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College Football Picks for Week 10: Terrapins to Crawl to Home Cover vs. Hoosiers
We are now 5-1 in our last six NCAAF plays, as well as on a 12-2 All-Sports run with our write-ups. We are back for the Week 10 slate of a rapidly moving 2025 College Football season, highlighted by #2 Indiana visiting Maryland in Big 10 play and #15 Virginia traveling west to California in the ACC.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, November 1st – 3:30pm ET
Indiana has certainly earned its #2 ranking so far, entering this game 8-0 following a 56-6 demolition of UCLA last week, raising their average margin of victory to +34.9 points! With that said, we still think they are an overlay giving more than three touchdowns to a good defense on the road, so we are taking Maryland with the points.
If Games Were Three Quarters Long…
Yes, Indiana is truly one of the best teams in the country but let us not lose sight of the fact that the Terrapins can be 7-0 if they could figure out how to close out games. Instead, they are 4-3 after blowing leads in the fourth quarter in all three of their losses. Imagine how different this narrative would be if they held on to their leads in at least two of those games.
Still, we would love to see Maryland again be in the position of holding a fourth-quarter lead here with more than a three-touchdown cushion to work with. And remember that they had two weeks to prepare for a potentially overconfident Hoosiers’ squad following a bye last week. This may allow coach Mike Locksley to install wrinkles into an offense that has been overly reliant on true freshman quarterback Malik Washington.
Nonetheless, despite Maryland throwing the ball at the eighth highest rate in the country with 40.0 passes per game, Washington has exhibited poise that belies his age. He has been excellent at ball protection with only three interceptions, and he is not taking sacks as his 59.7% completion rate is taking a hit by knowing when to throw the ball away. He has still guided the Terrapins to 28.3 points per game without help from a mediocre running game to this point.
Hoosiers Facing a Stiff Defense This Week
The Hoosiers have gotten to the point where they may start to relax a bit with a perfect season in their sights. In any other year, next week’s meeting with Penn State would be considered their last remaining obstacle, but that now does not appear to be the case. Still, we feel that any complacency would make it hard to cover this enormous spread on the road vs. one of the best defenses they have faced all season, especially with Maryland having extra prep time.
Remember also that Indiana has played just two road games this year, and those are their only two wins by 10 points or less. Yes, winning by 10 points at Oregon is still extremely impressive, but winning by five points at Iowa while scoring only 20 points is not so much. Now they are visiting a Terps team that has been good defending the run (3.5 yards per rush) while also applying nice pressure in the passing game ranking 10th in the land in sacks.
We understand that it may take courage to get in front of this Indiana train right now, but the Hoosiers have been more vulnerable on the road and Maryland has the defense to hang around. Add the bye last week and bet on the Terrapins getting more than three touchdowns.
THE PICK
Maryland +22 -111 at Bookmaker
Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens vs Liberty Flames
Saturday, November 1st – 3:30pm ET
Delaware has made a surprisingly smooth transition in its first season in the FBS with a winning 4-3 record, while Liberty has underachieved with a 3-4 mark after having higher aspirations. However, we are looking for correcting efforts from both sides Saturday and are betting on the Flames as small home chalk.
Minicucci Facing Better Pass Defense
The Fightin’ Blue Hens immediate FBS success has been fueled by the arm of quarterback Nick Minicucci, who has already passed for 2,077 yards in seven games with 13 touchdown passes vs. only three interceptions. He has led the Flames to the 11th best passing offense in the country at 299.4 yards per game.
However, that passing offense is rated a considerably lower 55th on PFF, no doubt due to facing a bunch of suspect pass defenses so far. That is not the case here with Liberty ranked 18th in passing defense, allowing just 166.7 yards per game through the air. And unlike the Delaware passing offense, Liberty’s daunting pass-defense ranking is supported by the advance metrics, with the Flames ranking 22nd in Coverage and a respectable 33rd in Pressure.
Thus, we do not expect Minicucci to continue his success against probably the best defense he has faced at the FBS level on the road in hostile territory. That is bad news for a Delaware offense that had not gotten much from a rushing offense ranked 108th on the raw numbers at 120.3 yards per game and a not much better 89th in Rush Rating on PFF.
Flames Can Run Their Way to Victory
While the Liberty defense has performed well, the offense has disappointed while ranking 103rd in yards per game, ranking 64th in rushing yards and 109th in passing yards. To be fair though, that passing rank is held back by ranking 116th in passes per game, and the Flames are actually a good 34th in yards per completion at a gaudy 12.6.
However, we expect more from the running game here against a Delaware rush defense ranked 97th permitting 161.6 yards per game on the ground, as well as 81st in Tackling per PFF. And while the Flames’ offense has disappointed overall, they do have two running backs in Evan Dickens and Caden Williams that have each had five games with at least one Explosive Run this season. We see potential for several such runs here against a lacking Delaware run defense.
In the end, we see the Liberty defense shutting down Delaware’s Minicucci like no other defense has done this season, and for the Flames to bust off enough long runs to back the Flames as short favorites at home.
