LT Profits
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College Football Picks for Championship Saturday: Lots of Scoring in the ACC
We fell to a still good 28-17 across All Sports with our write-ups after our NCAA Basketball loss Wednesday. That includes going 14-9 in College Football and we have two plays for Championship Saturday including Duke vs. Virginia in the ACC.
Miami-Ohio Red Hawks vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Saturday, December 7th – 12:00 Noon ET
In the only championship game on Saturday that is not for a Power 4 conference, we do not expect a lot of scoring in the MAC Championship in Detroit. Thus, we are going Under the total when Miami Ohio takes on Western Michigan.
Facing Excellent Defense with Third QB
Miami comes in with a modest 7-5 record and is now on its third starting quarterback of the season. Their initial starter Dequan Finn left the team late in the year and was replaced by Henry Hesson for an awful start in the second-to-last game of the season. where he completed just 11-of-38 passes and threw three interceptions. So, he was replaced by the current starter in freshman Thomas Gotkowski for the season finale.
Gotkowski was decent while completing 13-of-23 passes for 185 yards and one touchdown, but that was against one of the worst teams in the country in Buffalo. As that game is the freshman’s only college experience entering this contest, the Red Hawks will probably try to lean on their rushing attack which averaged 159.2 rushing yards per game. The problem there is that Western Michigan finished 27th in the country in rushing defense and allowed a scant 3.7 yards per carry.
Moreover, the metrics say that WMU not only had an excellent defense for a MAC team, but for any team. That is because that unit ranks in the Top 35 nationally in Rushing Efficiency, Line Yards, Havoc and Quality Drives Allowed. We simply do not see Miami generating much offense with such an inexperienced quarterback in a crucial spot.
WMU Can Consume Time with Run
On the other side, Western Michigan is just 124th in total offense while averaging more rushing yards per game (189.2) than passing yards (142.3). That should result in time consuming drives while running the ball so often, and those kinds of drives are the best types for Under bettors. And that gets magnified if we are correct about Miami having trouble scoring, as WMU would be protecting a lead with the run.
Then again, there is no guarantee that those long drives will end with points, as based on raw numbers at least, Miami is also good defensively ranking 31st in total defense, 30th in rushing defense and 52nd in passing defense. We think the pass defense is rather moot though considering the Broncos do not throw the ball much, and the UM run defense is not rated nearly as high metrically, reporting home 72nd on PFF.
In the end, we expect Miami Ohio to struggle to score and for Western Michigan to have long drives against a Red Hawks run defense that is not as good as its raw numbers. Therefore, we are betting on the Under in the MAC Championship.
THE PICK
Under 43.5 -108 at Heritage
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, December 7th – 8:00pm ET
We are not very high on either team in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night, but we do expect each team to at least have offensive success. So, we are betting on the Over when Virginia takes on Duke in Charlotte.
Balanced Offense Should Continue to Succeed
We agree with the popular narrative that Virginia greatly overachieved this season by going 10-2 despite some mediocre metrics and a huge turnover differential. In fact, the Cavaliers finished 11th in the country in fewest fumbles lost and second in fumbles recovered! Yet, here they are as favorites to win the ACC Championship, thanks to lucking out again by drawing a Duke team that backed into this game on the fifth tiebreaker.
But all of that aside, quarterback Chad Morris did have a good season passing for 2,586 yards and 14 touchdowns while also rushing for 248 yards and five more scores. Moreover, he was knocked out early in the loss at Wake Forest, meaning that the Wahoos went 10-1 in the games that he completed, with the only loss being a close 35-31 loss to NC State. That type of score could very well resemble the outcome of this game.
The offense was not all about Morris though as Virginia had nice balance, ranking 30th in the country in rushing at 188.7 yards per game. We see that balanced attack having success against a Duke team that ranked 114th in total defense, as well as 104th in scoring defense surrendering an unsightly 29.1 points per game.
Duke Offense Very Good Metrically
Duke finished just 7-5, which speaks to how mediocre at best the ACC was this season with this team getting here. Still, while we have mentioned the poor defense, the Blue Devils can score, ranking 31st in total offense and 18th in scoring at 34.6 points per game with quarterback Darian Mensah at the helm. Mensah was amazing while passing for 3,450 yards and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt, with 28 touchdown passes against just four interceptions!
And those numbers were not a fluke based on the metrics, as Duke finished 11th in the land in Big Play Creation. To wit, they had 31 plays of over 30 yards, which was the third most in the conference. Also, we alluded to Virginia benefitting from turnovers this year, and we do not see them doing that here considering how good Mensah has been in ball protection with just the four picks.
In the end, we see paths to success for both offenses. So, while the ultimate winner here will not merit its automatic bid to the College Football Playoff, this should at least be an entertaining game that has us going Over this total.
