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NCAA Basketball Picks for Wednesday: Many Points in Milwaukee in Big East Clash
We remain 30-20 across All Sports with our write-ups with one bowl play pending on Wednesday. Today we are pivoting to NCAA Basketball, where we are a disappointing 7-9 with our write-ups despite being 61-43-1, +15.68 in our NCAAB Picks threads. We have three totals, highlighted by a Big East clash between Georgetown and Marquette on FS1.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Tulane Green Wave
Wednesday, December 17th – 7:30pm ET
We feel that this posted total is a bit light in New Orleans on Wednesday, so we are backing the Over when Louisiana Tech visits Tulane on ESPN+.
Tulane Protects Ball with Decent Pace
Tulane is off to a nice 7-4 start, and they own the best win by either of these teams, a 93-90 shootout win over Boston College of the ACC. They are above average offensively even while ranking 136th in efficiency per Kenpom with a rating of 109.7 (national average 108.0). At the same time, they are poor on the other end, ranking 314th in defensive efficiency, which in itself makes this posted total seem low.
The Green Wave have managed 75.5 points per game despite the mediocre efficiency thanks to excellent ball protection while playing at an above average pace. They rank a great 18th in offensive turnover percentage at only 14.1% (national average 17.6%) while averaging 16.8 seconds per possession. Thus, we see Tulane getting into the 70s here.
Second Chances and Facing Bad Defense
We also think that Louisiana Tech could break 70 points, and both teams getting into the 70s would ensure cashing this Over ticket. The Bulldogs are 6-3 while averaging 71.4 points per game and they can surpass that average here considering that Tulane is 311th in eFG% allowed at a generous 55.5%.
Now, we get that the Bulldogs are not a good shooting team with an eFG% of just 46.5%, but they have boosted their scoring average with many second chances, and we look for that to continue tonight. That is because LA Tech is safely above average in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.2% (average 31.1%) while Tulane ranks 277th in defensive rebounding percentage.
And of course, the Bulldogs may shoot the ball better tonight against a terrible defense.
With both teams seemingly having a path to 70 points, we are betting on the Over here with this total in the 130s.
THE PICK
Over 138 -104 at Bookmaker
Georgetown Hoyas vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Wednesday, December 17th – 8:30pm ET
We foresee a high scoring Big East matchup in Milwaukee on Wednesday, so we are betting on the Over when Georgetown visits Marquette at Fiserv Forum on FS1.
Hoyas Have Five Players in Double Figures
Georgetown is 7-3 overall with the Over identically going 7-3 in those games. They average 78.2 points per game with amazing balance. That is because while KJ Lewis is their leading scorer with 16.7 points per game, he is one of five players averaging double digits, including Malik Mack following closely behind at 15.7 PPG.
The Hoyas are adept at working to find the best shot because this team simply does not turn the over. They are second in the nation in offensive turnover percentage at a mere 12.5%, trailing only their fellow Big East members from Xavier. And they have done that while playing an above average pace of 16.6 seconds per possession (national average 17.2 seconds).
Good Non-Conference Schedule for Eagles
Marquette has a losing 5-6 record entering this Big East opener for both teams, but to their credit, they did have a tough non-conference schedule. Five of their six losses have come to teams currently ranked 37th or better on Kenpom, with the one outlier being a loss to 100th ranked Maryland. Well, even those Terrapins are ranked a tad higher than their opponents from Georgetown here at 102nd.
The Golden Eagles have still managed to score 78.9 points per game despite facing some great defenses, so facing a Hoyas team ranked 109th in defensive efficiency and 110th in eFG% allowed could be considered a respite. And while Marquette does not rank as highly as Georgetown in offensive turnover percentage, they are still at a better than average 15.5% while facing the stronger schedule. That should continue with the Hoyas 169th in turnovers forced.
With Georgetown being a tough team to defend with their balanced scoring and the Marquette offense expected to round to form with a drop in defenses faced, we are going Over in this Big East opener.
THE PICK
Over 150 -108 at Heritage
Texas-Arlington Mavericks vs Stanford Cardinal
Wednesday, December 17th – 10:00pm ET
We are looking for more points than this posted total suggests on the west coast late Wednesday night. So, we are supporting the Over when UT Arlington visits Stanford on ACC Network Extra.
Stanford Could Score 80
Stanford is off to a great start at 8-2 while averaging 82.2 points per game. The bad news is that output has come against an easy schedule ranked 262nd per Kenpom, and their defense is 228th in eFG% allowed despite the easy slate. The good news though is that the competition is not much tougher tonight with UT Arlington ranked 166th overall.
The Cardinal may not excel in any offensive component, but they are solid across the board with above average rankings in efficiency, eFG%, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding. That combination has led to scoring at least 77 points in seven of their 10 games. The news is not as good on the defensive side where Stanford ranks 112th in average points allowed, but that is good news for the Over in this spot.
Can UTA reach mid 60s?
If we are correct about Stanford approaching 80 points here, then Arlington only reaching the mid to upper 60s would be enough to push this game Over. Well, the Mavericks are off to a fine 7-3 start of their own, and while they only rank 158th in scoring, that average of 74.3 points would probably do nicely in this situation.
Now, we do get that UTA is only 252nd in eFG% at 48.6%, but they have padded their scoring with offensive rebounding, ranking a good 40th in that area at 37.4%. We also understand that their defense looks good on paper with a 57th ranking in eFG% allowed at 47.1%, but they have faced many poor offenses thus far while ranked 244th in offensive schedule faced per Kenpom components.
The bottom line here is that we see this contest getting into the low 150s, making the Over the bet at this posted total late Wednesday night.
