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NCAA Basketball Picks for Wednesday: Points Are Hard in Houston
We finally had a losing 1-2 night in NCAA Basketball on Tuesday, but we are still 3-2 season-to-date and on a 19-6 All-Sports run with our write-ups. We now have two NCAAB plays for Wednesday, including Oakland taking on the AP #1 team in Houston on ESPN+.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Houston Cougars
Wednesday, November 12th – 8:00pm ET
The #1 team in the nation on the AP Poll, the Houston Cougars, are in action on Wednesday and we expect the probable best defense in the country to key an Under when hosting Oakland in the Fertitta Center.
How Will Oakland Score?
Houston is currently ranked third overall on Kenpom despite topping the polls, but they remain first in defensive efficiency at an obscene 89.0 points per 100 possessions (national average 106.9 points). That is nothing new for a Cougars team that led the nation in defensive efficiency last season and has been inside the Top 10 in that metric every year since the 2020-21 season.
They have played a couple of snooze-fests while going 2-0 so far, beating Lehigh 75-57 and Towson 65-48 with neither game reaching 70 possessions. That is par-for-the-course for Houston, as besides playing stifling defense, they are also extremely methodical offensively while ranking 355th out of 365 Division I teams in Tempo Rating at 67.1.
Perhaps the most surprising thing about this matchup though is that Oakland has the longer average possession length at 18.1 seconds (272nd) compared to 17.4 seconds (217th) for the Cougs. That has not helped the Golden Grizzlies though as they rank 125th in offensive efficiency and 178th in eFG%. That combination of mediocre at best offense and limited possessions expected has us thinking that Oakland will not get out of the 50s this game.
Pace Keeps Houston Score Down Too
While Houston probably has the best defense in the land, they are also 25th in offensive efficiency. However, they have not shot the ball well in the early going despite not facing much, ranking 211th in eFG% at 48.4%. They have also been atypically sloppy with the basketball while ranking 207th in offensive turnover percentage.
While we have no doubt they will improve in those areas, one thing that will never change is Houston’s plodding style of play, and that should get magnified tonight with their opponent averaging a longer possession length. So, if we are correct about Oakland not getting out of the 50s, we do not see Houston scoring enough either to reach this posted total after averaging 70.0 points through two games.
This combination of two slow-paced teams and neither team shooting the ball well through two games has us betting on the Under in Houston on Wednesday.
THE PICK
Under 137 -113 at Bet105
Southern Illinois Salukis vs Nevada Wolf Pack
Wednesday, November 12th – 10:00pm ET
We think that there is an inflated total in Reno on Wednesday night, as we expect homestanding Nevada to control the pace at home here, leading us to bet on the Under against Southern Illinois.
Rebounding Edge on Both Ends
Nevada is off to a 2-0 start with both games being slow paced with neither reaching 70 possessions, leading to a 336th ranking in Tempo Rating at 68.8. That makes for a contrast in styles here facing a Southern Illinois team that has been running up and down the floor, but we do not expect that to be the case tonight.
The main reason for that is we expect the Wolf Pack to dominate the glass in this game, simultaneously extending possessions on offense and constantly limiting the Salukis to one shot in on defense. This is because Nevada ranks 12th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage while Southern Illinois is 130th in offensive rebounding. The same edge holds true on the other end, with the Wolf Pack 22nd in offensive rebounding and the Salukis 228th defensively.
Also, Nevada has not shot well so far even with all the second chances on offense, ranking 217th in eFG% at 48.2%.
Southern Illinois Offense Not Sustainable
Now, Southern Illinois enters this game 2-0 while playing at the fourth fastest pace in the nation with an average possession length of 12.9 seconds. They also lead the land in eFG% at an incredible 69.7%, keyed by ranking second in 2-point shooting at a blistering 72.9%. And yet, Kenpom rates the Salukis 122nd in offensive efficiency?
That speaks volumes about the competition that SIU has faced in the first two games. They opened the year by scoring 83 points against a sub-division opponent in McKendree and then put up 101 on a Kansas City team ranked 336th overall on Kenpom and 343rd in defensive efficiency. Nevada may not be elite defensively, but at least they are better than average with a defensive efficiency of 101.1 compared to the national average of 106.0.
And besides the Salukis’ offensive success being unsustainable, remember that they should also be held back by Nevada getting this game at their controlled pace by dominating the glass.
In the end, we except a slow pace here between a team that has not shot well in Nevada and a team that is in for extreme offensive regression in Southern Illinois. That sounds like a nice recipe to go Under this total.
