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College Football Bowl Picks for Friday: Sooner Schooner to Prevail in Norman
We had a dismal Wednesday with our write-ups going a combined 0-4 in NCAA Basketball and College Foottball, dropping our write-up record to 30-24 across All Sports. At least we are still a good 16-11 in NCAAF, and we now return with two more bowl picks for Friday highlighted by Alabama vs. Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff. Set your alarms since our first game kicks off at 11:00am ET.
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Friday, December 19th – 11:00am ET
We expect a couple of sleepy offenses in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, and no, it is not just because of the 11 AM kick-off. We are backing the Under when Kennesaw State takes on Western Michigan in South Carolina on Friday.
Owls Facing Legitimate Defense
Kennesaw State was a nice surprise after winning just two games in their first year on the FBS last year, following that up by going 10-3 and winning the Conference USA Championship. Their offense was relatively balanced while averaging 404.3 total yards per game, ranking 44th in passing offense and 66th in rushing offense, although the Owls did rely heavily on explosive plays.
That is an issue against Western Michigan. Yes, we know that the MAC is not known for great defense, but the Broncos’ amazing 13th ranking nationally in total defense appears to be legitimate based on their metrics. That is because WMU ranks in the top 35 in Rushing RPA allowed and in the top 20 in Passing Explosives Allowed, so they should have an answer for what Kennesaw wants to do.
Moreover, the Owls often bog down when they do get into scoring position, sitting outside the top 100 in Red Zone Scoring. Conversely, the Broncos are in the top 25 in Red Zone defense. The one question here is whether WMU defensive end Nadame Tucker, who is a game-changer, will opt out. If he does, we think the Western Michigan defense is still true to its ranking based on metrics. And if he plays, well, even better!
Broncos Chew Up Clock Running
Like Kennesaw State, Western Michigan was also a Group of 5 Champion this year while going 9-4 and winning the MAC, entering this bowl on a 4-game winning streak. The Broncos undeniably have a one-dimensional rushing offense, ranking 32nd in the country with 196.6 rushing yards per game and 132nd in passing at a paltry 139.9 yards through the air.
The time-consuming drives created by that run-heavy approach and the great WMU defense are both boons to this Under.
And frankly, we do not see Kennesaw being able to stop that rushing attack. Statistically, the Owls rank 108th in raw rushing defense. Schematically, Western Michigan relies heavily on an inside zone concept, and the Kennesaw defense has just a 35% Success Rate against inside zone.
So, to summarize, Western Michigan’s surprising defensive ranking is legitimized by their peripherals, while their offense can chew up time with successful running. All of that has us betting on the Under in Myrtle Beach.
Note that we bet on this Under at 48 -108 when that line was available earlier this week and posted that line on BookmakersReview Forum. For write-up purposes though, grading will be based on the line below.
THE PICK
Under 47.5 -108 at Heritage
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Friday, December 19th – 8:00pm ET
The first College Football Playoff quarterfinal of the year takes place in Norman on Friday night, and we are betting on homestanding Oklahoma when they host Alabama.
Sooners Already Won in Tuscaloosa
Let us start by saying that we disagree with the narrative that Alabama does not deserve to be in this Playoff, as they lost just two regular-season games while facing the third toughest SOS in the country per PFF. But on the other hand, one of those losses did come to these Sooners at home in Tuscaloosa, and the Tide is now playing a true road game in Norman.
While some may see this as a big revenge spot, we feel that Alabama still has the same fatal flaw they had in the first meeting, which is their inability to run the football. They managed only 80 rushing yards on 33 runs against a great Oklahoma defense in that meeting, and finished the season ranked just 118th in rushing offense overall while averaging a scant 3.6 yards per carry.
Sure, the Crimson Tide’s lack of a running game resulted in quarterback Ty Simpson passing for 326 yards in the first encounter, but we do not see a repeat performance of that here in hostile territory. Furthermore, Simpson should face more pressure in this game with Oklahoma defensive end R Mason Thomas, a potential NFL first-round pick, making his return from injury.
Sooners with Extra Week Off
Now, we understand that Oklahoma has underwhelmed offensively most of the season, finishing the year 101st in total offense, although their 26.4 points per game was good enough for a 10-2 record. That points to how good the defense played while ranking 10th in the land in total defense and 12th in scoring defense, permitting just 17.2 points per game.
Well, the Sooners could add some extra wrinkles on offense here having had three weeks off since ending their regular season. That is one more week to prepare that Alabama had, losing the SEC Championship Game to Georgia 28-7 on December 6th. But more critically, the extended time off has allowed the Sooners to heal up along the offensive line and at running back.
Regardless, for Oklahoma to win this game, their defense must continue to perform at the same elite level that it has all year. We think it will do just that against a one-dimensional Bama offense that simply cannot run the football, so we are backing the Sooners at home.
Note that we bet on this at Oklahoma +1 -108 when that line was available earlier this week and posted that line on BookmakersReview Forum. For write-up purposes though, grading will be based on the line below, which has now flipped.
