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College Football Picks for Saturday: Lobos to Howl Past Wounded Falcons on the Road
We have hit a dry spell with these write-ups with three straight losing days. However, we remain 21-11 overall across All Sports including 10-6 in College Football, and we have three plays for Saturday beginning with Charlotte vs. Georgia at 12:45pm ET.
Charlotte 49ers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 22nd – 12:45pm ET
While we total get that Georgia can beat Charlotte by 60 points with an all-out effort, we are not expecting one on Saturday in Athens. So, since we like pain and punishment, we are taking these massive points with the 49ers with this spread in the mid-40s.
Need Kirby to be Kirby
Georgia most likely clinched a spot in the College Football Playoff by beating Texas last Saturday, and obviously they still have a chance at an SEC Championship that would guarantee a bid. Thus, we do not expect much of an effort here in a meaningless game against a totally outclassed opponent. More importantly, Bulldogs Coach Kirby Smart has always treated these SEC November non-conference games as nothing more than glorified scrimmages.
To wit, Smart is 4-13 ATS in non-conference games against non-power conferences since become the head coach at Georgia. Moreover, all four covers came in the month of September, meaning Smart has not cared at all about these late-season cupcakes while never covering these even once! This stretch also includes going 0-5 ATS against FCS teams, which in all honesty Charlotte is not much better than.
We expect Kirby to do Kirby things here after the big Texas win and with a short week coming up before facing Georgia Tech in season-ending rivalry game next Friday. This means running a vanilla offense to not give anything away and just focusing on keeping everybody healthy.
Just Score Once!
Now, we have nothing nice to say about a Charlotte team that is one of the worst in the country, coming in at 1-9 with the win coming against an FCS team in Monmouth. Still, one good thing pertaining to this game is that the 49ers have yet to get shut out.
The significance of that here is that scoring just 6-7 points may be enough to cover this enormous number given Georgia’s expected indifference. Better yet, getting shut out 42-0 would still cover this number, although we do think that Charlotte can manage one score against a relaxed Bulldogs defense that will undoubtedly be filled with backups in the second half.
Needless to say, this play comes down to the spot and how Smart has handled this situation in the past. With that in mind, hold your nose and take more than six touchdowns with Charlotte.
THE PICK
Charlotte +44 -108 at Heritage
Missouri State Bears vs. Kennesaw State Owls
Saturday, November 22nd – 2:00pm ET
In an interesting matchup between two teams that rely heavily on explosive plays but that have not been very good in generating points otherwise, we are betting on the Under when Missouri State visits Kennesaw State.
Bears Metrically Outside Top 100 in Offense
Missouri State has made a nice transition to the FBS level going 7-3 in its first season, thanks to a 34th ranked passing attack led by quarterback Jacob Clark, who has passed for 2,257 yards and 19 touchdowns. However, Clark has struggled at times with ball protection with eight interceptions, and the passing attack has not graded out nearly as well as its raw ranking metrically.
The main reason for that is that while the Bears rank a good 34th in Explosive Pass plays, they sit outside of the top 100 in Passing Success Rate. This means that they have been unsuccessful on passing plays a big majority of the time, but they have had an extraordinary percentage of explosive plays when they have been successful. That points to a lot of good luck that cannot be relied upon to continue.
Furthermore, the Rushing attack is ranked 110th per PFF, and the Bears also rank outside the Top 100 in Finishing Drives, with a large portion of their modest 24.1 points per game coming on long scores of more than 20 yards. We see the Kennesaw defense that ranks a decent 47th in points allowed limiting those breakaway plays, leading to the Bears being held below their season average here.
Kennesaw Also Outperforming Metrics
Now, Kennesaw State seems well balanced on the frontline stats, ranking 62nd nationally in total offense, 58th in rushing offense and 66th in passing offense. Well, the good news there is that they are indeed well balanced in their peripherals also. But the bad news is that they do not rank nearly as high metrically, rated 87th in rushing and 84th in passing per PFF.
In fact, it is rather amazing how similar the profiles of these two offenses are, as the Owls also rank highly in Explosive Pass Plays but sit in the 120s in Success Rate and Finishing Drives. And Kennesaw is facing the better secondary, with Missouri State ranked 47th in Coverage, which should limit the big passing plays that the Owls have relied on.
In a nutshell, neither of these offenses has performed as well as they appear on the mainstream numbers, which in each case would be considerably worse without the high Explosive rates. This has us backing the Under in Fifth Third Stadium on Saturday.
