LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 10,944
NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Scarcity of Scoring in Piscataway
We won with our first NCAA Basketball selection of the season Tuesday, making us 15-3 in our last 18 write-ups across all sports. We now return with another NCAAB play for Wednesday. Please note that we plan to return to our customary three NCAAB plays per day two days per week beginning next week, after teams have had a couple of games under their belts.
Rider Broncs vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Wednesday, November 5th – 6:00pm ET
We feel that points may be hard to come by in Piscataway on Wednesday evening, so we are supporting the Under when Rutgers hosts Rider.
Broncs Still Look Offensively Challenged
Rider comes of a season where they finished 259th in the country in offensive efficiency per Kenpom and 312th in eFG% at 47.7% while playing at an excruciatingly slow pace ranking 310th in Tempo Rating at 65.0. As you might expect with a combination like that, the end-result was a paltry 53.0 points per game.
Well, it looked like nothing changed in the season opener at Virginia on Monday where they were blown out 87-53. In fact, that contest greatly resembled a typical game from last season, with Rider exactly matching their dismal scoring average of 2024-25 while posting an atrocious 35.7% eFG% in a 64-possession game. Kenpom currently has the Broncs ranked 306th in offensive efficiency after one game.
Now, we totally get that Rider was outclassed by a Virginia team that is commonly renowned for great defense. However, the Cavaliers are 66th in defensive efficiency early on while Rutgers begins its season tonight ranked 49th. In other words, things will probably not get any easier for Rider offensively here.
Rutgers Has a Lot to Replace
This is the season opener for the Scarlet Knights, who finished with a losing record of 15-17 last season and 8-12 inside the Big Ten. But the bigger story regarding this debut is that Rutgers lost its top four scorers from last year and only four total players are returning from that entire roster, accompanied by 10 new faces including seven freshmen.
And frankly, we are not enthusiastic about the additions offensively. Junior guard Tariq Francis, an NJIT transfer that led the American East in scoring last year at 19.2 points per game, is probably the best of the imports by a wide margin. However, we do not really see him getting much help from the rest of the lineup unless a freshman or two makes an immediate impact, and even if that is the case, it may take a few games for the entire unit to mesh.
Moreover, coach Steve Pikiell said that the team will put a higher priority on defense this season. It does appear to be physical enough, as while the squad lacks experience, it is not lacking in size, ranking 17th in the land with an average height of 6’6.7”. And the preseason defensive efficiency rating is a good sign.
Frankly, we do not see Rider getting out of the 50s here when combining their inefficient offense and the expected improvement of the Rutgers defense. At the same time, we do not see Rutgers compensating for that with great offense of their own, so bet on the Under in Jersey Mike’s Arena.
THE PICK
Under 142.5 -108 at Heritage
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We won with our first NCAA Basketball selection of the season Tuesday, making us 15-3 in our last 18 write-ups across all sports. We now return with another NCAAB play for Wednesday. Please note that we plan to return to our customary three NCAAB plays per day two days per week beginning next week, after teams have had a couple of games under their belts.
Rider Broncs vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Wednesday, November 5th – 6:00pm ET
We feel that points may be hard to come by in Piscataway on Wednesday evening, so we are supporting the Under when Rutgers hosts Rider.
Broncs Still Look Offensively Challenged
Rider comes of a season where they finished 259th in the country in offensive efficiency per Kenpom and 312th in eFG% at 47.7% while playing at an excruciatingly slow pace ranking 310th in Tempo Rating at 65.0. As you might expect with a combination like that, the end-result was a paltry 53.0 points per game.
Well, it looked like nothing changed in the season opener at Virginia on Monday where they were blown out 87-53. In fact, that contest greatly resembled a typical game from last season, with Rider exactly matching their dismal scoring average of 2024-25 while posting an atrocious 35.7% eFG% in a 64-possession game. Kenpom currently has the Broncs ranked 306th in offensive efficiency after one game.
Now, we totally get that Rider was outclassed by a Virginia team that is commonly renowned for great defense. However, the Cavaliers are 66th in defensive efficiency early on while Rutgers begins its season tonight ranked 49th. In other words, things will probably not get any easier for Rider offensively here.
Rutgers Has a Lot to Replace
This is the season opener for the Scarlet Knights, who finished with a losing record of 15-17 last season and 8-12 inside the Big Ten. But the bigger story regarding this debut is that Rutgers lost its top four scorers from last year and only four total players are returning from that entire roster, accompanied by 10 new faces including seven freshmen.
And frankly, we are not enthusiastic about the additions offensively. Junior guard Tariq Francis, an NJIT transfer that led the American East in scoring last year at 19.2 points per game, is probably the best of the imports by a wide margin. However, we do not really see him getting much help from the rest of the lineup unless a freshman or two makes an immediate impact, and even if that is the case, it may take a few games for the entire unit to mesh.
Moreover, coach Steve Pikiell said that the team will put a higher priority on defense this season. It does appear to be physical enough, as while the squad lacks experience, it is not lacking in size, ranking 17th in the land with an average height of 6’6.7”. And the preseason defensive efficiency rating is a good sign.
Frankly, we do not see Rider getting out of the 50s here when combining their inefficient offense and the expected improvement of the Rutgers defense. At the same time, we do not see Rutgers compensating for that with great offense of their own, so bet on the Under in Jersey Mike’s Arena.
THE PICK
Under 142.5 -108 at Heritage
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