THE PICK
Over 57.5 -109 at Bookmaker
Remember that we already have at least one more play than these here and could possibly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
We fell to a still good 28-17 across All Sports with our write-ups after our NCAA Basketball loss Wednesday. That includes going 14-9 in College Football and we have two plays for Championship Saturday including Duke vs. Virginia in the ACC.
Miami-Ohio Red Hawks vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Saturday, December 7th – 12:00 Noon ET
In the only championship game on Saturday that is not for a Power 4 conference, we do not expect a lot of scoring in the MAC Championship in Detroit. Thus, we are going Under the total when Miami Ohio takes on Western Michigan.
Facing Excellent Defense with Third QB
Miami comes in with a modest 7-5 record and is now on its third starting quarterback of the season. Their initial starter Dequan Finn left the team late in the year and was replaced by Henry Hesson for an awful start in the second-to-last game of the season. where he completed just 11-of-38 passes and threw three interceptions. So, he was replaced by the current starter in freshman Thomas Gotkowski for the season finale.
Gotkowski was decent while completing 13-of-23 passes for 185 yards and one touchdown, but that was against one of the worst teams in the country in Buffalo. As that game is the freshman’s only college experience entering this contest, the Red Hawks will probably try to lean on their rushing attack which averaged 159.2 rushing yards per game. The problem there is that Western Michigan finished 27th in the country in rushing defense and allowed a scant 3.7 yards per carry.
Moreover, the metrics say that WMU not only had an excellent defense for a MAC team, but for any team. That is because that unit ranks in the Top 35 nationally in Rushing Efficiency, Line Yards, Havoc and Quality Drives Allowed. We simply do not see Miami generating much offense with such an inexperienced quarterback in a crucial spot.
WMU Can Consume Time with Run
On the other side, Western Michigan is just 124th in total offense while averaging more rushing yards per game (189.2) than passing yards (142.3). That should result in time consuming drives while running the ball so often, and those kinds of drives are the best types for Under bettors. And that gets magnified if we are correct about Miami having trouble scoring, as WMU would be protecting a lead with the run.
Then again, there is no guarantee that those long drives will end with points, as based on raw numbers at least, Miami is also good defensively ranking 31st in total defense, 30th in rushing defense and 52nd in passing defense. We think the pass defense is rather moot though considering the Broncos do not throw the ball much, and the UM run defense is not rated nearly as high metrically, reporting home 72nd on PFF.
In the end, we expect Miami Ohio to struggle to score and for Western Michigan to have long drives against a Red Hawks run defense that is not as good as its raw numbers. Therefore, we are betting on the Under in the MAC Championship.
THE PICK
Under 43.5 -108 at Heritage
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, December 7th – 8:00pm ET
We are not very high on either team in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night, but we do expect each team to at least have offensive success. So, we are betting on the Over when Virginia takes on Duke in Charlotte.
Balanced Offense Should Continue to Succeed
We agree with the popular narrative that Virginia greatly overachieved this season by going 10-2 despite some mediocre metrics and a huge turnover differential. In fact, the Cavaliers finished 11th in the country in fewest fumbles lost and second in fumbles recovered! Yet, here they are as favorites to win the ACC Championship, thanks to lucking out again by drawing a Duke team that backed into this game on the fifth tiebreaker.
But all of that aside, quarterback Chad Morris did have a good season passing for 2,586 yards and 14 touchdowns while also rushing for 248 yards and five more scores. Moreover, he was knocked out early in the loss at Wake Forest, meaning that the Wahoos went 10-1 in the games that he completed, with the only loss being a close 35-31 loss to NC State. That type of score could very well resemble the outcome of this game.
The offense was not all about Morris though as Virginia had nice balance, ranking 30th in the country in rushing at 188.7 yards per game. We see that balanced attack having success against a Duke team that ranked 114th in total defense, as well as 104th in scoring defense surrendering an unsightly 29.1 points per game.
Duke Offense Very Good Metrically
Duke finished just 7-5, which speaks to how mediocre at best the ACC was this season with this team getting here. Still, while we have mentioned the poor defense, the Blue Devils can score, ranking 31st in total offense and 18th in scoring at 34.6 points per game with quarterback Darian Mensah at the helm. Mensah was amazing while passing for 3,450 yards and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt, with 28 touchdown passes against just four interceptions!
And those numbers were not a fluke based on the metrics, as Duke finished 11th in the land in Big Play Creation. To wit, they had 31 plays of over 30 yards, which was the third most in the conference. Also, we alluded to Virginia benefitting from turnovers this year, and we do not see them doing that here considering how good Mensah has been in ball protection with just the four picks.
In the end, we see paths to success for both offenses. So, while the ultimate winner here will not merit its automatic bid to the College Football Playoff, this should at least be an entertaining game that has us going Over this total.
THE PICK
Over 57.5 -109 at Bookmaker
Remember that we already have at least one more play than these here and could possibly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
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