THE PICK
Under 55.5 -113 at Bet105
New Mexico Lobos vs Air Force Falcons
Saturday, November 22nd – 7:00pm ET
Air Force lost practically its entire offense with the season-ending injury to quarterback Liam Szarka last week, while New Mexico still has a chance to make it to the Mountain West Championship Game. This has us backing the Lobos as road favorites Saturday night.
No Motivation for Falcons and Drop-Off at QB
The Falcons are wounded entering this game both physically and emotionally. The latter is because they no longer have a chance to become bowl-eligible with last week’s 26-16 loss at Connecticut dropping then to 3-7. But the bigger story is the loss of Szarka to a fractured arm last week.
Not only was Szarka a legitimate passer that put the pass in the triple-option, but he also led the team in rushing with 922 yards on the ground and 13 rushing touchdowns. This was to go along with 1,294 passing yards while averaging a potent 10.0 yards per attempt with nine touchdown passes. Now, it will be a huge drop-off in the passing game with converted fullback Kemper Hodges at quarterback.
Sure, Air Force still comes into this game third in the country in rushing at 271.1 yards per game, but that loses a ton of context without Szarka under center. This should make it hard to move the ball against a New Mexico team ranked 17th in rushing defense, a figure legitimized by a Top 35 ranking in Defensive Run Success Rate. It also renders the lousy Lobos 118th ranked passing defense almost moot.
Lobos Bowl Eligible, Have Higher Sites
The Lobos are having their best season in years, as they are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 at 7-3. They are not sitting on those laurels though as their 20-17 win over Colorado State still leaves them with a chance to reach the Mountain West Championship Game. They are currently tied for second in the conference at 6-3 with two games left counting this one.
Quarterback Jack Layne was not great in last week’s win completing only 13-of-25 passes for 226 yards, although that did still equate to 9.0 yards per attempt. We expect a return to the form of his previous game against UNLV here though, where he passed for 347 yards and three touchdowns. That is because he is facing an Air Force team ranked 131st in passing defense and dead last in Defensive Passing Success Rate!
We expect the passing of Layne to lead New Mexico to a safe win against an Air Force squad that we feel will have a tough time generating points without Szarka. Give the small spot with the Lobos on the road.
Please note that we bet New Mexico at -3 -118 and posted that line in the BookmakersReview Forum Picks thread when it was available on Wednesday. But for write-up purposes only, we will track our record at the line below.
THE PICK
New Mexico -3.5 -108 -at Heritage
Remember that we already have more plays than this and will almost certainly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
We have hit a dry spell with these write-ups with three straight losing days. However, we remain 21-11 overall across All Sports including 10-6 in College Football, and we have three plays for Saturday beginning with Charlotte vs. Georgia at 12:45pm ET.
Charlotte 49ers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 22nd – 12:45pm ET
While we total get that Georgia can beat Charlotte by 60 points with an all-out effort, we are not expecting one on Saturday in Athens. So, since we like pain and punishment, we are taking these massive points with the 49ers with this spread in the mid-40s.
Need Kirby to be Kirby
Georgia most likely clinched a spot in the College Football Playoff by beating Texas last Saturday, and obviously they still have a chance at an SEC Championship that would guarantee a bid. Thus, we do not expect much of an effort here in a meaningless game against a totally outclassed opponent. More importantly, Bulldogs Coach Kirby Smart has always treated these SEC November non-conference games as nothing more than glorified scrimmages.
To wit, Smart is 4-13 ATS in non-conference games against non-power conferences since become the head coach at Georgia. Moreover, all four covers came in the month of September, meaning Smart has not cared at all about these late-season cupcakes while never covering these even once! This stretch also includes going 0-5 ATS against FCS teams, which in all honesty Charlotte is not much better than.
We expect Kirby to do Kirby things here after the big Texas win and with a short week coming up before facing Georgia Tech in season-ending rivalry game next Friday. This means running a vanilla offense to not give anything away and just focusing on keeping everybody healthy.
Just Score Once!
Now, we have nothing nice to say about a Charlotte team that is one of the worst in the country, coming in at 1-9 with the win coming against an FCS team in Monmouth. Still, one good thing pertaining to this game is that the 49ers have yet to get shut out.
The significance of that here is that scoring just 6-7 points may be enough to cover this enormous number given Georgia’s expected indifference. Better yet, getting shut out 42-0 would still cover this number, although we do think that Charlotte can manage one score against a relaxed Bulldogs defense that will undoubtedly be filled with backups in the second half.
Needless to say, this play comes down to the spot and how Smart has handled this situation in the past. With that in mind, hold your nose and take more than six touchdowns with Charlotte.
THE PICK
Charlotte +44 -108 at Heritage
Missouri State Bears vs. Kennesaw State Owls
Saturday, November 22nd – 2:00pm ET
In an interesting matchup between two teams that rely heavily on explosive plays but that have not been very good in generating points otherwise, we are betting on the Under when Missouri State visits Kennesaw State.