THE PICK
Liberty -3 -110 at Bookmaker
Virginia Cavaliers vs California Golden Bears
Saturday, November 1st – 3:45pm ET
While we are not normally fans of east coast ACC teams playing on the west coast, this is a case where we think that travel factors into this line a little too much. We have Virginia graded quite a bit better than California right now, so much so that our model has this line at -7.3 even with all the travel. This has us laying what looks like a short number with the Cavaliers.
Virginia Fundamentally Sound
Nobody predicted that Virginia would be a contender for the College Football Playoff before the season started, yet here they are sitting at 7-1 and undefeated in ACC play. Granted, they may not be as physically talented compared to some other teams, but they have made up for that so far by being fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball. Yes, we expect them to slip up eventually and fall short of a playoff bid, but we do not think that slip will come this week.
We mentioned last week that Havoc is a formula created by CFBStats that combines tackles for loss, pass breakups, turnovers and sacks. Well, Virginia enters this game 29th in the country in Offensive Havoc, pointing to a lack of those factors to derail drives. That has helped lead to ranking 32nd in the land in total offense at 436.9 yards per game with good balance, ranking 37th in rushing and 46th in passing.
Add in not shooting themselves in the foot very often per the Havoc ranking and the Cavaliers are 19th in scoring at 37.1 points per game. We expect that offensive success to continue here with Virginia controlling this game on the ground. The Cavs are Top 25 in offensive Stuff Rate while California ranks 134th defensively, as well as 90th in tackles for loss.
Pressure Gets to Sagapolutele
While Virginia has made very few mistakes offensively, the Golden Bears rank 98th in Offensive Havoc. That helps explain Cal ranking 105th in total offense at 341.1 yards per game. They are 133rd in rushing at a mere 87.4 yards per contest, and a deceptive 43rd in passing with 253.8 yards.
We say “deceptive” because Cal ranks 99th in passing per PFF and quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has not performed well when under pressure, with a high 6.3% Turnover Worthy Play Rate. Well, he should face Pressure from a Virginia defense rated 32nd in the department, and the Cavs are strong on the backend also ranking 31st in coverage.
Moreover, we have yet to mention that the Bears are 89th in scoring with 25.0 points per game with the Offensive Havoc playing a key role.
To recap, Virginia is good at not allowing Havoc offensively and is facing a team that does not apply too much pressure, while California is more prone to mistakes while facing a team that can get to the quarterback. Despite the cross-country travel, bet on Virginia to cover this spread of under a touchdown.
THE PICK
Virginia -5.5 -111 at Bet105
Remember that we have more plays than these and almost certainly will have more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
We are now 5-1 in our last six NCAAF plays, as well as on a 12-2 All-Sports run with our write-ups. We are back for the Week 10 slate of a rapidly moving 2025 College Football season, highlighted by #2 Indiana visiting Maryland in Big 10 play and #15 Virginia traveling west to California in the ACC.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, November 1st – 3:30pm ET
Indiana has certainly earned its #2 ranking so far, entering this game 8-0 following a 56-6 demolition of UCLA last week, raising their average margin of victory to +34.9 points! With that said, we still think they are an overlay giving more than three touchdowns to a good defense on the road, so we are taking Maryland with the points.
If Games Were Three Quarters Long…
Yes, Indiana is truly one of the best teams in the country but let us not lose sight of the fact that the Terrapins can be 7-0 if they could figure out how to close out games. Instead, they are 4-3 after blowing leads in the fourth quarter in all three of their losses. Imagine how different this narrative would be if they held on to their leads in at least two of those games.
Still, we would love to see Maryland again be in the position of holding a fourth-quarter lead here with more than a three-touchdown cushion to work with. And remember that they had two weeks to prepare for a potentially overconfident Hoosiers’ squad following a bye last week. This may allow coach Mike Locksley to install wrinkles into an offense that has been overly reliant on true freshman quarterback Malik Washington.
Nonetheless, despite Maryland throwing the ball at the eighth highest rate in the country with 40.0 passes per game, Washington has exhibited poise that belies his age. He has been excellent at ball protection with only three interceptions, and he is not taking sacks as his 59.7% completion rate is taking a hit by knowing when to throw the ball away. He has still guided the Terrapins to 28.3 points per game without help from a mediocre running game to this point.
Hoosiers Facing a Stiff Defense This Week
The Hoosiers have gotten to the point where they may start to relax a bit with a perfect season in their sights. In any other year, next week’s meeting with Penn State would be considered their last remaining obstacle, but that now does not appear to be the case. Still, we feel that any complacency would make it hard to cover this enormous spread on the road vs. one of the best defenses they have faced all season, especially with Maryland having extra prep time.
Remember also that Indiana has played just two road games this year, and those are their only two wins by 10 points or less. Yes, winning by 10 points at Oregon is still extremely impressive, but winning by five points at Iowa while scoring only 20 points is not so much. Now they are visiting a Terps team that has been good defending the run (3.5 yards per rush) while also applying nice pressure in the passing game ranking 10th in the land in sacks.
