NFL Draft 2005 Mock Draft Based on Sports Betting Markets 💹

[Wagerallsports]

Here’s a 1st-round NFL mock draft based on betting markets​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

The expansion of betting markets around the country has opened up a new avenue to wager on the NFL with draft props.

While the market is still limited in Nevada in terms of time and scope to place those wagers, the amount of betting options around the country is robust.

That also opens the door to try to piece together a mock draft based largely upon those markets, though it’s still an inexact science.

Not every player’s draft position or team’s preferred selections are available for wagering. Plus, the numbers are constantly moving, and it’s nearly impossible to figure out an entire first round in which every favorite hits in the market anyway.

But here is our attempt to take a look at how the first round could look if the betting markets and recent line moves are ahead of the traditional prognosticators.

1. Titans

Cam Ward, QB, Miami

The market has essentially decided this is a foregone conclusion with Ward listed as high as -10,000 to go with the top pick.

2. Browns

Travis Hunter, CB, Colorado

One of the most versatile players in the class has moved to -330 to go with the second pick, as it looks more and more unlikely Cleveland will select a quarterback.

3. Giants

Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State

Another team that appears to be steering away from the quarterback position, as Carter is now a -320 choice to be picked third.

4. Patriots

Will Campbell, OT, LSU

The Patriots are predicted by the market to go with an offensive lineman, and Campbell (-155) is a big favorite over Armand Membou (+450). Campbell is also a -175 choice to be selected in the top five.

5. Jaguars

Mason Graham, DT, Michigan

This is the first pick where there is ambiguity in the market, though Graham is about a -125 choice to go No. 5. No other player is lower than Jalon Walker at +400, and Graham is about -140 to go in the top five.

6. Raiders

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Jeanty is about a -155 favorite to go to the Raiders, far ahead of Walker and cornerback Will Johnson (+650). The market doesn’t anticipate Jeanty being off the board, as he is +550 to go in the top five.

7. Jets

Armand Membou, OT, Missouri

The Jets are -125 to take an offensive lineman, and Membou is -115 to be the No. 7 pick.

8. Panthers

Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia

This is the first spot in the draft where every player is plus money, but Walker (+150) is the clear pick over Mykel Williams (+350). Walker is also -900 to go inside the top 10.

9. Saints

Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

News of Derek Carr’s shoulder injury shifted a market that was already leaning in this direction. Sanders is -330 to go outside the top eight, but -220 to go inside the top 10. That says a lot.

10. Bears

Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

This one is tricky. Warren is -155 to go inside the top 10, but he’s also favored to be drafted by a Colts team that doesn’t have a top-10 pick. That suggests Indianapolis could trade up to this spot to grab Warren, who is also -225 to be picked after the ninth pick.

11. 49ers

Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

San Francisco is actually favored to pick a defensive lineman (+175) or an offensive lineman (+200) over cornerback (+300), but Johnson is priced to barely miss the top 10.

12. Cowboys

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

The Cowboys are a big favorite to draft a wide receiver in the first round, and McMillan is -230 to be the first one off the board.

13. Dolphins

Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas

There has been a big movement recently on the Dolphins to pick an offensive lineman, and the over/under on Banks’ draft position is -165 on under 13.5. The writing is on the wall.

14. Colts

Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan

The Colts are even money to draft a tight end in the first round, far ahead of an offensive lineman (+270). Warren is favored to end up in Indianapolis, but Loveland is the clear alternative and is -225 to go under 19.5 in draft position.

15. Falcons

Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M

The Falcons are a staggering -210 choice to pick a defensive lineman or edge rusher, the second-highest odds on a position for any team outside the top five. Stewart is also -2,000 to go in the first round.

16. Cardinals

Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia

The odds were identical in some books Sunday to pick an offensive or defensive lineman, but defensive line moved into a favorite Monday. Williams is also now a slight favorite (-135) to go over 15.5 in draft position.

17. Bengals

Mike Green, Edge, Marshall

The Bengals (-150) are favored to select a defensive lineman or edge rusher in the first round, and Green is a fast riser, now a -150 choice to go under 17.5 in draft position.

