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NCAA Basketball Picks for Tuesday: Cardinals to Tame Wildcats in Louisville
We are 2-0 with our NCAA Basketball write-ups so far as well as on an 18-4 All-Sports run after another going 2-1 in college football on Saturday. We now return with three NCAAB plays for Tuesday, highlighted by Kentucky vs. Louisville on ESPN at 8:00pm ET.
Toledo Rockets vs. Wright State Raiders
Tuesday, November 11th – 7:00pm ET
In an Ohio intrastate battle on Tuesday, we look for the Horizon League to get a relatively safe non-conference win with Wright State at home in Fairborn hosting Toledo out of the MAC.
Rockets Playing No Defense So Far
The Rockets are hitting the road after losing two games to begin the season, with both losses coming at home, which is certainly a bad sign. And it is not as if the home losses came against great competition either, falling to South Alabama (188th on Kenpom) and Marshall (144th). Moreover, it is easy to see why they are 0-2 given they are one of the worst defensive teams in the country.
There are currently 365 teams in Division I basketball, and Toledo enters this game 347th per Kenpom in defensive efficiency and 336th in eFG% allowed. Now, we get that Wright State is only 173rd in offensive efficiency, but they hung tough in a 77-67 loss on the road at California last game, easily the best opponent either of these teams has faced so far.
Raiders Can Do Better Offensively
The Raiders enter at 1-1 after opening the season with an easy 86-37 win over a sub-division team called Franklin prior to the competitive loss at Cal. Obviously not much can be gleamed from beating such an inferior foe in the opener, but the defense did hold the Golden Bears to a mere 41.8% shooting from the floor in the loss at Berkeley, with the final margin coming down to Cal outscoring Toledo 26-10 from the free throw line.
They now face a Toledo team that is above the national average of 50.5% on eFG% at 52.5%, but the breakdown of that is ranking a commendable 51st in 3-point shooting and a poor 255th in 2-point shooting. The problem with that here is 3-point defense is a strength for Wright State, which ranks 47th in 3-point defense after limiting a better team in Cal to 5-for-21 shooting beyond the arc.
And of course, we expect the Wright offense to perform closer to their easy opening win now facing a Rockets’ defense that is not really that much better than a sub-division team.
We think that Wright State is better on both ends of the court, and they played well in the only game either squad has played against a team with a pulse. Add playing at home and bet on Wright State as moderate favorites.
THE PICK
Wright State -5.5 -114 at Heritage
Morehead State Eagles vs Clemson Tigers
Tuesday, November 11th – 7:00pm ET
We believe that Clemson can approach 100 points in this game playing at home against Morehead State. But while we have no interest in giving nearly 30 points with a prohibitive favorite, we do think this is a rather light total, so we are betting on the Over with the Tigers doing most of the heavy lifting.
Clemson Almost Reached 100 Last Game
Clemson has opened the season with two easy wins over New Hampshire by an 88-38 score and then 97-59 over Gardner-Webb. Yes, those two opponents are not among the Who’s Who of the nation’s elite, but the Tigers now get one more cupcake here with Morehead State ranked 284th on Kenpom before traveling to Georgetown for their first real test on Saturday.
And we once again see Clemson getting close to 100 points here just like last game. After all, this is a team currently ranked 30th in offensive efficiency facing a Morehead team ranked 242nd in defensive efficiency. The Tigers have excelled in ball protection ranking third in the nation in turnover percentage at a mere 6.5%, a feat made more impressive by playing at a faster than average pace offensively at 15.4 seconds per possession (national average 16.6 seconds).
Now, Clemson is not a good perimeter shooting team, and that should be their offensive downfall once they face stiffer competition. But for this one more game at least, they can dominate closer to the basket, ranking 27th in 2-point shooting at a hefty 64.4% while facing an Eagles team ranked 228th in 2-point defense.
Mid 50s Should be Enough
Since we fully expect Clemson to reach the mid-90s in this game, that would only leave Morehead State to score in the mid-50s for us to cash this Over ticket. Well, if you discount an 89-84 opening win over sub-division Midway, they still easily exceeded the points needed here in their two losses againsr stiff competition.
First, they lost 81-65 against Wake Forest, and then they were involved in a track meet at Georgia losing 120-81. Keep in mind that Georgia team is comparable to Clemson in offensive efficiency at 29th, so that end-result bodes well for Clemson scoring at will in this spot. Yes, Clemson plays better defense than any Morehead opponents so far, but that loses significance with the Tigers expected to be cruising with a big lead and being lax on defense late.
In the end, look for Clemson to score a bare minimum of 90 points and probably more, with Morehead State doing enough with not much needed from their side to go Over this total.