THE PICK
Oklahoma -1 -106 at Bet105
Remember that we already have more bowl plays posted besides these and will almost certainly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
We had a dismal Wednesday with our write-ups going a combined 0-4 in NCAA Basketball and College Foottball, dropping our write-up record to 30-24 across All Sports. At least we are still a good 16-11 in NCAAF, and we now return with two more bowl picks for Friday highlighted by Alabama vs. Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff. Set your alarms since our first game kicks off at 11:00am ET.
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Friday, December 19th – 11:00am ET
We expect a couple of sleepy offenses in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, and no, it is not just because of the 11 AM kick-off. We are backing the Under when Kennesaw State takes on Western Michigan in South Carolina on Friday.
Owls Facing Legitimate Defense
Kennesaw State was a nice surprise after winning just two games in their first year on the FBS last year, following that up by going 10-3 and winning the Conference USA Championship. Their offense was relatively balanced while averaging 404.3 total yards per game, ranking 44th in passing offense and 66th in rushing offense, although the Owls did rely heavily on explosive plays.
That is an issue against Western Michigan. Yes, we know that the MAC is not known for great defense, but the Broncos’ amazing 13th ranking nationally in total defense appears to be legitimate based on their metrics. That is because WMU ranks in the top 35 in Rushing RPA allowed and in the top 20 in Passing Explosives Allowed, so they should have an answer for what Kennesaw wants to do.
Moreover, the Owls often bog down when they do get into scoring position, sitting outside the top 100 in Red Zone Scoring. Conversely, the Broncos are in the top 25 in Red Zone defense. The one question here is whether WMU defensive end Nadame Tucker, who is a game-changer, will opt out. If he does, we think the Western Michigan defense is still true to its ranking based on metrics. And if he plays, well, even better!
Broncos Chew Up Clock Running
Like Kennesaw State, Western Michigan was also a Group of 5 Champion this year while going 9-4 and winning the MAC, entering this bowl on a 4-game winning streak. The Broncos undeniably have a one-dimensional rushing offense, ranking 32nd in the country with 196.6 rushing yards per game and 132nd in passing at a paltry 139.9 yards through the air.
The time-consuming drives created by that run-heavy approach and the great WMU defense are both boons to this Under.
And frankly, we do not see Kennesaw being able to stop that rushing attack. Statistically, the Owls rank 108th in raw rushing defense. Schematically, Western Michigan relies heavily on an inside zone concept, and the Kennesaw defense has just a 35% Success Rate against inside zone.
So, to summarize, Western Michigan’s surprising defensive ranking is legitimized by their peripherals, while their offense can chew up time with successful running. All of that has us betting on the Under in Myrtle Beach.
Note that we bet on this Under at 48 -108 when that line was available earlier this week and posted that line on BookmakersReview Forum. For write-up purposes though, grading will be based on the line below.
THE PICK
Under 47.5 -108 at Heritage
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Friday, December 19th – 8:00pm ET
The first College Football Playoff quarterfinal of the year takes place in Norman on Friday night, and we are betting on homestanding Oklahoma when they host Alabama.
Sooners Already Won in Tuscaloosa
Let us start by saying that we disagree with the narrative that Alabama does not deserve to be in this Playoff, as they lost just two regular-season games while facing the third toughest SOS in the country per PFF. But on the other hand, one of those losses did come to these Sooners at home in Tuscaloosa, and the Tide is now playing a true road game in Norman.
While some may see this as a big revenge spot, we feel that Alabama still has the same fatal flaw they had in the first meeting, which is their inability to run the football. They managed only 80 rushing yards on 33 runs against a great Oklahoma defense in that meeting, and finished the season ranked just 118th in rushing offense overall while averaging a scant 3.6 yards per carry.
Sure, the Crimson Tide’s lack of a running game resulted in quarterback Ty Simpson passing for 326 yards in the first encounter, but we do not see a repeat performance of that here in hostile territory. Furthermore, Simpson should face more pressure in this game with Oklahoma defensive end R Mason Thomas, a potential NFL first-round pick, making his return from injury.
Sooners with Extra Week Off
Now, we understand that Oklahoma has underwhelmed offensively most of the season, finishing the year 101st in total offense, although their 26.4 points per game was good enough for a 10-2 record. That points to how good the defense played while ranking 10th in the land in total defense and 12th in scoring defense, permitting just 17.2 points per game.
Well, the Sooners could add some extra wrinkles on offense here having had three weeks off since ending their regular season. That is one more week to prepare that Alabama had, losing the SEC Championship Game to Georgia 28-7 on December 6th. But more critically, the extended time off has allowed the Sooners to heal up along the offensive line and at running back.
Regardless, for Oklahoma to win this game, their defense must continue to perform at the same elite level that it has all year. We think it will do just that against a one-dimensional Bama offense that simply cannot run the football, so we are backing the Sooners at home.
Note that we bet on this at Oklahoma +1 -108 when that line was available earlier this week and posted that line on BookmakersReview Forum. For write-up purposes though, grading will be based on the line below, which has now flipped.
THE PICK
Oklahoma -1 -106 at Bet105
Remember that we already have more bowl plays posted besides these and will almost certainly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
