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NCAA Basketball Picks for Tuesday: Demon Deacons to Conquer Sooners at Home
We are still a solid 26-15 across All Sports with all our write-ups after a 2-2 weekend split in college football. We now shift to NCAA Basketball Tuesday, where we look to improve our 5-5 write-up record (despite being 40-25 in all NCAAB plays in our Picks thread) with three plays highlighted by Oklahoma vs. Wake Forest in the ACC/SEC Challenge.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Tuesday, December 2nd – 7:00pm ET
The ACC/SEC Challenge begins Tuesday night, and we are giving the points at home with Wake Forest when they host Oklahoma in Winston-Salem.
Wake Should Get Second Chances
Wake Forest enters this game with a 6-2 record and ranked 50th overall on Kenpom. The two losses came against the current Kenpom #1 team in Michigan and #28 Texas Tech, both on neutral courts. They also have one Top 100 win over #70 Memphis.
These teams have very similar Kenpom profiles offensively, but the Oklahoma defense has three major flaws that we feel will be the difference in this game. The Sooners rank 237th in defensive rebounding percentage, so we expect the Demon Deacons to generate a lot of second chances given their 46th ranking in offensive rebounding percentage.
Oklahoma also does not apply much pressure, ranking 218th in turnover percentage forced, which should allow Wake to run their offense efficiently as their offensive turnover percentage of 16.0% is below the national average of 17.7%. The third major flaw for the Sooners is ranking 280th in 3-point defense at 36.4%. That is an area where the Deacons are just average offensively at 33.8% (national average 33.2%), but they may improve on that here with less resistance.
Sooners May Have More Turnovers than Usual?
The Sooners are 5-2 with neither loss being bad, although one was to a #50 Nebraska team ranked 10 spots lower than Wake Forest overall. The other loss was to #5 Gonzaga, with the best Oklahoma win coming vs. 79th ranked Marquette by one point in their last game on Friday. It is also worth noting that the Sooners are the noticeably lower ranked team on Kenpom in this matchup at #62.
While the Oklahoma defense is flawed, the Wake defense ranks 31st in efficiency without any major weakness in any component. And unlike the Sooners, the Demon Deacons do apply pressure ranking 17th in turnover percentage forced at a nice 22.5%. Oklahoma relies on ball protection, ranking 11th in offensive turnover percentage, but that will get tested here facing a better defense.
The bottom line is that the two offenses grade out relatively close but Wake Forest has the better defense by a good margin. Add in home court advantage and bet on the Demon Deacons as moderate favorites.
THE PICK
Wake Forest -4.5 -108 at Heritage
South Alabama Jaguars vs. New Mexico State Aggies
Tuesday, December 2nd – 7:00pm ET
We foresee an outright win for the small underdog on a neutral site Tuesday night, but our official play is taking the tiny spread with South Alabama when they take on New Mexico State in Katy, TX.
Undefeated, But Against Who?
New Mexico State is off to one of the best starts in school history at 6-0, but that still only merits them a 114th overall ranking on Kenpom. Moreover, the Aggies are not a great offensive team, ranking 168th in efficiency and 246th in eFG%, and that is despite facing a schedule ranked 292nd so far per Kenpom.
The highest ranked Kenpom team they have beaten so far is New Mexico, which would have been more impressive in recent years than this season with the Lobos ranked only 107th. Besides that, the Aggies beat teams ranked 130th, 228th and 337th along with two sub-division schools. That is not exactly a Who’s Who of the nation’s elite!
Now granted, New Mexico State ranks a decent 78th in defensive efficiency and an outstanding fifth in eFG% allowed, keyed by ranking fourth in 3-point defense at a scant 23.4%. But again, we go back to the schedule where their opponents rank 354th out of 365 in Division I teams in Kenpom offensive components.
USA Better Shooting Team, Protects Ball
Now, South Alabama is also off to a great start at 7-1, although to be fair, they have also faced a weak schedule. Still, at least they have a pulse offensively and they should be able to run it basically unhindered in this spot.
The Jaguars rank 133rd in offensive efficiency, but at an above average eFG% of 52.6% (national average 51.0%). Their best trait is protecting the basketball while ranking 24th in offensive turnover percentage at only 13.7%, and they should face little resistance from a NMST defense ranked 194th in turnover percentage forced.