18. Seahawks

Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

Wide receiver is the second choice for Seattle, behind offensive line. But Golden is a -2,000 favorite to be selected in the first round, and his draft position is set right at 17.5 with no lean either way, so this is the right area for him.

19. Buccaneers

Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama

Tampa Bay is expected to take either a defensive lineman (+150) or a linebacker (+175), and Campbell is a -160 choice to go over 18.5 in terms of draft position, a number that was almost certainly set with the Buccaneers in mind.

20. Broncos

Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina

Denver is +135 to take a running back, and Hampton’s draft position prop is 19.5 with a lean to the over. He is -1,400 to be selected in the first round.

21. Steelers

Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi

The odds could change significantly depending on whether Aaron Rodgers provides any clarity about his plans. But the Steelers are by far the most likely team remaining in the first round (+225) to take a quarterback, and Dart is -425 to go in the first round. Total quarterbacks picked in the first round is also -475 to go over 2.5.

22. Chargers

Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College

The Chargers are a +150 choice to take an edge rusher or defensive lineman, and there has been a big move on Ezeiruaku to be selected in the first round (-600).

23. Packers

Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon

The Packers are a -105 favorite to select an edge rusher or defensive lineman, though there has been a recent move on cornerback (+175). Harmon is -900 to be selected in the first round.

24. Vikings

Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina

There is plenty of mystery about how the Vikings will use their first-round pick, but safety (+190) has emerged as a slight favorite over cornerback (+200). Emmanwori is the choice, as he is -1,400 to go in the first round, a clear choice over Malaki Starks (-650).

25. Texans

Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State

Houston is -260 to pick an offensive lineman, making them more likely to go a particular direction than any team outside the top five. Simmons is -750 to go in the first round.

26. Rams

Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas

While there is no clear favorite for the position of the Rams’ first-round pick, cornerback is the favorite (+225) over offensive lineman (+250). Barron is a favorite to go over a draft position of 17.5, but also a -2,000 favorite to be picked in the first round.

27. Ravens

Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan

Baltimore is an even money choice to pick a defensive lineman, which could give the Ravens a choice between Grant and Walter Nolen. Grant is -400 to go in the first round, and Nolen is -300.

28. Lions

Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss

Detroit is a -200 favorite to address the defensive line. Edge rusher might be a bigger need, but Nolen is a strong choice to go in the first round, while James Pearce Jr. is -120 and Nic Scourton +165 to go in the top 32.

29. Commanders

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

Egbuka is favored to go under 29.5 and is also a -180 choice to go in the first round. Over 2.5 receivers in the first round is also a -250 favorite.

30. Bills

Malaki Starks, S, Georgia

Safety is the third betting choice for Buffalo, but there has been a shift in that direction. Starks is a -650 pick to go in the first round.

31. Chiefs

Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State

The Chiefs are an even money choice to pick an offensive lineman, and Zabel is -1,000 to go in the first round.

32. Eagles

Tyler Booker, OL, Alabama

Booker (-400) is significantly behind Zabel as a first-round pick, but still should make it in. This also keeps the number of offensive linemen barely under the total of 6.5 (-200).

 

[Wagerallsports]

Ashton Jeanty new betting favorite to be No. 5 pick in NFL draft​

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The first five picks in the NFL draft were odds-on favorites Sunday, seemingly clearing the way for the Raiders to select Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.

That changed Monday, when the betting favorite to be the fifth pick flipped from Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham to Jeanty.

Jeanty moved from the 2-1 second choice to the even-money favorite over Graham (+140) at BetMGM and from +220 to the +125 co-favorite with Graham at Caesars Sportsbook.

Jeanty’s over-under draft position price also soared at Circa Sports from 6½ under-160 to u-275 on Monday amid reports that the Jaguars might take Jeanty at No. 5.

“There’s a lot of talk of the Raiders taking him if he’s there at 6. However, recent news suggests he might even go top 5,” Circa sportsbook risk manager Jamey Pileggi said. “Bears are very much interested and hoping he falls to them at 10. But if they really want him, it’s looking like it’ll cost them some picks in order to trade into top 5.”

MGM Resorts director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said Jeanty supplanted Graham as the favorite to go fifth after the book took a sharp bet on the Heisman Trophy runner-up.