THE PICK
Over 144.5 -108 at Bet105
We already have one more play posted besides these three and we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We remain 30-20 across All Sports with our write-ups with one bowl play pending on Wednesday. Today we are pivoting to NCAA Basketball, where we are a disappointing 7-9 with our write-ups despite being 61-43-1, +15.68 in our NCAAB Picks threads. We have three totals, highlighted by a Big East clash between Georgetown and Marquette on FS1.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Tulane Green Wave
Wednesday, December 17th – 7:30pm ET
We feel that this posted total is a bit light in New Orleans on Wednesday, so we are backing the Over when Louisiana Tech visits Tulane on ESPN+.
Tulane Protects Ball with Decent Pace
Tulane is off to a nice 7-4 start, and they own the best win by either of these teams, a 93-90 shootout win over Boston College of the ACC. They are above average offensively even while ranking 136th in efficiency per Kenpom with a rating of 109.7 (national average 108.0). At the same time, they are poor on the other end, ranking 314th in defensive efficiency, which in itself makes this posted total seem low.
The Green Wave have managed 75.5 points per game despite the mediocre efficiency thanks to excellent ball protection while playing at an above average pace. They rank a great 18th in offensive turnover percentage at only 14.1% (national average 17.6%) while averaging 16.8 seconds per possession. Thus, we see Tulane getting into the 70s here.
Second Chances and Facing Bad Defense
We also think that Louisiana Tech could break 70 points, and both teams getting into the 70s would ensure cashing this Over ticket. The Bulldogs are 6-3 while averaging 71.4 points per game and they can surpass that average here considering that Tulane is 311th in eFG% allowed at a generous 55.5%.
Now, we get that the Bulldogs are not a good shooting team with an eFG% of just 46.5%, but they have boosted their scoring average with many second chances, and we look for that to continue tonight. That is because LA Tech is safely above average in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.2% (average 31.1%) while Tulane ranks 277th in defensive rebounding percentage.
And of course, the Bulldogs may shoot the ball better tonight against a terrible defense.
With both teams seemingly having a path to 70 points, we are betting on the Over here with this total in the 130s.
THE PICK
Over 138 -104 at Bookmaker
Georgetown Hoyas vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Wednesday, December 17th – 8:30pm ET
We foresee a high scoring Big East matchup in Milwaukee on Wednesday, so we are betting on the Over when Georgetown visits Marquette at Fiserv Forum on FS1.
Hoyas Have Five Players in Double Figures
Georgetown is 7-3 overall with the Over identically going 7-3 in those games. They average 78.2 points per game with amazing balance. That is because while KJ Lewis is their leading scorer with 16.7 points per game, he is one of five players averaging double digits, including Malik Mack following closely behind at 15.7 PPG.
The Hoyas are adept at working to find the best shot because this team simply does not turn the over. They are second in the nation in offensive turnover percentage at a mere 12.5%, trailing only their fellow Big East members from Xavier. And they have done that while playing an above average pace of 16.6 seconds per possession (national average 17.2 seconds).
Good Non-Conference Schedule for Eagles
Marquette has a losing 5-6 record entering this Big East opener for both teams, but to their credit, they did have a tough non-conference schedule. Five of their six losses have come to teams currently ranked 37th or better on Kenpom, with the one outlier being a loss to 100th ranked Maryland. Well, even those Terrapins are ranked a tad higher than their opponents from Georgetown here at 102nd.
The Golden Eagles have still managed to score 78.9 points per game despite facing some great defenses, so facing a Hoyas team ranked 109th in defensive efficiency and 110th in eFG% allowed could be considered a respite. And while Marquette does not rank as highly as Georgetown in offensive turnover percentage, they are still at a better than average 15.5% while facing the stronger schedule. That should continue with the Hoyas 169th in turnovers forced.
With Georgetown being a tough team to defend with their balanced scoring and the Marquette offense expected to round to form with a drop in defenses faced, we are going Over in this Big East opener.
THE PICK
Over 150 -108 at Heritage
Texas-Arlington Mavericks vs Stanford Cardinal
Wednesday, December 17th – 10:00pm ET
We are looking for more points than this posted total suggests on the west coast late Wednesday night. So, we are supporting the Over when UT Arlington visits Stanford on ACC Network Extra.
Stanford Could Score 80
Stanford is off to a great start at 8-2 while averaging 82.2 points per game. The bad news is that output has come against an easy schedule ranked 262nd per Kenpom, and their defense is 228th in eFG% allowed despite the easy slate. The good news though is that the competition is not much tougher tonight with UT Arlington ranked 166th overall.
The Cardinal may not excel in any offensive component, but they are solid across the board with above average rankings in efficiency, eFG%, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding. That combination has led to scoring at least 77 points in seven of their 10 games. The news is not as good on the defensive side where Stanford ranks 112th in average points allowed, but that is good news for the Over in this spot.
Can UTA reach mid 60s?
If we are correct about Stanford approaching 80 points here, then Arlington only reaching the mid to upper 60s would be enough to push this game Over. Well, the Mavericks are off to a fine 7-3 start of their own, and while they only rank 158th in scoring, that average of 74.3 points would probably do nicely in this situation.
Now, we do get that UTA is only 252nd in eFG% at 48.6%, but they have padded their scoring with offensive rebounding, ranking a good 40th in that area at 37.4%. We also understand that their defense looks good on paper with a 57th ranking in eFG% allowed at 47.1%, but they have faced many poor offenses thus far while ranked 244th in offensive schedule faced per Kenpom components.
The bottom line here is that we see this contest getting into the low 150s, making the Over the bet at this posted total late Wednesday night.
THE PICK
Over 144.5 -108 at Bet105
We already have one more play posted besides these three and we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