THE PICK
Under 148 -106 at Bet105
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We finally had a losing 1-2 night in NCAA Basketball on Tuesday, but we are still 3-2 season-to-date and on a 19-6 All-Sports run with our write-ups. We now have two NCAAB plays for Wednesday, including Oakland taking on the AP #1 team in Houston on ESPN+.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Houston Cougars
Wednesday, November 12th – 8:00pm ET
The #1 team in the nation on the AP Poll, the Houston Cougars, are in action on Wednesday and we expect the probable best defense in the country to key an Under when hosting Oakland in the Fertitta Center.
How Will Oakland Score?
Houston is currently ranked third overall on Kenpom despite topping the polls, but they remain first in defensive efficiency at an obscene 89.0 points per 100 possessions (national average 106.9 points). That is nothing new for a Cougars team that led the nation in defensive efficiency last season and has been inside the Top 10 in that metric every year since the 2020-21 season.
They have played a couple of snooze-fests while going 2-0 so far, beating Lehigh 75-57 and Towson 65-48 with neither game reaching 70 possessions. That is par-for-the-course for Houston, as besides playing stifling defense, they are also extremely methodical offensively while ranking 355th out of 365 Division I teams in Tempo Rating at 67.1.
Perhaps the most surprising thing about this matchup though is that Oakland has the longer average possession length at 18.1 seconds (272nd) compared to 17.4 seconds (217th) for the Cougs. That has not helped the Golden Grizzlies though as they rank 125th in offensive efficiency and 178th in eFG%. That combination of mediocre at best offense and limited possessions expected has us thinking that Oakland will not get out of the 50s this game.
Pace Keeps Houston Score Down Too
While Houston probably has the best defense in the land, they are also 25th in offensive efficiency. However, they have not shot the ball well in the early going despite not facing much, ranking 211th in eFG% at 48.4%. They have also been atypically sloppy with the basketball while ranking 207th in offensive turnover percentage.
While we have no doubt they will improve in those areas, one thing that will never change is Houston’s plodding style of play, and that should get magnified tonight with their opponent averaging a longer possession length. So, if we are correct about Oakland not getting out of the 50s, we do not see Houston scoring enough either to reach this posted total after averaging 70.0 points through two games.
This combination of two slow-paced teams and neither team shooting the ball well through two games has us betting on the Under in Houston on Wednesday.
THE PICK
Under 137 -113 at Bet105
Southern Illinois Salukis vs Nevada Wolf Pack
Wednesday, November 12th – 10:00pm ET
We think that there is an inflated total in Reno on Wednesday night, as we expect homestanding Nevada to control the pace at home here, leading us to bet on the Under against Southern Illinois.
Rebounding Edge on Both Ends
Nevada is off to a 2-0 start with both games being slow paced with neither reaching 70 possessions, leading to a 336th ranking in Tempo Rating at 68.8. That makes for a contrast in styles here facing a Southern Illinois team that has been running up and down the floor, but we do not expect that to be the case tonight.
The main reason for that is we expect the Wolf Pack to dominate the glass in this game, simultaneously extending possessions on offense and constantly limiting the Salukis to one shot in on defense. This is because Nevada ranks 12th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage while Southern Illinois is 130th in offensive rebounding. The same edge holds true on the other end, with the Wolf Pack 22nd in offensive rebounding and the Salukis 228th defensively.
Also, Nevada has not shot well so far even with all the second chances on offense, ranking 217th in eFG% at 48.2%.
Southern Illinois Offense Not Sustainable
Now, Southern Illinois enters this game 2-0 while playing at the fourth fastest pace in the nation with an average possession length of 12.9 seconds. They also lead the land in eFG% at an incredible 69.7%, keyed by ranking second in 2-point shooting at a blistering 72.9%. And yet, Kenpom rates the Salukis 122nd in offensive efficiency?
That speaks volumes about the competition that SIU has faced in the first two games. They opened the year by scoring 83 points against a sub-division opponent in McKendree and then put up 101 on a Kansas City team ranked 336th overall on Kenpom and 343rd in defensive efficiency. Nevada may not be elite defensively, but at least they are better than average with a defensive efficiency of 101.1 compared to the national average of 106.0.
And besides the Salukis’ offensive success being unsustainable, remember that they should also be held back by Nevada getting this game at their controlled pace by dominating the glass.
In the end, we except a slow pace here between a team that has not shot well in Nevada and a team that is in for extreme offensive regression in Southern Illinois. That sounds like a nice recipe to go Under this total.
THE PICK
Under 148 -106 at Bet105
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
