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NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Plodding Pace Means an Under in Utah
We dropped to 37-30 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball play Tuesday. We look to bounce back Wednesday with a pick in Nevada vs. Utah State on CBSN at 10:00 ET.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Utah State Aggies
Wednesday, January 14th – 10:00pm ET
We think that there is an inflated total in the Mountain West Conference on Wednesday night. Therefore, we are backing the Under when Nevada visits Utah State at 10 PM ET on CBS Sports Network.
Slow Pace for Nevada
Nevada is off to a nice start this season at 12-4 and they are 4-1 in Mountain West play. But while they are above average of offensive efficiency, ranking 64th at 117.3 (national average 108.6), they rank a weak 231st in eFG% at only 49.8%. Furthermore, they play at a very methodical pace, ranking 303rd in Tempo Rating and 252nd in average possession length. In fact, they are 12th and last in Tempo Rating inside the Mountain during conference play.
The main reason that the Wolf Pack’s good offensive efficiency is outperforming their eFG% is their outstanding ball protection, as they are seventh in the country in offensive turnover percentage. However, that rating will be put to the test tonight against a stout Utah State defense that is ninth in the land in turnover percentage forced at 22.4% (national average 17.3%).
So, combining more turnovers expected than usual, their typical slow pace which may be even slower as a double-digit underdog, and their poor shooting, we see Nevada topping out in the mid-60s in this contest.
USU is Top 40 Defensively
Utah State is 14-1 overall, a perfect 5-0 inside the Mountain and currently nationally ranked, at 23rd on the AP Poll. Moreover, that ranking is validated by being 21st overall on Kenpom. The Aggies are very well balanced, ranking 17th in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency, with the latter fueled by the turnover rate referenced earlier. They are also an above average 60th in eFG% allowed at 47.9%, which should also contribute to Nevada’s scoring woes.
Now, we totally get that Utah State can score, ranking 12th in the country at 87.0 points per game. And if we are right about Nevada being held to around 65 points, Utah State reaching its scoring average would line up with this posted total. However, we mentioned Nevada wanting to slow this game down more than usual while trying to hang around as a current underdog of around 13 points.
Given the expected excruciating pace, we see Utah State topping out at around 80 points, and something like an 80-65 final would be about seven points shy of this posted total. So, bet on the Under in Logan Wednesday night.
THE PICK
Under 152.5 -108 at Heritage
We dropped to 37-30 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball play Tuesday. We look to bounce back Wednesday with a pick in Nevada vs. Utah State on CBSN at 10:00 ET.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Utah State Aggies
Wednesday, January 14th – 10:00pm ET
We think that there is an inflated total in the Mountain West Conference on Wednesday night. Therefore, we are backing the Under when Nevada visits Utah State at 10 PM ET on CBS Sports Network.
Slow Pace for Nevada
Nevada is off to a nice start this season at 12-4 and they are 4-1 in Mountain West play. But while they are above average of offensive efficiency, ranking 64th at 117.3 (national average 108.6), they rank a weak 231st in eFG% at only 49.8%. Furthermore, they play at a very methodical pace, ranking 303rd in Tempo Rating and 252nd in average possession length. In fact, they are 12th and last in Tempo Rating inside the Mountain during conference play.
The main reason that the Wolf Pack’s good offensive efficiency is outperforming their eFG% is their outstanding ball protection, as they are seventh in the country in offensive turnover percentage. However, that rating will be put to the test tonight against a stout Utah State defense that is ninth in the land in turnover percentage forced at 22.4% (national average 17.3%).
So, combining more turnovers expected than usual, their typical slow pace which may be even slower as a double-digit underdog, and their poor shooting, we see Nevada topping out in the mid-60s in this contest.
USU is Top 40 Defensively
Utah State is 14-1 overall, a perfect 5-0 inside the Mountain and currently nationally ranked, at 23rd on the AP Poll. Moreover, that ranking is validated by being 21st overall on Kenpom. The Aggies are very well balanced, ranking 17th in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency, with the latter fueled by the turnover rate referenced earlier. They are also an above average 60th in eFG% allowed at 47.9%, which should also contribute to Nevada’s scoring woes.
Now, we totally get that Utah State can score, ranking 12th in the country at 87.0 points per game. And if we are right about Nevada being held to around 65 points, Utah State reaching its scoring average would line up with this posted total. However, we mentioned Nevada wanting to slow this game down more than usual while trying to hang around as a current underdog of around 13 points.
Given the expected excruciating pace, we see Utah State topping out at around 80 points, and something like an 80-65 final would be about seven points shy of this posted total. So, bet on the Under in Logan Wednesday night.
THE PICK
Under 152.5 -108 at Heritage
