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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Nebraska to Husk Boilermakers at Home
We are now 42-34-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our last NCAA Basketball play last Wednesday. We now return on Tuesday with a selection on a huge Big Ten matchup in Purdue at Nebraska on Fox Sports 1.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Tuesday, February 10th – 7:00pm ET
We are expecting the home team to prevail at a cheap number in a battle of ranked teams in the Big Ten on Tuesday. We are banking on Nebraska when they host Purdue in Lincoln on FS1.
Ball Protection Crucial for Huskers
Nebraska is ranked seventh on the latest AP Poll, and although they are a little lower on Kenpom, they are still rated an excellent 12th overall. They started the season at 20-0 before losing back-to-back games, but neither of them is considered a bad loss.
First, they traveled to Ann Arbor and lost by just three points to the current #1 team on Kenpom in Michigan on the road. Then, in a terrible scheduling spot having to face current Kenpom #4 Illinois a few days after the Michigan heartbreak, they fell 78-69. That spot was doubly tough with the Illini seeking revenge after the Cornhuskers travelled to Champaign and upset Illinois earlier in the season.
The Huskers should now be better rested and fully focused on Purdue, having played just one game since the loss to Illinois on February 1st and not needing to exert much energy while handling Rutgers 80-68. That improved Nebraska to 21-2 overall and 10-2 inside the conference, and they are very well-balanced, ranking 29th in offensive efficiency and a better 11th in defensive efficiency.
But the biggest key to success here, besides playing at home in Pinnacle Bank Arena, should be a huge expected turnover edge. The Cornhuskers have been outstanding in ball protection, ranking seventh nationally in offensive turnover percentage at 13.0% (national average 17.0%) and leading the Big Ten in that department during league play at a scant 12.2%.
Purdue Struggled vs. Best Defense Faced
Now, Purdue is ranked 13th on the AP Poll despite having four losses (19-4) and they are one game behind Nebraska in Big Ten play at 9-3, yet they are ranked slightly higher on Kenpom at 10th overall. The Boilermakers are also well-balanced, ranking an outstanding third in offensive efficiency and 26th defensively.
One caveat though is that Purdue has faced just one defense in their first 23 games so far that is currently ranked in the Top 20 in defensive efficiency, and they put up a season-low point total in that game, an 81-58 blowout loss to Iowa State. Furthermore, that defeat was at home in West Lafayette, and they are now facing the second-best defense they have faced all year in enemy territory.
We also have major concerns about a passive Boilermakers’ defense ranked a weak 213th in turnover percentage forced while facing one of the best teams in the nation and the very best in the Big Ten in not turning the ball over.
That ability for Nebraska to run a basically unabated offense, combined with being at home and Purdue falling flat the only time they faced a defense this good, has us betting on the Cornhuskers as short home chalk.
THE PICK
Nebraska -2 -104 at Bookmaker
We are now 42-34-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our last NCAA Basketball play last Wednesday. We now return on Tuesday with a selection on a huge Big Ten matchup in Purdue at Nebraska on Fox Sports 1.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Tuesday, February 10th – 7:00pm ET
We are expecting the home team to prevail at a cheap number in a battle of ranked teams in the Big Ten on Tuesday. We are banking on Nebraska when they host Purdue in Lincoln on FS1.
Ball Protection Crucial for Huskers
Nebraska is ranked seventh on the latest AP Poll, and although they are a little lower on Kenpom, they are still rated an excellent 12th overall. They started the season at 20-0 before losing back-to-back games, but neither of them is considered a bad loss.
First, they traveled to Ann Arbor and lost by just three points to the current #1 team on Kenpom in Michigan on the road. Then, in a terrible scheduling spot having to face current Kenpom #4 Illinois a few days after the Michigan heartbreak, they fell 78-69. That spot was doubly tough with the Illini seeking revenge after the Cornhuskers travelled to Champaign and upset Illinois earlier in the season.
The Huskers should now be better rested and fully focused on Purdue, having played just one game since the loss to Illinois on February 1st and not needing to exert much energy while handling Rutgers 80-68. That improved Nebraska to 21-2 overall and 10-2 inside the conference, and they are very well-balanced, ranking 29th in offensive efficiency and a better 11th in defensive efficiency.
But the biggest key to success here, besides playing at home in Pinnacle Bank Arena, should be a huge expected turnover edge. The Cornhuskers have been outstanding in ball protection, ranking seventh nationally in offensive turnover percentage at 13.0% (national average 17.0%) and leading the Big Ten in that department during league play at a scant 12.2%.
Purdue Struggled vs. Best Defense Faced
Now, Purdue is ranked 13th on the AP Poll despite having four losses (19-4) and they are one game behind Nebraska in Big Ten play at 9-3, yet they are ranked slightly higher on Kenpom at 10th overall. The Boilermakers are also well-balanced, ranking an outstanding third in offensive efficiency and 26th defensively.
One caveat though is that Purdue has faced just one defense in their first 23 games so far that is currently ranked in the Top 20 in defensive efficiency, and they put up a season-low point total in that game, an 81-58 blowout loss to Iowa State. Furthermore, that defeat was at home in West Lafayette, and they are now facing the second-best defense they have faced all year in enemy territory.
We also have major concerns about a passive Boilermakers’ defense ranked a weak 213th in turnover percentage forced while facing one of the best teams in the nation and the very best in the Big Ten in not turning the ball over.
That ability for Nebraska to run a basically unabated offense, combined with being at home and Purdue falling flat the only time they faced a defense this good, has us betting on the Cornhuskers as short home chalk.
THE PICK
Nebraska -2 -104 at Bookmaker
