LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 11,510
NCAA Basketball Picks for Tuesday: Huskies to Chew on Gators at MSG
We are a good 29-18 across All Sports with all our write-ups after a 1-1 split in college football on Saturday. We look to improve on our 7-7 mark with our NCAA Basketball write-ups Tuesday (although we are 57-33-1 in our NCAAB Picks thread) with a selection in the huge matchup between Florida and Connecticut at MSG.
Florida Gators vs. Connecticut Huskies
Tuesday, December 9th – 9:00pm ET
There is a marquee matchup in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night, but we expect Connecticut to have an easier time than the line suggests. Thus, we are laying the points at a manageable number when the Huskies take on Florida on ESPN.
UConn Already Beat Better Teams
Connecticut comes in ranked fifth on the AP Poll and seventh on Kenpom at 8-1, with the lone loss coming to undefeated and current AP #1 Arizona by four points. Meanwhile, three of the wins were against #9 BYU and #11 Illinois at neutral sites, as well as #17 Kansas on the road in Allen Fieldhouse, which is always a difficult venue for visiting teams.
The Huskies are extremely well balanced, ranking 16th in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency with no real weaknesses in their Kenpom components. Just about the only concern there is ranking 60th in eFG%, although at a still good 55.5% (national average 51.0%). And the good news is that area should improve with Braylon Mullin getting healthier.
The five-star recruit is an excellent perimeter shooter that missed the start of the season with an ankle injury. However, his minutes have been going up and he scored 17 points in just 23 minutes in the win at Kansas last week while knocking down three 3-pointers. We think adding Mullin to the current rotation gives UConn an excellent chance to be cutting down the net as NCAA Champions come April.
Gators Can’t Shoot and Sloppy with Ball
Now, Florida already has three losses at 5-3, but to be fair, they are still ranked 14th overall on Kenpom. Two of the losses came to Arizona and Duke, but the third loss was not a great one against #56 TCU on a neutral court. Meanwhile, the best Kenpom win for the Gators so far was over #36 Miami, who are good but not of Connecticut’s caliber.
Also, unlike UConn, Florida has some major flaws that we think will spell their doom in this contest against a great team. The first area is in turnovers, where the Gators are dreadful on both ends of the court. They are sloppy with the basketball offensively ranking 268th in turnover percentage at 19.2% (national average 17.6%), and they apply no pressure defensively ranking 289th in turnover percentage forced at 15.1%.
Moreover, as if probably losing the turnover battle to a Huskies team that does need the help should prove fatal enough, Florida’s second major flaw is 3-poing shooting. The Gators rank 342nd out of 365 Division I teams beyond the arc at a dismal 27.4%, which would make it practically impossible to come back if Connecticut gets a big lead.
We do indeed see the Huskies getting off to a fast start and building a lead considering they always play well here at MSG, and then never looking back. Bet on UConn as modest favorites in New York City.
THE PICK
Connecticut -4.5 -111 at Heritage
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We are a good 29-18 across All Sports with all our write-ups after a 1-1 split in college football on Saturday. We look to improve on our 7-7 mark with our NCAA Basketball write-ups Tuesday (although we are 57-33-1 in our NCAAB Picks thread) with a selection in the huge matchup between Florida and Connecticut at MSG.
Florida Gators vs. Connecticut Huskies
Tuesday, December 9th – 9:00pm ET
There is a marquee matchup in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night, but we expect Connecticut to have an easier time than the line suggests. Thus, we are laying the points at a manageable number when the Huskies take on Florida on ESPN.
UConn Already Beat Better Teams
Connecticut comes in ranked fifth on the AP Poll and seventh on Kenpom at 8-1, with the lone loss coming to undefeated and current AP #1 Arizona by four points. Meanwhile, three of the wins were against #9 BYU and #11 Illinois at neutral sites, as well as #17 Kansas on the road in Allen Fieldhouse, which is always a difficult venue for visiting teams.
The Huskies are extremely well balanced, ranking 16th in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency with no real weaknesses in their Kenpom components. Just about the only concern there is ranking 60th in eFG%, although at a still good 55.5% (national average 51.0%). And the good news is that area should improve with Braylon Mullin getting healthier.
The five-star recruit is an excellent perimeter shooter that missed the start of the season with an ankle injury. However, his minutes have been going up and he scored 17 points in just 23 minutes in the win at Kansas last week while knocking down three 3-pointers. We think adding Mullin to the current rotation gives UConn an excellent chance to be cutting down the net as NCAA Champions come April.
Gators Can’t Shoot and Sloppy with Ball
Now, Florida already has three losses at 5-3, but to be fair, they are still ranked 14th overall on Kenpom. Two of the losses came to Arizona and Duke, but the third loss was not a great one against #56 TCU on a neutral court. Meanwhile, the best Kenpom win for the Gators so far was over #36 Miami, who are good but not of Connecticut’s caliber.
Also, unlike UConn, Florida has some major flaws that we think will spell their doom in this contest against a great team. The first area is in turnovers, where the Gators are dreadful on both ends of the court. They are sloppy with the basketball offensively ranking 268th in turnover percentage at 19.2% (national average 17.6%), and they apply no pressure defensively ranking 289th in turnover percentage forced at 15.1%.
Moreover, as if probably losing the turnover battle to a Huskies team that does need the help should prove fatal enough, Florida’s second major flaw is 3-poing shooting. The Gators rank 342nd out of 365 Division I teams beyond the arc at a dismal 27.4%, which would make it practically impossible to come back if Connecticut gets a big lead.
We do indeed see the Huskies getting off to a fast start and building a lead considering they always play well here at MSG, and then never looking back. Bet on UConn as modest favorites in New York City.
THE PICK
Connecticut -4.5 -111 at Heritage
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
