (Allen Lazard was out). It was an ugly day.

I'm not conceding hope, as the Packers were brutal in Week 1 of 2021 and bounced back; perhaps more importantly, the Packers could have their two starting offensive tackles back on the field this week after Rodgers was under siege and sacked four times in Week 1. This offense will figure it out, and my confidence that Lazard will be the most productive wideout was heightened after watching Week 1. They need him to be. I have him as WR36 for this week and believe both Doubs and Watson are holds on your roster.

Health report​

  • Chargers WR Keenan Allen left Week 1 with a hamstring injury that will cause him to miss Thursday night's battle with the Chiefs. Following Allen's injury, DeAndre Carter ran 14 routes while seeing four targets, catching three of them; Josh Palmer ran 17 routes while catching one of two targets seen. Here's the reality: When you play with Justin Herbert -- especially in a game we expect the team to throw it a ton -- you have a chance to post numbers. Herbert is absurdly good. But the other reality we saw in Week 1 from L.A. is that a lot of players got in the mix: Seven players saw exactly four targets, which included 10 going to tight ends and fullbacks. Mike Williams -- who has a Jekyll and Hyde nature to his game anyway -- remains the only lineup lock among pass-catchers, with Palmer as a WR4 with legitimate upside. He's a very talented player. Gerald Everett merits TE2 consideration.
  • The 49ers' run of bad injury luck persisted in Week 1, as running back Elijah Mitchell left their rain-soaked loss because of a knee injury and will miss around two months. Jeff Wilson Jr. took over as the lead back with Tyrion Davis-Price a healthy scratch. Wilson has had bright stretches before, as he finished the 2020 season with back-to-back games with 20-plus fantasy points. Last season, Wilson wasn't as efficient with his reps, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry with only eight targets total. That said, it's an effective running attack and Wilson figures to handle 12-15 attempts per game until Mitchell returns. Given the presence of Deebo Samuel and Trey Lance as runners, the value for Wilson caps out as a flex play who will need a touchdown to catapult into an RB2 finish.
  • Chris Godwin was coming off of an ACL tear, which was already a bit of reason for caution, but he then injured his hamstring in Week 1 and now looks likely to miss game action. Julio Jones not only played the second-most snaps among Bucs wideouts in Week 1, he was second in targets with five, caught a beautiful deep throw from Tom Brady and had two rushing attempts schemed up for him. He looked resurgent, while Russell Gage didn't see a target until the fourth quarter. I have Jones as a top-30 wide receiver option this week.

Panic or patience?​

Let's take stock of some Week 1 performances from players the fantasy community had high hopes for and decide whether there's reason for concern or optimism.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (15.7 points): It's a testament to your fantasy greatness when 15.7 points is considered a letdown. While McCaffrey had just 10 rushing attempts and four targets, he played 81% of the snaps and found the end zone. He ceded just three total carries to other backs. This offense just looked out of sorts. Ditto for teammate DJ Moore, by the way, as he was on the field for 100% of the snaps. He had just three catches but a 22.2% target share. Better days are ahead.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (3.9 points): Pitts had a dud out of the gates, but I'm again undeterred. He led all Falcons skill players in terms of snaps played and tied for the team target lead with seven. Pitts didn't earn an end zone target because ... no one on the team did. His talent is special, but the value will be unleashed with better quarterback play. Can Marcus Mariota provide that? We'll see, but there's no concern yet.

Allen Robinson II, WR, Los Angeles Rams (2.2 points): The primary reason for concern for Robinson coming into the season was that he looked a step slow in 2021. He simply wasn't the player we had come to know. That carried over into Week 1 when he managed a paltry one catch for 12 yards. The silver lining was that Robinson is the clear WR2 in what will be a very good offense and played all but two offensive snaps. I'm staying patient here, but I'm not ignoring the red flags entirely.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans (4.9 fantasy points): The Pierce hype grew dramatically during the preseason, but evidently too fast, too soon. Pierce had fewer rushes, receptions, targets, yards and fantasy points than Rex Burkhead in Week 1, with Burkhead owning a decisive 49-19 snap count edge. The disconcerting part is not that Burkhead played -- we knew he'd have a role -- but that this came in a game that Houston had the right game script for Pierce to see touches. The Texans led for much of the game before tying the Colts. Unless they change their approach in Week 2 dramatically, Pierce is a bench stash.

Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams (0.0 fantasy points): Akers appears in the doghouse, as during a game in which rookie Kyren Williams got hurt before the first offensive snap, Akers was limited to just three carries and 0 yards as the clear and obvious backup to Darrell Henderson Jr. Head coach Sean McVay said after the game that Akers had to maximize his opportunities more, which doesn't suggest a return to a starting role is in the cards. This is disconcerting. If Akers doesn't get things going with Williams out for six to eight weeks, we could be talking about the disappointment of fantasy football in 2022.

Backfield breakdowns​

We can't cover all 32 teams, but let's examine some usage from backfields with multiple contributors in Week 1. The player who started the game is italicized below.

New York Jets

Michael Carter:
50 of 84 snaps; 10 rushes for 60 yards; 7 catches for 40 yards on 9 targets, 17.0 fantasy points

Breece Hall: 38 of 84 snaps; 6 rushes for 23 yards; 6 catches for 38 yards on 10 targets; 1 fumble; 10.1 fantasy points

Coordinator Mike LaFleur recently called Carter the heartbeat of the offense, and that showed in Week 1. Carter was efficient and effective as the starter, and his seven catches are in line with a strength of his game. Hall played decidedly fewer snaps and didn't look yet like the player we saw in college, but the passing-game work was encouraging for both. That said, the Jets threw it 58 times in Week 1, an inflated total that is hard to replicate. Carter is a top-20 play for me this week, while Hall is a top-35 play; over time, I expect Hall to even this work out.

Jacksonville Jaguars

James Robinson:
34 of 70 snaps; 11 carries for 66 yards and a TD; 1 catch for 3 yards and a TD on 1 target; 19.9 fantasy points

Travis Etienne Jr.: 36 of 70 snaps; 4 carries for 47 yards; 2 catches for 18 yards on 4 targets; 8.5 fantasy points

Major props to Robinson for looking fantastic just about nine months removed from an Achilles tear. That was tremendous to see, and he proved any doubters wrong. He looks ready to hang on to a legitimate role going forward, while Etienne provides more explosive plays and passing-game upside. Given the equitable snap counts, the fantasy value of these players is fairly close in my book: Robinson takes the edge in Week 2 as a low-end flex play.

Kansas City Chiefs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire:
27 of 70 snaps; 7 carries for 42 yards; 3 catches for 32 yards and 2 TDs on 3 targets; 22.4 fantasy points

Jerick McKinnon: 27 of 70 snaps; 4 carries for 22 yards; 3 catches for 27 yards on 4 targets; 7.9 fantasy points

Isiah Pacheco: 16 of 70 snaps; 12 carries for 62 yards and a TD; no catches or targets; 12.2 fantasy points

Edwards-Helaire earned the start, got elite goal line usage and looked better than he did at any point in either of his first two seasons -- it was an encouraging day. McKinnon matched Edwards-Helaire with 18 first-half snaps, as the Chiefs will rely upon him in hurry-up situations and as a change-of-pace player. Pacheco's time came largely during mop-up duty, but he did show well. CEH is the top option both in real life and fantasy, with the hopes that his Week 1 situational usage (goal line/passing game) keeps up. He's a top-25 RB play for me this week as the Chiefs will keep him fresh with McKinnon offsetting some of his upside.

Buy or sell?​

There were some unexpected stars in Week 1, which leads us to decide whether we should buy or sell on the idea of these players maintaining some level of value going forward.

Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders: Samuel was excellent in Week 1 with 8 catches on 11 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown, plus 4 rushes for 17 yards. That performance reminded us of his electric talent that led to Washington paying him $12.5 million per year. While Samuel was third in receiver snaps, he saw an opportunity (rush or target) on 20% of his plays. That percentage won't sustain, but I'm a believer in Samuel.


O.J. Howard, TE, Houston Texans: Go figure that Howard -- who was recently cut by the Bills and later signed by the Texans -- would be the lone tight end to score two touchdowns in Week 1. He also did so on two targets and 12 total snaps. You can look elsewhere if you need a tight end.

Devin Duvernay, WR, Baltimore Ravens: Duvernay scored two touchdowns in Week 1, catching all four of his targets for 54 yards. He played just 52% of the snaps, however, and while I think he's a solid talent, I'm not ready to buy into this yet. Rashod Bateman remains the lone Ravens wideout inside my top 50 for Week 2.

Robbie Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers: Anderson played every snap for the Panthers and led the team in catches, targets and yards. A reminder: He was 28th in the NFL in targets in 2021 and makes $14.5 million per year. A bounce-back season is quite possible, and he should be added to rosters.
 
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