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NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Bruins to Stomp on Spiders at Home
We are now 28-16 across All Sports with all our write-ups after a winning 2-1 night in NCAA Basketball Tuesday. That makes is 7-6 with our NCAAB write-ups (but we are 42-26 in our NCAAB Picks thread) and we have one pick for Wednesday in the Richmond vs. Belmont matchup.
Richmond Spiders vs. Belmont Bruins
Wednesday, December 3rd – 7:30pm ET
We see a bigger blowout than the posted line implies in Nashville Wednesday night, where we are giving the points with Belmont when the Bruins host Richmond.
Belmont Great on Both Ends So Far
Belmont is a perfect 8-0 to begin the season and is now safely in the Kenpom Top 100 ranking 76th overall. No, they will not go undefeated all year as they have faced a schedule ranked 340th per Kenpom, but the good news there is that they are not moving up in class much here against a Richmond team that has faced an even easier schedule.
And the Bruins have excelled on both ends of the floor in the early going. Offensively, they are second in the land in eFG% at a blistering 62.2%, as they have been practically unstoppable closer to the basket while making an obscene 64.3% of their 2-point shots. And defenses cannot simply counter by flooding the paint either, as Belmont is also 20th in 3-point shooting at 39.7%.
The news is just as good on defense, where the Bruins rank 14th in eFG% allowed, 22nd in 3-point defense (27.4%) and 31st in 2-point defense (45.1%). Yes, there will eventually be regression on both ends, but we do not think that will begin tonight against the Spiders,
Spiders Don’t Match Up Well Defensively
Richmond is also off to a nice start at 6-1, but that has come against a schedule ranked 361st out of 365 Division I teams! They have yet to face a team ranked higher than 121st, and one of their wins was against a sub-division team. Moreover, the one loss was a bad one against 169th ranked Furman at a neutral site. The Spiders now step up against a Top 100 foe here in a true road game.
Despite the ridiculously easy schedule, the Richmond defense is just 142nd in eFG% allowed, but more critically regarding this game, 258th in 2-point defense. Thus, they should have no answers inside against a team that has dominated teams from inside the arc. And it certainly does not help to be at a size disadvantage despite having the tallest player in the court in the 6’11” Mike Walz.
That is because the rest of the Richmond lineup all stands at 6’6” and below, whereas Belmont has three players that stand at 6’9”. Yes, Walz is a good defender, but he can’t defend all three of them.
In the end, we see Belmont continuing to shoot lights out like they have all season, especially inside. We are betting on the Bruins as moderate home favorites, as we expect all the easy looks to lead to a double-digit win.
THE PICK
Belmont -6.5 -105 at Bookmaker
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We are now 28-16 across All Sports with all our write-ups after a winning 2-1 night in NCAA Basketball Tuesday. That makes is 7-6 with our NCAAB write-ups (but we are 42-26 in our NCAAB Picks thread) and we have one pick for Wednesday in the Richmond vs. Belmont matchup.
Richmond Spiders vs. Belmont Bruins
Wednesday, December 3rd – 7:30pm ET
We see a bigger blowout than the posted line implies in Nashville Wednesday night, where we are giving the points with Belmont when the Bruins host Richmond.
Belmont Great on Both Ends So Far
Belmont is a perfect 8-0 to begin the season and is now safely in the Kenpom Top 100 ranking 76th overall. No, they will not go undefeated all year as they have faced a schedule ranked 340th per Kenpom, but the good news there is that they are not moving up in class much here against a Richmond team that has faced an even easier schedule.
And the Bruins have excelled on both ends of the floor in the early going. Offensively, they are second in the land in eFG% at a blistering 62.2%, as they have been practically unstoppable closer to the basket while making an obscene 64.3% of their 2-point shots. And defenses cannot simply counter by flooding the paint either, as Belmont is also 20th in 3-point shooting at 39.7%.
The news is just as good on defense, where the Bruins rank 14th in eFG% allowed, 22nd in 3-point defense (27.4%) and 31st in 2-point defense (45.1%). Yes, there will eventually be regression on both ends, but we do not think that will begin tonight against the Spiders,
Spiders Don’t Match Up Well Defensively
Richmond is also off to a nice start at 6-1, but that has come against a schedule ranked 361st out of 365 Division I teams! They have yet to face a team ranked higher than 121st, and one of their wins was against a sub-division team. Moreover, the one loss was a bad one against 169th ranked Furman at a neutral site. The Spiders now step up against a Top 100 foe here in a true road game.
Despite the ridiculously easy schedule, the Richmond defense is just 142nd in eFG% allowed, but more critically regarding this game, 258th in 2-point defense. Thus, they should have no answers inside against a team that has dominated teams from inside the arc. And it certainly does not help to be at a size disadvantage despite having the tallest player in the court in the 6’11” Mike Walz.
That is because the rest of the Richmond lineup all stands at 6’6” and below, whereas Belmont has three players that stand at 6’9”. Yes, Walz is a good defender, but he can’t defend all three of them.
In the end, we see Belmont continuing to shoot lights out like they have all season, especially inside. We are betting on the Bruins as moderate home favorites, as we expect all the easy looks to lead to a double-digit win.
THE PICK
Belmont -6.5 -105 at Bookmaker
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