“This is the time of the year where it’s always about posturing and speculation, and the players have better inside information than we do,” Mitchell said. “We are more reactionary in this sense, playing off of when our big players and market movers try to come in and make a big bet on one of the players.”

The Raiders and Jaguars are +120 co-favorites at MGM to draft Jeanty, who remains the -120 favorite at MGM to be the sixth pick.

Running back is still the -105 favorite at Boyd Gaming to be the position of the Raiders’ first drafted player, with offensive lineman the +250 second choice and defensive lineman/edge and linebacker each +850.

“Some of these numbers are changing every 15 minutes. It’s nuts,” VSiN host Matt Youmans said. “I believe the Raiders want Jeanty, but if Jeanty is off the board, Jalon Walker, the linebacker/edge rusher from Georgia, is who I think the Raiders will pick.”

Walker’s draft position of under 8½ is -400 at Circa, and he’s the 7-1 third choice at MGM to go No. 6. Missouri tackle Armand Membou is the 3-1 second choice.

The first four picks in the draft appear almost certain to be quarterback Cam Ward at No. 1 (-10,000 at MGM), cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter at No. 2 (-1,000), edge rusher Abdul Carter at No. 3 (-650) and offensive lineman Will Campbell (-600) at No. 4.

“Some of these numbers are changing every 15 minutes. It’s nuts,” VSiN host Matt Youmans said. “I believe the Raiders want Jeanty, but if Jeanty is off the board, Jalon Walker, the linebacker/edge rusher from Georgia, is who I think the Raiders will pick.”

How many quarterbacks in first round?

Six quarterbacks were selected in the first round last year, tying the record from 1983.

The over-under total quarterbacks drafted in the first round Thursday is 2½ (over -185) at MGM.

Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said Station Sports might put up a quarterback prop in the next day or so with an over-under of 3 or 3½.

“I think there’s definitely three guys that go in the first round: (Shedeur) Sanders, Ward and (Jaxson) Dart, in no particular order,” he said. “But it wouldn’t surprise me if (Jalen) Milroe somehow snuck back into the tail end of the first round with that fifth-year team option that teams have.

“It’s a quarterback-driven league. The Giants, Browns, Steelers and Saints are all teams that really need a quarterback.”

Station has a prop on the number of trades in the first round.

“This is an unusual year where every team in the NFL has their first-round pick right now,” Esposito said. “I think there’s going to be a lot of trades, especially with the quarterbacks.”

Less draft props

Sportsbooks have not done well on the draft, an information-based event, and have generally put up fewer props this year. The South Point isn’t posting props, Circa has posted only draft position props, and the Westgate SuperBook plans to take action on props only from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday.

Nevada books must close betting on the draft at 5 p.m. Wednesday.

“It’s not always a great outcome for our side of the counter,” Esposito said. “But there’s definitely so much interest in the draft that we want to at least put something on the board to let our guests have some fun with it.

“We’re in an information era. There’s so much information out there. If it’s true or smoke screens, it’s up to us to stay on top of it. And we know the guests on the other side of the counter are staying on top of it as well.”

 

[Wagerallsports]

NFL draft best bets: Experts like Raiders to take a long shot​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

Sharp bettors have beaten sportsbooks on the NFL draft since wagering on the information-based event was approved in Nevada in 2017.

But this year’s draft — which starts Thursday at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin — might be the toughest one yet to bet and win, VSiN host Matt Youmans said.

“The books have been very conservative about putting up props, the numbers are tighter, and this draft could get extremely unpredictable after the first few picks,” he said.

That hasn’t stopped Youmans and Tim Murray, his VSiN co-host, from placing a plethora of wagers on draft props.

The Raiders, who have the No. 6 pick, remain the +120 favorites to draft Ashton Jeanty. But the Boise State running back has replaced Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham as the odds-on favorite (-115) to be the No. 5 pick, which belongs to the Jaguars.

If Jeanty is off the board, Youmans believes the Raiders will draft Georgia linebacker/edge rusher Jalon Walker, who is the 7-1 third choice to be the sixth pick.

Missouri tackle Armand Membou is the +250 second choice behind Jeanty (+120) to be selected sixth. But Murray recommends bets on Walker and Graham (8-1) at longer odds.

