Never Realized NCAAB Dog Breaking Records

[jjgold]

Now no idea as far as point spreads but as far as unranked teams beating ranking teams one of their best ever years

I think top 3 ever

 

[Tanko]

If you're talking about the take home favs vs ranked visitors......
Since Jan 28th, 18-14 56% ATS.

 

[jjgold]

No, not gambling records un ranked teams beating ranked teams is the second most in NCAA history.

 

[KVB]

Now no idea as far as point spreads but as far as unranked teams beating ranking teams one of their best ever years

I think top 3 ever

No, not gambling records un ranked teams beating ranked teams is the second most in NCAA history.

Dude, where have you been? Last year was a top year too, this year, including today's St. John's/Creighton is just ahead of last year.

Unranked teams, overall, when facing ranked teams are winning at about 27.5% this year, last year it was 26.7%.

For some perspective, this number, which I calculate and work with in the markets, rarely gets over 24%.

I can really drop some stats and knowledge about this, including breakdowns of home and away, etc.

I hate trying to paste from excel into BMR, it always add a 1. to every cell and it's toght to format out of it.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Lol KVB entered the thread and walked up to JJ like…

 

[KVB]

No, not gambling records un ranked teams beating ranked teams is the second most in NCAA history.

But gambling records matter, bruh, that's all the matters. The clip at which the unranked teams are winning is only one thing, but the ROI on betting them and units won or loss across all of them, can show something else, even though we don't bet all of them. Then we can break it down by conference, and get even more granular. We can to only the ones predicted in the Forecasts as well, which is even more valuable.

It's true though, this year if a bettor had risked the same unit on every unranked team's moneyline when the play a ranked team (home and away) that bettor would be down about -35 units overall, with an ROI of about -7.9%.

Last year, the other outlying high win percentage for unranked teams vs ranked would have yielded that same bettor about -112 units, with an ROI of about -22.3%

This year feels different, that's for sure.

In 2017-18, the clip was a relatively normal 23.4% but the ROI while risking the same unit on every unranked team to beat the ranked team was as little as -1% and a loss of about -6 units.

The ROI here can really vary. In the 2008-09 season, that same bettor actually won about +8.5 units with an ROI of about 1.5%. The payouts were so big they eclipsed the vigorish over all 597 games.

I could go on. In the last 20 years we've seen that ROI on every game go from that +1.5% season to a -35% season, with everything in between.

But this looks to be the best 3rd best year in the last 20 ROI wise with that -7.9%, risking the same unit, behind the -1% and +1.5%.

 

[KVB]

Here are the means and medians of gambling info over the last 20 seasons when risking the same unit on every unranked team's moneyline against a ranked team...

	Win	ROI	Units
	Percentage		Won/Lost
Mean	22.2%	-21.3%	-113
Med	22.5%	-22.3%	-125

 

[KVB]

So you can see, last season's 26.7% clip and this season's 27.5% clip are near 2 standard deviations from the median over the last 20 years. the std was 2.6% there.

When it comes to ROI the std was 9.6%. While last years ROI was right at the median, -22.3% of the last 20 years, this year it's running at -7.9%. That's more than 1.5 std's off the median.

This year is not only offering a high percentage of unranked teams beating ranked teams, it's also offering some of highest underdog moneyline payouts in recent history.

Will the market catch up and start reducing those odds?

 

[KVB]

Will the market catch up and start reducing those odds?

Look at last year.

The ROI betting the same unit on every unranked team to beat the ranked team on the moneyline yielded -22.3%. That's dead on the median over the last 20 years. The market wasn't exactly shocked by the 26.7% win clip, even if it was more than one and a half std's from the median.

But this year, the clip is even higher, at 27.5%, almost 2 full std's off the median of 20 years and the ROI sits at -7.9% which is 1.5 std's off the median.

Those dogs are paying and the books appear to be caught off guard. Let's revisit this at the end of the season and see how those means and medians stack up against the full seasons of the last 20 years.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

 

[KVB]

We could break this down further, and look at last season through the month of February and compare it to this season.

Here are the numbers risking the same unit on every unranked team's moneyline to beat a ranked opponent over last season through the month of February and this season to date...

