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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Bonnies to Stay Close to Flyers in Dayton
We are 41-33-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after a picket fence week in NCAA Basketball last week (1-1-1). Tuesday, we have a play in the Atlantic 10 on St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton on CBS Sports Network.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Dayton Flyers
Tuesday, February 3rd – 7:00pm ET
There is a surprising lack of major-conference matchups on Tuesday, so we are delving into a nationally televised Atlantic 10 matchup. In a game that we expect to be much closer than the posted line implies, we are taking the points with St. Bonaventure when they pay a visit to Dayton on CBS Sports Network.
Dayton Not Flying Very High
Dayton was off to a nice start this season once sitting at 14-4 and 5-0 inside the conference, but they are currently on a 4-game losing streak to drop to 14-8 overall and 5-4 in the Atlantic 10. Their defense has been atrocious in the last three games, first allowing exactly 81 points to two teams not known for efficient offense in Saint Joseph’s on the road and Rhode Island here at home. Then, they were lit up for over a C-Note in a 102-71 blowout loss at Saint Louis.
Yes, the Flyers are still ranked a commendable 49th nationally in defensive efficiency, but their fatal flaw all year has been defending the perimeter, where they rank a dismal 311th in 3-point defense allowing a 36.6% success rate. That makes this a tough matchup against a Bonnies offense that shoots well beyond the arc.
Dayton does not rate as well offensively, ranking 149th in efficiency, and their two biggest weaknesses on offense happen to be two strengths of the St. Bonaventure offense, meaning the Bonnies are expected to have huge edges on both areas. To wit, the Flyers rank 240th in 3-point shooting at 32.7% and they do not generate many second chances ranking 306th in offensive rebounding percentage.
3-Point Shooting and Second Chances for Bonnies
St. Bonaventure enters with a winning record at 13-9, but they started 0-5 in conference play and are now 2-7 inside the A10. However, they are safely above average in offensive efficiency at 113.4 (national average 109.6) and we feel they will score enough points in this matchup to take this game down to the wire at minimum if not pull the outright upset.
In stark contrast to Dayton, the Bonnies rank 25th nationally in 3-point shooting at 37.5%, and they get the added benefit here of facing the lax Flyers’ perimeter defense mentioned earlier. Also, St. Bonaventure should dominate in second chances with a fine offensive rebounding percentage of 34.6% (national average 30.9%).
In the end, Dayton looks like a huge overlay at this price given their terrible defense the last three games and the Bonnies’ offensive edges in 3-point shooting and rebounding. Bet on St. Bonaventure as decided underdogs in what should be a close game that they can possibly win.
THE PICK
St. Bonaventure +8.5 -106 at Bet105
We are 41-33-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after a picket fence week in NCAA Basketball last week (1-1-1). Tuesday, we have a play in the Atlantic 10 on St. Bonaventure vs. Dayton on CBS Sports Network.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Dayton Flyers
Tuesday, February 3rd – 7:00pm ET
There is a surprising lack of major-conference matchups on Tuesday, so we are delving into a nationally televised Atlantic 10 matchup. In a game that we expect to be much closer than the posted line implies, we are taking the points with St. Bonaventure when they pay a visit to Dayton on CBS Sports Network.
Dayton Not Flying Very High
Dayton was off to a nice start this season once sitting at 14-4 and 5-0 inside the conference, but they are currently on a 4-game losing streak to drop to 14-8 overall and 5-4 in the Atlantic 10. Their defense has been atrocious in the last three games, first allowing exactly 81 points to two teams not known for efficient offense in Saint Joseph’s on the road and Rhode Island here at home. Then, they were lit up for over a C-Note in a 102-71 blowout loss at Saint Louis.
Yes, the Flyers are still ranked a commendable 49th nationally in defensive efficiency, but their fatal flaw all year has been defending the perimeter, where they rank a dismal 311th in 3-point defense allowing a 36.6% success rate. That makes this a tough matchup against a Bonnies offense that shoots well beyond the arc.
Dayton does not rate as well offensively, ranking 149th in efficiency, and their two biggest weaknesses on offense happen to be two strengths of the St. Bonaventure offense, meaning the Bonnies are expected to have huge edges on both areas. To wit, the Flyers rank 240th in 3-point shooting at 32.7% and they do not generate many second chances ranking 306th in offensive rebounding percentage.
3-Point Shooting and Second Chances for Bonnies
St. Bonaventure enters with a winning record at 13-9, but they started 0-5 in conference play and are now 2-7 inside the A10. However, they are safely above average in offensive efficiency at 113.4 (national average 109.6) and we feel they will score enough points in this matchup to take this game down to the wire at minimum if not pull the outright upset.
In stark contrast to Dayton, the Bonnies rank 25th nationally in 3-point shooting at 37.5%, and they get the added benefit here of facing the lax Flyers’ perimeter defense mentioned earlier. Also, St. Bonaventure should dominate in second chances with a fine offensive rebounding percentage of 34.6% (national average 30.9%).
In the end, Dayton looks like a huge overlay at this price given their terrible defense the last three games and the Bonnies’ offensive edges in 3-point shooting and rebounding. Bet on St. Bonaventure as decided underdogs in what should be a close game that they can possibly win.
THE PICK
St. Bonaventure +8.5 -106 at Bet105