THE PICK
Over 147.5 -105 at Bet105
Kentucky Wildcats vs Louisville Cardinals
Tuesday, November 11th – 8:00pm ET
In the Battle of Kentucky and one of the marquee games of the night, we are expecting Louisville to prevail at home in KFC Yum! Center over Kentucky.
Unabated Offense Key at Home
On paper, this matchup between the Louisville offense and the Kentucky defense looks like a wash with each unit ranked fourth in the country in efficiency. However, a dissection of the Kentucky defense points to what we feel is the biggest key to this contest, with that being Kentucky’s lack of pressure applied so far.
To wit, the Wildcats rank 282nd in defensive turnover percentage at 14.5%. well below the national average of 18.1%. And keep in mind that low turnover rate has come while facing two soft opponents in Nicholls and Valparaiso. Now, we respect that ranking fourth in defensive efficiency without the help of turnovers points to great man-to-man defense, but we feel that defense will be tested here in the first real test of the season.
You see, Louisville’s great offensive efficiency comes while playing at the third fastest pace in the land, with an average possession length of just 12.8 seconds! Thus, the Wildcats may not be able to adjust in time defensively without the aid of turnovers after facing two plodding teams to begin the year. Thus, the Cardinals may be practically unabated on offense in front of a raucous home crowd.
Kentucky #1 on Kenpom?
While we totally get that Kentucky is currently #1 on Kenpom, we do not expect that to last as the competition gets tougher, and the Wildcats do have a difficult non-conference schedule coming up. In fact, we obviously feel that they will no longer be #1 after this game. This is not to say they are not a great team however and they are well balanced, also ranking 11th in offensive efficiency.
But just like their inability to force turnovers is a major caveat on defense, they also have a fatal flaw on offense with that being 3-point shooting. The Cats rank 168th from beyond the arc at a mere 32.7%, and again, that has been against weak competition. We think those struggles will continue against a Louisville team allowing a lowly 28.3% success rate on 3-point attempts.
We think that will make things difficult to keep up if Louisville scores as quickly as we expect on their offensive end.
So, in the end, in a game where these teams rank relatively similar in other areas, it appears that Kentucky is the team with the two biggest flaws with one on each end of the court. Add an expected electric environment at home and give the points with Louisville.
THE PICK
Louisville -4 -108 at Heritage
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We are 2-0 with our NCAA Basketball write-ups so far as well as on an 18-4 All-Sports run after another going 2-1 in college football on Saturday. We now return with three NCAAB plays for Tuesday, highlighted by Kentucky vs. Louisville on ESPN at 8:00pm ET.
Toledo Rockets vs. Wright State Raiders
Tuesday, November 11th – 7:00pm ET
In an Ohio intrastate battle on Tuesday, we look for the Horizon League to get a relatively safe non-conference win with Wright State at home in Fairborn hosting Toledo out of the MAC.
Rockets Playing No Defense So Far
The Rockets are hitting the road after losing two games to begin the season, with both losses coming at home, which is certainly a bad sign. And it is not as if the home losses came against great competition either, falling to South Alabama (188th on Kenpom) and Marshall (144th). Moreover, it is easy to see why they are 0-2 given they are one of the worst defensive teams in the country.
There are currently 365 teams in Division I basketball, and Toledo enters this game 347th per Kenpom in defensive efficiency and 336th in eFG% allowed. Now, we get that Wright State is only 173rd in offensive efficiency, but they hung tough in a 77-67 loss on the road at California last game, easily the best opponent either of these teams has faced so far.
Raiders Can Do Better Offensively
The Raiders enter at 1-1 after opening the season with an easy 86-37 win over a sub-division team called Franklin prior to the competitive loss at Cal. Obviously not much can be gleamed from beating such an inferior foe in the opener, but the defense did hold the Golden Bears to a mere 41.8% shooting from the floor in the loss at Berkeley, with the final margin coming down to Cal outscoring Toledo 26-10 from the free throw line.
They now face a Toledo team that is above the national average of 50.5% on eFG% at 52.5%, but the breakdown of that is ranking a commendable 51st in 3-point shooting and a poor 255th in 2-point shooting. The problem with that here is 3-point defense is a strength for Wright State, which ranks 47th in 3-point defense after limiting a better team in Cal to 5-for-21 shooting beyond the arc.
And of course, we expect the Wright offense to perform closer to their easy opening win now facing a Rockets’ defense that is not really that much better than a sub-division team.
We think that Wright State is better on both ends of the court, and they played well in the only game either squad has played against a team with a pulse. Add playing at home and bet on Wright State as moderate favorites.
