NCAAM Play 2/1

[djefferis]

Cleveland State -7.5 (@ Detroit)

This one appears almost TOO easy. Vikes taking on a hapless Detroit Mercy team on the road. Detroit is presently WINLESS - Vikes a slightly disappointing 13-9 (6-5 in the Horizon).

Detroit has only been competitive in 2 games this season - both with sub .500 Horizon teams. Otherwise it’s been a string of double digit losses.

Be warned though - this Cleveland State team has shown itself to “play down” to inferior opponents. Might want to consider playing 1st half or moneyline (presently around -350) or a combination of both.

Any chance to get a good team versus a winless one at this point in the season for -350 is worth taking a small play in at least. I like the spread here again based on recent trends for both teams.

YTD 12-7 +4.3

 

[charliebrown]

Cle st blew game to wright st the other night. But it was because #3 from wright state was Jimmer Ferdette

 

[djefferis]

Also looking at the days biggest 2 games right now Cal @ Arizona and Wisconsin @ Nebraska.

Initial thoughts - 18.5 is too much to give Cal - clearly ‘Zona at home is likely to win - but giving up this many is a hard pill to swallow.

Wisconsin +1 at Nebraska is interesting. Bucky at #6 in the rankings is too high in my opinion - but in a virtual coin flip on the road in Nebraska - is it worth taking the superior team. Lots of recent success taking unranked home vs ranked road teams - but I’m thinking Wisconsin here in a low scoring matchup. Might go the under 144.5 vs taking a side here - still researching if there will be a play.

 

[djefferis]

Kid got lucky for Wright State - both in managing a 3 to tie to end regulation and then getting hot in OT.

I’m not super impressed by the Vikes this season - feels like they lost 2-3 they should have won - including that one. Have had propensity to wind up in OT and blow big first halves. Still - this Detroit team is just BAD.

 

[JDS]

I’ll look at this game later thanks for sharing your POV.

 

[jjgold]

When a game looks too easy watch out

 

[Tanko]

When a game looks too easy watch out

Sometimes it works out JJ.
e.g. S. Florida yesterday.

 

[BMR Genie]

I like the word you used DJ - Detriot - WINLESS haha

Detroit and MS Valley should have their own match. The battle of winless teams.

Good luck with all your action, DJ!

 

[djefferis]

Sometimes it works out JJ.
e.g. S. Florida yesterday.

exactly - sometimes it’s a trap

others it looks easy because you know what the hell your talking about. Of course for certain gamblers - that’s never the issue.

Got to bet on yourself if your a lifetime winner.

 

[JDS]

@Tanko when two teams are pretty even regarding win/loss & numbers. Would you agree the home team should be favored by -7 in cbb as it relates to the NFL -3 your thoughts ?

 

[JDS]

Perfect example today is Stony Brook @ Hofstra -7. Two teams pretty much dead even although Stony Brook is superior team ATS.

 

[Tanko]

Perfect example today is Stony Brook @ Hofstra -7. Two teams pretty much dead even although Stony Brook is superior team ATS.

Records are close but underlying stats indicate something different.

• KenPom Data has Hofstra #142 and Stony #211. (edge Hostra)
• And a est spread of -6 Hofstra (74-68). (no edge ~ close to avail spread)
• Strength of Schedule 157 vs 187. (no edge)
• Most of the edges on offense and defense go to Hofstra (efficiency, turnovers). (edge Hostra)

This data seems to indicate Hofstra is a slightly stronger team. But by 7 points???

So, If I was capping this game, I would look at ATS coverage the last 10 games to help fine tune the pick --> Which you did and it seems Stony can hang around in games.

So data says Hofstra will win (do they routinely cover?) but Stony may keep within the line. That would probably drop the game off my card unless there were some injuries or other angle to consider.

Sorry for the long post and I realize you didn't need the deails but, this is how I would evaluate at this game.

 

[Tanko]

I would look at ATS coverage the last 10 games to help fine tune the pick

Short answer...

Bottom line, if most if not all of the data for teams was roughly the same, i would look at this (ATS coverage) and their trends (winning/losing vs similar teams).

 

[JDS]

Records are close but underlying stats indicate something different.

• KenPom Data has Hofstra #142 and Stony #211. (edge Hostra)
• And a est spread of -6 Hofstra (74-68). (no edge ~ close to avail spread)
• Strength of Schedule 157 vs 187. (no edge)
• Most of the edges on offense and defense go to Hofstra (efficiency, turnovers). (edge Hostra)

This data seems to indicate Hofstra is a slightly stronger team. But by 7 points???

So, If I was capping this game, I would look at ATS coverage the last 10 games to help fine tune the pick --> Which you did and it seems Stony can hang around in games.

So data says Hofstra will win (do they routinely cover?) but Stony may keep within the line. That would probably drop the game off my card unless there were some injuries or other angle to consider.

Sorry for the long post and I realize you didn't need the deails but, this is how I would evaluate at this game.

No problem at all love the response, I was leaning Stony Brook +7 but it will not make my best bet today, thanks for your POV.

 

[KVB]

@Tanko when two teams are pretty even regarding win/loss & numbers. Would you agree the home team should be favored by -7 in cbb as it relates to the NFL -3 your thoughts ?

You have a general home field advantage of 7 points?

That's an upper edge at best for the spectrum across Hoops.

Home court should be calculated for each game but I think you'll find the vast majority are much smaller than 7 points, more like an average of 3 points, and some don't have a home court advantage at all.

Some have an away court advantage.

 

[JDS]

You have a general home field advantage of 7 points?

That's an upper edge at best for the spectrum across Hoops.

Home court should be calculated for each game but I think you'll find the vast majority are much smaller than 7 points, more like an average of 3 points, and some don't have a home court advantage at all.

Some have an away court advantage.

I just feel like in general it’s a lot larger than compared to football especially during conference play. Maybe we can meet in the middle, let’s say 5 rather.

 

[KVB]

I just feel like in general it’s a lot larger than compared to football especially during conference play. Maybe we can meet in the middle, let’s say 5 rather.

No need to meet in the middle. Just determine you parameter and we can get an exact average.

I recommend conference play in the numbers as some of those early season mismatches will skew the averages. Not to mention the lack of home games with those tourneys, etc in the first half of the season.

 

[Tanko]

You have a general home field advantage of 7 points?

That's an upper edge at best for the spectrum across Hoops.

Home court should be calculated for each game but I think you'll find the vast majority are much smaller than 7 points, more like an average of 3 points, and some don't have a home court advantage at all.

Some have an away court advantage.

I just feel like in general it’s a lot larger than compared to football especially during conference play. Maybe we can meet in the middle, let’s say 5 rather.

I use 2.5 to 4 (extreme high).
To come up with HCA, I typically average data from several websites that I trust.


Also, it can change over the year. If a team gets on a roll, their fans show up and the advantage gets a little bigger and vice versa.

 

[Tanko]

I just realized we hijacked @djefferis thread.
Sorry about that.

 

[JDS]

I just realized we hijacked @djefferis thread.
Sorry about that.

I was the original culprit, so blame me lol. I have a knack for doing that actually.