Moreover, the Jaguars have the taller lineup here, which should give them an edge on the glass. While New Mexico basically employs a 3-guard set, South Alabama starts three big men with Peyton Law being one of the better offensive rebounders in the Sun Belt Conference.
In the end, South Alabama’s ability to generate points without turning the ball over should prove crucial against a New Mexico State team the remains offensively challenged despite being undefeated. We are not opposed to the South Alabama money line here, but we opted to take the 1.5 points with that number available at + odds.
THE PICK
South Alabama +1.5 +102 at Bet105
UC San Diego Tritons vs Nevada Wolf Pack
Tuesday, December 2nd – 10:00pm ET
Even though UC San Diego is undefeated while Nevada already has three losses, we still rate the Wolf Pack as the better team from the better conference, so we are giving the points at home in Reno on Tuesday.
Beat Nobody of Note
The Tritons are having their best year since joining Division I for the 2020-21 season, currently sitting undefeated at 7-0. However, they are 101st overall on Kenpom due to not beating any team ranked higher than 121st, including one sub-division school, making tonight’s game their toughest of the season, and in a true road game to boot.
Sure, UCSD ranks an amazing second in the land in eFG% at 62.9% while ranking fourth in 3-pount shooting and 14th in 2-point shooting. But we mentioned the weak schedule faced, a schedule ranked 241st overall and 252nd in Kenpom defensive components. They also played in just one true road game, which was their closest call in a five-point win at 155th ranked Fresno State.
Competitive Against Tougher
Nevada is off to a nondescript 5-3 start, but they have faced the much tougher schedule ranked more than 100 places higher than the Tritons’ slate, at 129th. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack return home after perhaps their best game of the season on Friday, beating what we feel is a good San Franisco team 81-65 on a neutral floor.
Two of the three losses have come to teams ranked in the Kenpom Top 60, a caliber that UCSD has yet to face this season, let alone beat. And let us not forget that Nevada hails from the much stronger conference, with the Mountain West ranked sixth overall per Kenpom, making it the highest ranked conference after the Power 5! Meanwhile, the Big West ranks just 15th.
It seems to us that this line is deflated due to the records of these two teams, as well as the Tritons’ unsustainable shooting early on. Thus, we are betting Nevada at a manageable number at home.
THE PICK
Nevada -4.5 -104 at Bookmaker
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We are still a solid 26-15 across All Sports with all our write-ups after a 2-2 weekend split in college football. We now shift to NCAA Basketball Tuesday, where we look to improve our 5-5 write-up record (despite being 40-25 in all NCAAB plays in our Picks thread) with three plays highlighted by Oklahoma vs. Wake Forest in the ACC/SEC Challenge.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Tuesday, December 2nd – 7:00pm ET
The ACC/SEC Challenge begins Tuesday night, and we are giving the points at home with Wake Forest when they host Oklahoma in Winston-Salem.
Wake Should Get Second Chances
Wake Forest enters this game with a 6-2 record and ranked 50th overall on Kenpom. The two losses came against the current Kenpom #1 team in Michigan and #28 Texas Tech, both on neutral courts. They also have one Top 100 win over #70 Memphis.
These teams have very similar Kenpom profiles offensively, but the Oklahoma defense has three major flaws that we feel will be the difference in this game. The Sooners rank 237th in defensive rebounding percentage, so we expect the Demon Deacons to generate a lot of second chances given their 46th ranking in offensive rebounding percentage.
Oklahoma also does not apply much pressure, ranking 218th in turnover percentage forced, which should allow Wake to run their offense efficiently as their offensive turnover percentage of 16.0% is below the national average of 17.7%. The third major flaw for the Sooners is ranking 280th in 3-point defense at 36.4%. That is an area where the Deacons are just average offensively at 33.8% (national average 33.2%), but they may improve on that here with less resistance.
Sooners May Have More Turnovers than Usual?
The Sooners are 5-2 with neither loss being bad, although one was to a #50 Nebraska team ranked 10 spots lower than Wake Forest overall. The other loss was to #5 Gonzaga, with the best Oklahoma win coming vs. 79th ranked Marquette by one point in their last game on Friday. It is also worth noting that the Sooners are the noticeably lower ranked team on Kenpom in this matchup at #62.
While the Oklahoma defense is flawed, the Wake defense ranks 31st in efficiency without any major weakness in any component. And unlike the Sooners, the Demon Deacons do apply pressure ranking 17th in turnover percentage forced at a nice 22.5%. Oklahoma relies on ball protection, ranking 11th in offensive turnover percentage, but that will get tested here facing a better defense.
