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College Football Bowl Pick for Friday: Points Plentiful Enough in Peach Bowl
We are now 36-29 across All Sports and 22-14 in College Football with our write-ups after winning our bowl pick on Thursday. We now have another semifinal pick for Friday in Oregon vs. Indiana in the Fiesta Bowl.
Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Friday, January 9th – 7:30pm ET
As demonstrated in the 30-20 victory by Indiana at Oregon during the regular season, as great as these defenses are on paper, they are both weaker in an area that these opposing offenses can exploit. With that in mind, we are going Over the total in the Peach Bowl on Friday.
Hoosiers to Avoid Obvious Passing Downs
Top-ranked Indiana was dominant on both sides of the ball while obliterating Alabama 38-3 in the national semifinals to improve to a perfect 14-0. The Hoosiers are third in the country in total offense, fifth in yards per play overall at an amazing 7.0 and they boast the Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Fernando Mendoza. However, much like the regular season meeting, we think that their running game will key their offensive success here.
After all, the Hoosiers are not a one-man show as they also rank 8th in the land in rushing at 220.7 yards per game keyed by the tandem of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. Indiana rushed for 128 yards against an Oregon defense ranked 24th in rushing defense the first meeting, helping lead to going a perfect 5-fot-5 in Finishing Drives when entering the red zone. The rushing attack also helped offset a rather ordinary game for Mendoza where he threw for only 211 yards.
The key for Indiana that day was not getting into many obvious passing downs, as the Oregon pass defense ranks sixth in Coverage per PFF and 10th in contested catch rate. We expect more of the same from the Hoosiers here with the Ducks only mid-FBS against inside zone and gap blocking run schemes, areas where the Indiana running game flourishes.
Passing Success Expected from Moore
Oregon reached this point by shutting out Texas Tech 23-0 to get to 13-1, with the loss to these Hoosiers being the only blemish. We do not expect a repeat of that defensive performance against the great Indiana offense here, but at the same time, we do expect the Ducks to score points behind the passing of Dante Moore.
For starters, the Ducks are now healthier at wide receiver with Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. both returning healthy for the Texas Tech game. The presence of Moore particularly as an explosive option in the slot makes the entire Oregon offense tougher to defend. And besides, Moore simply must come up big with Indiana third in the country in rushing defense, and the Hoosiers have not allowed a rushing-touchdown in their last four games.
The good news for Oregon though is that Indiana has some vulnerabilities against the pass, and the Hoosier are not as good metrically as their 28th ranking in raw passing defense. To wit, Indiana ranks 46th in pass breakups, 62nd in contested catch rate and 82nd in EPA allowed on passing downs. On the plip side, Moore has not been phased while facing the Cover 3 that Indiana often employs on passing downs, posting an excellent 58% Success Rate.
So, while each defense has excellent frontline stats, we think that each offense is equipped to exploit those defenses’ few weaknesses just like when these teams combined for 50 points in the first meeting. Add in Oregon having healthier receivers and bet on the Over at a seemingly deflated number.
Note that we bet this Over at 46.6 when that line was available earlier this week and posted that line in the NCAAB Picks thread at BookmakersReview. But for write-up purposes only, grading will be based on the line below.
THE PICK
Over 48.5 -108 at Bookmaker
We are now 36-29 across All Sports and 22-14 in College Football with our write-ups after winning our bowl pick on Thursday. We now have another semifinal pick for Friday in Oregon vs. Indiana in the Fiesta Bowl.
Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Friday, January 9th – 7:30pm ET
As demonstrated in the 30-20 victory by Indiana at Oregon during the regular season, as great as these defenses are on paper, they are both weaker in an area that these opposing offenses can exploit. With that in mind, we are going Over the total in the Peach Bowl on Friday.
Hoosiers to Avoid Obvious Passing Downs
Top-ranked Indiana was dominant on both sides of the ball while obliterating Alabama 38-3 in the national semifinals to improve to a perfect 14-0. The Hoosiers are third in the country in total offense, fifth in yards per play overall at an amazing 7.0 and they boast the Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Fernando Mendoza. However, much like the regular season meeting, we think that their running game will key their offensive success here.
After all, the Hoosiers are not a one-man show as they also rank 8th in the land in rushing at 220.7 yards per game keyed by the tandem of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. Indiana rushed for 128 yards against an Oregon defense ranked 24th in rushing defense the first meeting, helping lead to going a perfect 5-fot-5 in Finishing Drives when entering the red zone. The rushing attack also helped offset a rather ordinary game for Mendoza where he threw for only 211 yards.
The key for Indiana that day was not getting into many obvious passing downs, as the Oregon pass defense ranks sixth in Coverage per PFF and 10th in contested catch rate. We expect more of the same from the Hoosiers here with the Ducks only mid-FBS against inside zone and gap blocking run schemes, areas where the Indiana running game flourishes.
Passing Success Expected from Moore
Oregon reached this point by shutting out Texas Tech 23-0 to get to 13-1, with the loss to these Hoosiers being the only blemish. We do not expect a repeat of that defensive performance against the great Indiana offense here, but at the same time, we do expect the Ducks to score points behind the passing of Dante Moore.
For starters, the Ducks are now healthier at wide receiver with Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. both returning healthy for the Texas Tech game. The presence of Moore particularly as an explosive option in the slot makes the entire Oregon offense tougher to defend. And besides, Moore simply must come up big with Indiana third in the country in rushing defense, and the Hoosiers have not allowed a rushing-touchdown in their last four games.
The good news for Oregon though is that Indiana has some vulnerabilities against the pass, and the Hoosier are not as good metrically as their 28th ranking in raw passing defense. To wit, Indiana ranks 46th in pass breakups, 62nd in contested catch rate and 82nd in EPA allowed on passing downs. On the plip side, Moore has not been phased while facing the Cover 3 that Indiana often employs on passing downs, posting an excellent 58% Success Rate.
So, while each defense has excellent frontline stats, we think that each offense is equipped to exploit those defenses’ few weaknesses just like when these teams combined for 50 points in the first meeting. Add in Oregon having healthier receivers and bet on the Over at a seemingly deflated number.
Note that we bet this Over at 46.6 when that line was available earlier this week and posted that line in the NCAAB Picks thread at BookmakersReview. But for write-up purposes only, grading will be based on the line below.
THE PICK
Over 48.5 -108 at Bookmaker