THE PICK
Wright State -5.5 -114 at Heritage
Morehead State Eagles vs Clemson Tigers
Tuesday, November 11th – 7:00pm ET
We believe that Clemson can approach 100 points in this game playing at home against Morehead State. But while we have no interest in giving nearly 30 points with a prohibitive favorite, we do think this is a rather light total, so we are betting on the Over with the Tigers doing most of the heavy lifting.
Clemson Almost Reached 100 Last Game
Clemson has opened the season with two easy wins over New Hampshire by an 88-38 score and then 97-59 over Gardner-Webb. Yes, those two opponents are not among the Who’s Who of the nation’s elite, but the Tigers now get one more cupcake here with Morehead State ranked 284th on Kenpom before traveling to Georgetown for their first real test on Saturday.
And we once again see Clemson getting close to 100 points here just like last game. After all, this is a team currently ranked 30th in offensive efficiency facing a Morehead team ranked 242nd in defensive efficiency. The Tigers have excelled in ball protection ranking third in the nation in turnover percentage at a mere 6.5%, a feat made more impressive by playing at a faster than average pace offensively at 15.4 seconds per possession (national average 16.6 seconds).
Now, Clemson is not a good perimeter shooting team, and that should be their offensive downfall once they face stiffer competition. But for this one more game at least, they can dominate closer to the basket, ranking 27th in 2-point shooting at a hefty 64.4% while facing an Eagles team ranked 228th in 2-point defense.
Mid 50s Should be Enough
Since we fully expect Clemson to reach the mid-90s in this game, that would only leave Morehead State to score in the mid-50s for us to cash this Over ticket. Well, if you discount an 89-84 opening win over sub-division Midway, they still easily exceeded the points needed here in their two losses againsr stiff competition.
First, they lost 81-65 against Wake Forest, and then they were involved in a track meet at Georgia losing 120-81. Keep in mind that Georgia team is comparable to Clemson in offensive efficiency at 29th, so that end-result bodes well for Clemson scoring at will in this spot. Yes, Clemson plays better defense than any Morehead opponents so far, but that loses significance with the Tigers expected to be cruising with a big lead and being lax on defense late.
In the end, look for Clemson to score a bare minimum of 90 points and probably more, with Morehead State doing enough with not much needed from their side to go Over this total.
THE PICK
Over 147.5 -105 at Bet105
Kentucky Wildcats vs Louisville Cardinals
Tuesday, November 11th – 8:00pm ET
In the Battle of Kentucky and one of the marquee games of the night, we are expecting Louisville to prevail at home in KFC Yum! Center over Kentucky.
Unabated Offense Key at Home
On paper, this matchup between the Louisville offense and the Kentucky defense looks like a wash with each unit ranked fourth in the country in efficiency. However, a dissection of the Kentucky defense points to what we feel is the biggest key to this contest, with that being Kentucky’s lack of pressure applied so far.
To wit, the Wildcats rank 282nd in defensive turnover percentage at 14.5%. well below the national average of 18.1%. And keep in mind that low turnover rate has come while facing two soft opponents in Nicholls and Valparaiso. Now, we respect that ranking fourth in defensive efficiency without the help of turnovers points to great man-to-man defense, but we feel that defense will be tested here in the first real test of the season.
You see, Louisville’s great offensive efficiency comes while playing at the third fastest pace in the land, with an average possession length of just 12.8 seconds! Thus, the Wildcats may not be able to adjust in time defensively without the aid of turnovers after facing two plodding teams to begin the year. Thus, the Cardinals may be practically unabated on offense in front of a raucous home crowd.
Kentucky #1 on Kenpom?
While we totally get that Kentucky is currently #1 on Kenpom, we do not expect that to last as the competition gets tougher, and the Wildcats do have a difficult non-conference schedule coming up. In fact, we obviously feel that they will no longer be #1 after this game. This is not to say they are not a great team however and they are well balanced, also ranking 11th in offensive efficiency.
But just like their inability to force turnovers is a major caveat on defense, they also have a fatal flaw on offense with that being 3-point shooting. The Cats rank 168th from beyond the arc at a mere 32.7%, and again, that has been against weak competition. We think those struggles will continue against a Louisville team allowing a lowly 28.3% success rate on 3-point attempts.
We think that will make things difficult to keep up if Louisville scores as quickly as we expect on their offensive end.
So, in the end, in a game where these teams rank relatively similar in other areas, it appears that Kentucky is the team with the two biggest flaws with one on each end of the court. Add an expected electric environment at home and give the points with Louisville.
THE PICK
Louisville -4 -108 at Heritage
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
, LT!