“If you’re looking for a little bit of a long shot, I think Jalon Walker at 7-1 and Mason Graham at (8-1) are pretty intriguing options,” he said. “Those two guys are probably top five on a number of teams’ big boards … and Membou is probably in the 8-9-10 range.”

Here are more best bets on the draft:

Position of Cowboys’ first selection: Wide receiver, -140

First wide receiver drafted: Matthew Golden, +140

Matthew Golden draft position under 16½: +130

Youmans and Murray expect the Cowboys to draft speedy Texas wideout Matthew Golden with the 12th pick. Youmans bet on Golden to go under his draft position of 16½ and to be the first wideout picked.

“It feels like a toss-up between Golden and Tetairoa McMillan from Arizona,” Youmans (@mattyoumans247) said. “But I think the Cowboys are going to go with Golden at 12 because he’s a faster guy and the Cowboys love flashy first-round picks, and they’ll put a speed receiver opposite CeeDee Lamb.”

Murray bet on the position of Dallas’ first pick to be a receiver at a plus-price, but it has since become the favorite.

“I think ultimately Matthew Golden is going to be the selection for the Cowboys at 12,” said Murray (@1TimMurray). “But there’s an outside chance Tet McMillan goes ahead of him.”

Position of Packers’ first selection: Wide receiver, +650

The Packers haven’t selected a wide receiver in the first round since 2002, a span that includes quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ 18 seasons with the team. But Youmans and Murray are banking on draft host Green Bay to pick one Thursday, possibly Ohio State wideout Emeka Egbuka.

“Wouldn’t it be something, with the 23rd pick, if the Green Bay Packers went with a wide receiver this year,” Murray said. “I think Emeka is certainly a guy that probably gets picked in the first round, and the Packers have got a need at wide receiver.

“Or maybe it’s someone like Tet McMillan who drops. Even if they trade back, it still leaves them open to take a wide receiver. I took a little nibble on that at 6-1.”

Position of Steelers’ first selection: Quarterback, +225

Team to draft Shedeur Sanders: Steelers, 3-1

“Everyone knows the Steelers need a quarterback, and they’re sitting there at 21,” Youmans said. “I think the Steelers have to take a quarterback. They have no plan for the future. What are they doing?”

Youmans bet on Pittsburgh at +550 to be the team to draft Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders before the price dropped. But he likes Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss to be the second quarterback drafted behind Miami’s Cam Ward, the projected top overall pick.

Jaxson Dart draft position under 25½: -115

“Last year, I said countless times that (the Commanders’) Jayden Daniels was my favorite quarterback in that draft and not Caleb Williams. Jaxson Dart is my favorite quarterback in this draft,” Youmans said. “I do think the Giants like him, the Saints like him and the Steelers like him. So where’s he going to go? That’s hard to guess.

“He’s probably not going to go in the top 10, but there’s going to be some trades that are going to make things unpredictable on draft day.”

Youmans also bet on Penn State tight end Tyler Warren’s draft position under 10½ (now -190) and on Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo to go under 120½ (now -155) after it opened at 138½.

“The Bears want Ashton Jeanty or Tyler Warren. If Jeanty’s off the board, the Bears probably take (Warren) at No. 10,” he said. “I like Skattebo a lot. That’s the only prop you really see outside the first round.”

 

[maltedhopsfrenzy]

NFL Draft 2005 Mock Draft Based on Sports Betting Markets




2005…..

Just think if the Niners had taken Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith…..

 

[jjgold]

I used to like the draft no more, basically talk to me 30 minutes before the first regular season game

 

[Tanko]

Its amazing how much a players draft order changes just over the few days prior to the actual draft. So many trades for position. Trying to bet on when someone will be picked is tough.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Heritage