The bottom line is that the two offenses grade out relatively close but Wake Forest has the better defense by a good margin. Add in home court advantage and bet on the Demon Deacons as moderate favorites.
THE PICK
Wake Forest -4.5 -108 at Heritage
South Alabama Jaguars vs. New Mexico State Aggies
Tuesday, December 2nd – 7:00pm ET
We foresee an outright win for the small underdog on a neutral site Tuesday night, but our official play is taking the tiny spread with South Alabama when they take on New Mexico State in Katy, TX.
Undefeated, But Against Who?
New Mexico State is off to one of the best starts in school history at 6-0, but that still only merits them a 114th overall ranking on Kenpom. Moreover, the Aggies are not a great offensive team, ranking 168th in efficiency and 246th in eFG%, and that is despite facing a schedule ranked 292nd so far per Kenpom.
The highest ranked Kenpom team they have beaten so far is New Mexico, which would have been more impressive in recent years than this season with the Lobos ranked only 107th. Besides that, the Aggies beat teams ranked 130th, 228th and 337th along with two sub-division schools. That is not exactly a Who’s Who of the nation’s elite!
Now granted, New Mexico State ranks a decent 78th in defensive efficiency and an outstanding fifth in eFG% allowed, keyed by ranking fourth in 3-point defense at a scant 23.4%. But again, we go back to the schedule where their opponents rank 354th out of 365 in Division I teams in Kenpom offensive components.
USA Better Shooting Team, Protects Ball
Now, South Alabama is also off to a great start at 7-1, although to be fair, they have also faced a weak schedule. Still, at least they have a pulse offensively and they should be able to run it basically unhindered in this spot.
The Jaguars rank 133rd in offensive efficiency, but at an above average eFG% of 52.6% (national average 51.0%). Their best trait is protecting the basketball while ranking 24th in offensive turnover percentage at only 13.7%, and they should face little resistance from a NMST defense ranked 194th in turnover percentage forced.
Moreover, the Jaguars have the taller lineup here, which should give them an edge on the glass. While New Mexico basically employs a 3-guard set, South Alabama starts three big men with Peyton Law being one of the better offensive rebounders in the Sun Belt Conference.
In the end, South Alabama’s ability to generate points without turning the ball over should prove crucial against a New Mexico State team the remains offensively challenged despite being undefeated. We are not opposed to the South Alabama money line here, but we opted to take the 1.5 points with that number available at + odds.
THE PICK
South Alabama +1.5 +102 at Bet105
UC San Diego Tritons vs Nevada Wolf Pack
Tuesday, December 2nd – 10:00pm ET
Even though UC San Diego is undefeated while Nevada already has three losses, we still rate the Wolf Pack as the better team from the better conference, so we are giving the points at home in Reno on Tuesday.
Beat Nobody of Note
The Tritons are having their best year since joining Division I for the 2020-21 season, currently sitting undefeated at 7-0. However, they are 101st overall on Kenpom due to not beating any team ranked higher than 121st, including one sub-division school, making tonight’s game their toughest of the season, and in a true road game to boot.
Sure, UCSD ranks an amazing second in the land in eFG% at 62.9% while ranking fourth in 3-pount shooting and 14th in 2-point shooting. But we mentioned the weak schedule faced, a schedule ranked 241st overall and 252nd in Kenpom defensive components. They also played in just one true road game, which was their closest call in a five-point win at 155th ranked Fresno State.
Competitive Against Tougher
Nevada is off to a nondescript 5-3 start, but they have faced the much tougher schedule ranked more than 100 places higher than the Tritons’ slate, at 129th. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack return home after perhaps their best game of the season on Friday, beating what we feel is a good San Franisco team 81-65 on a neutral floor.
Two of the three losses have come to teams ranked in the Kenpom Top 60, a caliber that UCSD has yet to face this season, let alone beat. And let us not forget that Nevada hails from the much stronger conference, with the Mountain West ranked sixth overall per Kenpom, making it the highest ranked conference after the Power 5! Meanwhile, the Big West ranks just 15th.
It seems to us that this line is deflated due to the records of these two teams, as well as the Tritons’ unsustainable shooting early on. Thus, we are betting Nevada at a manageable number at home.
THE PICK
Nevada -4.5 -104 at Bookmaker
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