Bears Metrically Outside Top 100 in Offense
Missouri State has made a nice transition to the FBS level going 7-3 in its first season, thanks to a 34th ranked passing attack led by quarterback Jacob Clark, who has passed for 2,257 yards and 19 touchdowns. However, Clark has struggled at times with ball protection with eight interceptions, and the passing attack has not graded out nearly as well as its raw ranking metrically.
The main reason for that is that while the Bears rank a good 34th in Explosive Pass plays, they sit outside of the top 100 in Passing Success Rate. This means that they have been unsuccessful on passing plays a big majority of the time, but they have had an extraordinary percentage of explosive plays when they have been successful. That points to a lot of good luck that cannot be relied upon to continue.
Furthermore, the Rushing attack is ranked 110th per PFF, and the Bears also rank outside the Top 100 in Finishing Drives, with a large portion of their modest 24.1 points per game coming on long scores of more than 20 yards. We see the Kennesaw defense that ranks a decent 47th in points allowed limiting those breakaway plays, leading to the Bears being held below their season average here.
Kennesaw Also Outperforming Metrics
Now, Kennesaw State seems well balanced on the frontline stats, ranking 62nd nationally in total offense, 58th in rushing offense and 66th in passing offense. Well, the good news there is that they are indeed well balanced in their peripherals also. But the bad news is that they do not rank nearly as high metrically, rated 87th in rushing and 84th in passing per PFF.
In fact, it is rather amazing how similar the profiles of these two offenses are, as the Owls also rank highly in Explosive Pass Plays but sit in the 120s in Success Rate and Finishing Drives. And Kennesaw is facing the better secondary, with Missouri State ranked 47th in Coverage, which should limit the big passing plays that the Owls have relied on.
In a nutshell, neither of these offenses has performed as well as they appear on the mainstream numbers, which in each case would be considerably worse without the high Explosive rates. This has us backing the Under in Fifth Third Stadium on Saturday.
THE PICK
Under 55.5 -113 at Bet105
New Mexico Lobos vs Air Force Falcons
Saturday, November 22nd – 7:00pm ET
Air Force lost practically its entire offense with the season-ending injury to quarterback Liam Szarka last week, while New Mexico still has a chance to make it to the Mountain West Championship Game. This has us backing the Lobos as road favorites Saturday night.
No Motivation for Falcons and Drop-Off at QB
The Falcons are wounded entering this game both physically and emotionally. The latter is because they no longer have a chance to become bowl-eligible with last week’s 26-16 loss at Connecticut dropping then to 3-7. But the bigger story is the loss of Szarka to a fractured arm last week.
Not only was Szarka a legitimate passer that put the pass in the triple-option, but he also led the team in rushing with 922 yards on the ground and 13 rushing touchdowns. This was to go along with 1,294 passing yards while averaging a potent 10.0 yards per attempt with nine touchdown passes. Now, it will be a huge drop-off in the passing game with converted fullback Kemper Hodges at quarterback.
Sure, Air Force still comes into this game third in the country in rushing at 271.1 yards per game, but that loses a ton of context without Szarka under center. This should make it hard to move the ball against a New Mexico team ranked 17th in rushing defense, a figure legitimized by a Top 35 ranking in Defensive Run Success Rate. It also renders the lousy Lobos 118th ranked passing defense almost moot.
Lobos Bowl Eligible, Have Higher Sites
The Lobos are having their best season in years, as they are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 at 7-3. They are not sitting on those laurels though as their 20-17 win over Colorado State still leaves them with a chance to reach the Mountain West Championship Game. They are currently tied for second in the conference at 6-3 with two games left counting this one.
Quarterback Jack Layne was not great in last week’s win completing only 13-of-25 passes for 226 yards, although that did still equate to 9.0 yards per attempt. We expect a return to the form of his previous game against UNLV here though, where he passed for 347 yards and three touchdowns. That is because he is facing an Air Force team ranked 131st in passing defense and dead last in Defensive Passing Success Rate!
We expect the passing of Layne to lead New Mexico to a safe win against an Air Force squad that we feel will have a tough time generating points without Szarka. Give the small spot with the Lobos on the road.
Please note that we bet New Mexico at -3 -118 and posted that line in the BookmakersReview Forum Picks thread when it was available on Wednesday. But for write-up purposes only, we will track our record at the line below.
THE PICK
New Mexico -3.5 -108 -at Heritage
Remember that we already have more plays than this and will almost certainly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
The odds for this game are already like the final scores for small games.