Draft Position​

James Pearce Jr. Over 31.5+100
James Pearce Jr. Under 31.5-130
Emeka Egbuka Over 29.5+210
Emeka Egbuka Under 29.5-270
Jaxson Dart Over 24.5-130
Jaxson Dart Under 24.5+100
Malaki Starks Over 23.5-200
Malaki Starks Under 23.5+160
Shedeur Sanders Over 21.5+130
Shedeur Sanders Under 21.5-160
Omarion Hampton Over 19.5-305
Omarion Hampton Under 19.5+225
Jahdae Barron Over 18.5+190
Jahdae Barron Under 18.5-250
Jihaad Campbell Over 18.5-320
Jihaad Campbell Under 18.5+235
Mike Green Over 17.5-330
Mike Green Under 17.5+240
Matthew Golden Over 17.5+130
Matthew Golden Under 17.5-160
Colston Loveland Over 17.5+300
Colston Loveland Under 17.5-400
Mykel Williams Over 15.5+400
Mykel Williams Under 15.5-625
Kelvin Banks Jr. Over 13.5+350
Kelvin Banks Jr. Under 13.5-500
Tyler Warren Over 9.5-230
Tyler Warren Under 9.5+175
Mason Graham Over 7.5-160
Mason Graham Under 7.5+130
Armand Membou Over 6.5-185
Armand Membou Under 6.5+150
Ashton Jeanty Over 6.5+280
Ashton Jeanty Under 6.5-380
Mason Graham Over 5.5-307
Mason Graham Under 5.5+229
Cameron Ward Over 1.5+2500
Cameron Ward Under 1.5-30003

 

[Wagerallsports]

Heritage

#2 Overall Pick​

Travis Hunter-2000
Abdul Carter+725
Shedeur Sanders+2200
Cameron Ward+10000
Mason Graham+15000
Ashton Jeanty+15000
Jaxson Dart+15000
Will Campbell+25000
Shemar Stewart+25000
Armand Membou+25000

#3 Overall Pick​

Show fewer
Abdul Carter-800
Travis Hunter+650
Shedeur Sanders+700
Ashton Jeanty+4000
Jaxson Dart+6000
Mason Graham+15000
Will Campbell+15000
Armand Membou+15000
Cameron Ward+25000
Kenneth Grant+25000
Kelvin Banks Jr.+25000
Quinn Ewers+25000
Mykel Williams+25000
Tyler Warren+25000
Will Johnson+25000
Jalon Walker+25000
Tetairoa Mcmillan+25000
Shemar Stewart+25000
Jalen Milroe+25000
Walter Nolen+25000
Nic Scourton+25000
Malaki Starks+25000
Matthew Golden+25000
Jahdae Barron+25000
Jihaad Campbell+25000
James Pearce Jr+25000
Nick Emmanwori+25000
Mike Green+25000
Cam Skattebo+50000

 

[Tanko]

Heritage

Draft Position​

James Pearce Jr. Over 31.5+100
James Pearce Jr. Under 31.5-130
Emeka Egbuka Over 29.5+210
Emeka Egbuka Under 29.5-270
Jaxson Dart Over 24.5-130
Jaxson Dart Under 24.5+100
Malaki Starks Over 23.5-200
Malaki Starks Under 23.5+160
Shedeur Sanders Over 21.5+130
Shedeur Sanders Under 21.5-160
Omarion Hampton Over 19.5-305
Omarion Hampton Under 19.5+225
Jahdae Barron Over 18.5+190
Jahdae Barron Under 18.5-250
Jihaad Campbell Over 18.5-320
Jihaad Campbell Under 18.5+235
Mike Green Over 17.5-330
Mike Green Under 17.5+240
Matthew Golden Over 17.5+130
Matthew Golden Under 17.5-160
Colston Loveland Over 17.5+300
Colston Loveland Under 17.5-400
Mykel Williams Over 15.5+400
Mykel Williams Under 15.5-625
Kelvin Banks Jr. Over 13.5+350
Kelvin Banks Jr. Under 13.5-500
Tyler Warren Over 9.5-230
Tyler Warren Under 9.5+175
Mason Graham Over 7.5-160
Mason Graham Under 7.5+130
Armand Membou Over 6.5-185
Armand Membou Under 6.5+150
Ashton Jeanty Over 6.5+280
Ashton Jeanty Under 6.5-380
Mason Graham Over 5.5-307
Mason Graham Under 5.5+229
Cameron Ward Over 1.5+2500
Cameron Ward Under 1.5-30003

Oh wow. I did not realize Heritage offered these type of draft bets.
Awesome.