We understand that it may take courage to get in front of this Indiana train right now, but the Hoosiers have been more vulnerable on the road and Maryland has the defense to hang around. Add the bye last week and bet on the Terrapins getting more than three touchdowns.
THE PICK
Maryland +22 -111 at Bookmaker
Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens vs Liberty Flames
Saturday, November 1st – 3:30pm ET
Delaware has made a surprisingly smooth transition in its first season in the FBS with a winning 4-3 record, while Liberty has underachieved with a 3-4 mark after having higher aspirations. However, we are looking for correcting efforts from both sides Saturday and are betting on the Flames as small home chalk.
Minicucci Facing Better Pass Defense
The Fightin’ Blue Hens immediate FBS success has been fueled by the arm of quarterback Nick Minicucci, who has already passed for 2,077 yards in seven games with 13 touchdown passes vs. only three interceptions. He has led the Flames to the 11th best passing offense in the country at 299.4 yards per game.
However, that passing offense is rated a considerably lower 55th on PFF, no doubt due to facing a bunch of suspect pass defenses so far. That is not the case here with Liberty ranked 18th in passing defense, allowing just 166.7 yards per game through the air. And unlike the Delaware passing offense, Liberty’s daunting pass-defense ranking is supported by the advance metrics, with the Flames ranking 22nd in Coverage and a respectable 33rd in Pressure.
Thus, we do not expect Minicucci to continue his success against probably the best defense he has faced at the FBS level on the road in hostile territory. That is bad news for a Delaware offense that had not gotten much from a rushing offense ranked 108th on the raw numbers at 120.3 yards per game and a not much better 89th in Rush Rating on PFF.
Flames Can Run Their Way to Victory
While the Liberty defense has performed well, the offense has disappointed while ranking 103rd in yards per game, ranking 64th in rushing yards and 109th in passing yards. To be fair though, that passing rank is held back by ranking 116th in passes per game, and the Flames are actually a good 34th in yards per completion at a gaudy 12.6.
However, we expect more from the running game here against a Delaware rush defense ranked 97th permitting 161.6 yards per game on the ground, as well as 81st in Tackling per PFF. And while the Flames’ offense has disappointed overall, they do have two running backs in Evan Dickens and Caden Williams that have each had five games with at least one Explosive Run this season. We see potential for several such runs here against a lacking Delaware run defense.
In the end, we see the Liberty defense shutting down Delaware’s Minicucci like no other defense has done this season, and for the Flames to bust off enough long runs to back the Flames as short favorites at home.
THE PICK
Liberty -3 -110 at Bookmaker
Virginia Cavaliers vs California Golden Bears
Saturday, November 1st – 3:45pm ET
While we are not normally fans of east coast ACC teams playing on the west coast, this is a case where we think that travel factors into this line a little too much. We have Virginia graded quite a bit better than California right now, so much so that our model has this line at -7.3 even with all the travel. This has us laying what looks like a short number with the Cavaliers.
Virginia Fundamentally Sound
Nobody predicted that Virginia would be a contender for the College Football Playoff before the season started, yet here they are sitting at 7-1 and undefeated in ACC play. Granted, they may not be as physically talented compared to some other teams, but they have made up for that so far by being fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball. Yes, we expect them to slip up eventually and fall short of a playoff bid, but we do not think that slip will come this week.
We mentioned last week that Havoc is a formula created by CFBStats that combines tackles for loss, pass breakups, turnovers and sacks. Well, Virginia enters this game 29th in the country in Offensive Havoc, pointing to a lack of those factors to derail drives. That has helped lead to ranking 32nd in the land in total offense at 436.9 yards per game with good balance, ranking 37th in rushing and 46th in passing.
Add in not shooting themselves in the foot very often per the Havoc ranking and the Cavaliers are 19th in scoring at 37.1 points per game. We expect that offensive success to continue here with Virginia controlling this game on the ground. The Cavs are Top 25 in offensive Stuff Rate while California ranks 134th defensively, as well as 90th in tackles for loss.
Pressure Gets to Sagapolutele
While Virginia has made very few mistakes offensively, the Golden Bears rank 98th in Offensive Havoc. That helps explain Cal ranking 105th in total offense at 341.1 yards per game. They are 133rd in rushing at a mere 87.4 yards per contest, and a deceptive 43rd in passing with 253.8 yards.
We say “deceptive” because Cal ranks 99th in passing per PFF and quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has not performed well when under pressure, with a high 6.3% Turnover Worthy Play Rate. Well, he should face Pressure from a Virginia defense rated 32nd in the department, and the Cavs are strong on the backend also ranking 31st in coverage.
Moreover, we have yet to mention that the Bears are 89th in scoring with 25.0 points per game with the Offensive Havoc playing a key role.
To recap, Virginia is good at not allowing Havoc offensively and is facing a team that does not apply too much pressure, while California is more prone to mistakes while facing a team that can get to the quarterback. Despite the cross-country travel, bet on Virginia to cover this spread of under a touchdown.
THE PICK
Virginia -5.5 -111 at Bet105
Remember that we have more plays than these and almost certainly will have more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