Season	Win	ROI
	Percentage
2023	27.4%	-8.1%
2022	27.4%	-19.8%

So here we can see that the books weren't so suprised last year overall, and either already had or didn't have to make much of an adjustment to get to the -22.3% median it finished at last year. They were on the same pace for the season, and this year is the same.

Purdue beat Michigan today, since I started posting, so the current season ROI is -8.1%, moved from the -7.9% earlier in the day.

Now, March doesn't offer too many more games and opportunities to change these ROI's from where they are through February and remember everything in this thread involves the regular season.

We could add the postseason and even see how each regular season ended up doing in the post season. Did the unranked teams succed in the tournaments? Or did the ranked teams finally get there wins when it counts?

 

[KVB]

Here's the Home/Away, Favorite/Dog moneyline breakdowns for a bettor risking the same unit on the unranked team's moneyline when facing a ranked team for this season...

Units and ROI depend on the line bought.

Team Wins Losses Win Estimated Estimated Condition Percentage ROI Units Favorite 26​ 16​ 61.9%​ -1.4%​ -0.5​ Dog 97​ 310​ 23.8%​ -8.8%​ -36​ 123​ 326​ 27.4%​ -8.1%​ -36.5​ Home 82​ 96​ 46.1%​ 25.0%​ 44.5​ Away 31​ 189​ 14.1%​ -30.0%​ -65​ Neutral 10​ 41​ 19.6%​ -32.0%​ -16​ 123​ 326​ 27.4%​ -8.1%​ -36.5​ Fav/Home 26​ 14​ 65.0%​ 3.50%​ 1.5​ Dog/Home 56​ 82​ 40.6%​ 31.10%​ 43​ Fav/Away 0​ 0​ 0.0%​ 0​ 0​ Dog/Away 31​ 189​ 14.1%​ -30%​ -65​ Fav/Neutral 0​ 2​ 0.0%​ -100%​ -2​ Dog/Neutral 10​ 39​ 20.4%​ -29%​ -14​

 

[KVB]

Betting the unranked team as a dog at home has been profit this season, but it's eclipsed by the large losses when those unranked teams go on the road.

 

[KVB]

Let's put these numbers against the background of the entire league as a whole over the last two seasons...

Year Team Wins Losses Win Estimated Estimated Condition Percentage ROI Units 2023-24 Home 1981​ 1081​ 64.7%​ -2%​ -6​ Away 1081​ 1981​ 35.3%​ -16%​ -50​ 2022-23 Home 2202​ 1264​ 63.5%​ -2.3%​ -8​ Away 1264​ 2202​ 36.5%​ -13.80%​ -47.5​

 

[KVB]

Notice the win percentages for unranked teams at home above and the estimated ROI compared to the league as a whole in the previous post.

Then compare the same for the away schedule.

 

[KVB]

Here are the records for the teams with at least 2 wins at HOME while they were unranked and facing a ranked opponent this season.

@Tanko might dig into some of these 3 win teams and give us some deeper perspective.

Team HOME RECORD GTECH 3-0 N MEXICO 3-0 N MEXICO ST 3-0 KANSAS ST 3-1 UCF 3-2 PENN ST 2-0 UAB 2-0 N'WESTERN 2-0 PROVIDENCE 2-0 TCU 2-0 TEXAS A&M 2-0 UTAH ST 2-0 NEVADA 2-0 SETONHALL 2-1 NEBRASKA 2-1 LSU 2-1 VTECH 2-1 W VIRGINIA 2-2

 

[KVB]

Here are the conference records for Unranked teams when playing at home against ranked teams from any conference in the league.

The thing to note here are the wins more than the losses. Obviously some conferences will have more ranked teams and it shows in the chart.

Conference Home vs Ranked Team Big 12 15-14 Big 10 12-14 MWC 11-7 SEC 10-14 ACC 9-13 AAC 6-7 BIG EAST 6-17 PAC 12 6-4 ATL 10 3-2 MVC 1-0 SOUTHLAND 1-0 WAC 1-0 WCC 1-0

 

[jjgold]

KVB how much time do you spend a day with all this paperwork?

it seems like you have statistics on everything

 

[BMR Genie]

KVB definitely knows his stuff, JJ.

 

[KVB]

KVB how much time do you spend a day with all this paperwork?

Well, Gold, we do have computers these days.